Let's assume the Senate bill comes out as it stands now, warts and all.
Let's further assume that when the House and Senate committees get together to resolve the differences, they agree on a final bill more like the House bill -- including a public option.
At that point the final bill has to go back to the House and Senate for another vote, right? But can the final Senate vote be filibustered -- needing 60 votes to obtain cloture -- or is only 51 votes sufficient?
From my reading of the information below, the "report" of the Committees only has to be approved by a majority of the House and the Senate. If they approve it, then the bill goes to Obama to sign. So what will be critical is not what comes out of the Senate now, but what is in the report. Why wouldn't the members of the Senate committee agree to compromising by accepting the public option, knowing that a majority of their members would approve it and they would only need 51 votes in the end for it to pass?
http://thomas.loc.gov/home/lawsmade.bysec/final.action.html#conferenceConference Reports
When the conferees, by majority vote of each group, have reached complete agreement or find that they are able to agree with respect to some but not all separately numbered amendments, they make their recommendations in a report made in duplicate that must be signed by a majority of the conferees appointed by each body on each provision to which they are appointed. The minority of the managers have no authority to file a statement of minority views in connection with the conference report. The report is required to be printed in both Houses and must be accompanied by an explanatory statement prepared jointly by the conferees on the part of the House and the conferees on the part of the Senate. The statement must be sufficiently detailed and explicit to inform Congress of the effects of the report on the matters committed to conference.
In the Senate, the presentation of a conference report always is in order except when the Journal is being read, a point of order or motion to adjourn is pending, or while the Senate is voting or ascertaining the presence of a quorum. When the report is received, the question of proceeding to the consideration of the report, if raised, is immediately voted on without debate. The report is not subject to amendment in either body and must be accepted or rejected as an entirety. If the time for debate on the adoption of the report is limited, the time allotted must be equally divided between the majority and minority party. The Senate, acting first, prior to voting on agreeing to the report may by majority vote order it recommitted to the conferees. When the Senate agrees to the report, its managers are thereby discharged and it then delivers the original papers to the House with a message advising that body of its action.
A report that contains any recommendations which extend beyond the scope of differences between the two Houses is subject to a point of order in its entirety unless that point of order is waived in the House by unanimous consent, adoption of a rule reported from the Committee on Rules, or the suspension of the rules by a two-thirds vote. In the Senate, a report exceeding the scope of conference is likewise subject to a point of order.
It is not in order in the House to consider a conference report that differs in any way (other than clerical) from the text agreed to by the conferees, as recorded by their placement of their signatures (or not) on the sheets prepared to accompany the conference report and joint explanatory statement. Furthermore, as described earlier, it is not in order to consider a conference report unless the joint explanatory statement includes a list of congressional earmarks, limited tax benefits and limited tariff benefits in the conference report and joint explanatory statement, or a statement that the measure contains none of these items.
The presentation of a conference report in the House is in order at any time, except during a reading of the Journal or the conduct of a record vote, a vote by division, or a quorum call. The report is considered in the House and may not be sent to the Committee of the Whole on the suggestion that it contains matters ordinarily requiring consideration in that Committee. The report may not be received by the House if the required joint statement does not accompany it.
However, it is not in order to consider either: (1) a conference report; or (2) a motion to dispose of a Senate amendment reported in disagreement by a conference committee, until the third calendar day (excluding Saturdays, Sundays, and legal holidays unless the House is in session on those days) after the report and accompanying statement have been filed in the House and made available to the Members in the Congressional Record. However, these provisions do not apply during the last six days of the session. It is also not in order to consider a conference report or a motion to dispose of a Senate amendment reported in disagreement unless copies of the report and accompanying statement, together with the text of the amendment, have been available to Members for at least two hours before their consideration. By contrast, it is always in order to call up for consideration a report from the Committee on Rules on the same day reported that proposes only to waive the availability requirements for a conference report or a Senate amendment reported in disagreement. The time allotted for debate on a conference report or motion is one hour, equally divided between the majority party and the minority party. However, if the majority and minority floor managers both support the conference report or motion, one-third of the debate time must be allotted to a Member who is opposed, if claimed. If the House does not agree to a conference report that the Senate has already agreed to, the report may not be recommitted to conference. In that situation, the Senate conferees are discharged when the Senate agrees to the report. The House may then request a new conference with the Senate and conferees must be reappointed.
(more at link)