Reconciliation: A Play in Two Acts

[grytpype]

OK, so now we know, there aren't 60 votes in the Senate for any kind of public option.

Reconciliation is now the only way to get a public option passed.

We know it, and the 40 or so Senators against any kind of public option know it.

We're not hearing anything from the leadership about reconciliation. Should we be worried that we're not hearing anything?

Here's why (maybe) the silence doesn't mean reconciliation is dead.

In order to use reconciliation, some sort of HCR bill has to pass the Senate so it can be reconciled in the conference.

If the Anti-Public Option Senators know that Reid intends to use reconciliation to pass a Public Option against their wishes, they can block it by filibustering any HCR bill. In other words, no HCR bill comes up for a vote in the Senate. That means no HCR for a generation.

To get the necessary bill past the Antis, it just might be necessary to let them believe that reconciliation is not on the table. Once the bill is passed, the conference committee has a clear shot at reporting back a bill with a public option. That's Act One.

Act Two gets tricky. Measures affecting the budget such as a public option would have to separated from other measures such as regulatory reform. The budget-related measures cannot be filibustered, but the regulatory reform portion (not under reconciliation procedures) could be. Would the Antis filibuster the regulatory reforms they let go to the floor in Act One? We know now that nothing is beneath them.

The result is if reconciliation is used, the public option might be the only thing that could pass the Senate. No regulatory reform.

Thus in Act Two the choice becomes passing the public option or passing regulatory reform.

And in truth, the regulatory reform is the most important part.

You better believe the leadership has this gamed out already.

Those of you who think this is easy and could do a better job... get over yourself. This is the hardest legislative project in decades.

[liberalpragmatist]

1. I see no way you could do this in one Congress

Trying to get a reconciliation-ready bill with a Medicare opt-in or public option through right after you pass the regular bill is simply not going to happen. It's way too clever by half.

The only way this could work is if a Medicare opt-in or public option becomes a steady, continuing issue that the base pushes and that the Congressional Progressive Caucus and key senators can continue to support. Then I could see a reconciliation-ready bill for a public option or Medicare opt-in at 55 pass, but probably not for another couple of years, once this bill has passed and passions have cooled some.

[grytpype]

2. And that could happen!

If we get some HCR this Congress, even a very imperfect one, we can come back again and again to try to get more.

[liberalpragmatist]

3. I agree

But it would also require continued activism on this issue, because many congresspersons - even those who are sympathetic - will move on to other things, not wanting to deal with it again immediately.