From die Zeit, Germany
http://watchingamerica.com/News/38924/obama%E2%80%99s-last-lap-kick/ Obama’s Last-Lap KickAmerica’s president will hand the war off to the Afghans; but first, he wants to win a little. Barack Obama will “begin” withdrawing American troops from Afghanistan in 18 months. In 2012, he’ll run for re-election. When the troop withdrawal will end is anyone’s guess. But first, the president plans to intensify military operations in the southern part of the country over the next eight months.
The Taliban is expected to bide its time. They might seem to be simple guerrillas, but they know the internal pressures being put on their opponent; the Americans were, after all, their not-so-secret allies in the war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.
Taliban fundamentalists have returned to much of the country. The Afghan people are, by no means, welcoming them with open arms, but the most corrupt government in modern times holds power in Kabul. President Karzai responded to Western pleas to root out the corruption of his officials and his own family with rigged elections. Even beyond 2011, the West will still lack the money and the national, cultural and linguistic knowledge necessary to bring peace to the nation, much less make a functioning democracy out of it; the country will inwardly collapse.
Political debate in the U.S. next year will be dominated by Congressional elections.
The rhetoric of power politics - and not the depressing realities of America’s ability to intervene in foreign lands - will determine electoral outcomes. If Obama’s tactical dash to the finish line shows signs of succeeding early enough, his party will benefit. But a complete withdrawal of troops after 2011 won’t happen as precipitously as it did in Vietnam in any case. In the politically almost-cynical military chess game, one fact remains indisputable: Completely withdrawing all U.S. troops from the region could easily result in delivering the Pakistani government, with its nuclear arsenal, into the hands of Taliban sympathizers in the military and secret service. The possibility that al-Qaida couldn’t get its hands on a nuclear weapon could no longer be assured. At least, that’s the view of some of Obama’s advisers, as well as that of his special envoy to Afghanistan-Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke. Their concerns should be taken seriously.