Is Health Care Failure The GOP’s Dream Scenario?

[babylonsister]

http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/health-care/is-health-care-failure-the-gops-dream-scenario/

Is Health Care Failure The GOP’s Dream Scenario?


For some time now I’ve been wondering which scenario Republicans view as preferable, in purely political terms:

1) The Dem health care bill fails, making Dems look ineffective and incapable of governing, and the GOP can claim credit for defeating it, a political boon to them (they say) because of its unpopularity; OR

2) The health care bill passes, a political negative (Republicans say) for Dems, because of its unpopularity, and the GOP gets credit for opposing it on a party line vote?

Republicans who are candid assure me that they think scenario number one may be better for them. One senior GOP strategist insisted to me that the party views both as good, but said: “We know what happened in ‘94 after they failed to pass it. Being perceived as a party incapable of governing might be worse.”

Another reason scenario number two might be better for Republicans, though they don’t say this: The public would never get a chance to change its mind about the bill and decide it isn’t so bad, after all. After all, controversial social programs that aroused fear and loathing as they were being debated have tended to grow on the American people over time.

So if the bill fails, Republicans get a three-fer: Dems look ineffective and incapable of governing after being handed a majority. Republicans claim credit not just for opposing it, but winning makes them look effective, too. And the public never gets a chance to warm to the proposal.

There may be plenty of political risks in passing a substandard bill, as opponents on the left argue. But the above nightmare scenario for Dems might be worth keeping in mind, too.

[DJ13]

1. If the reform passes at it is currently written the GOP also wins

As the people will see escalating premiums on mandated insurance they wont view the Democratic Party in a favorable light.

[babylonsister]

2. Funny, I hadn't realized the House Dems and the Senate had

already gone to conference. Can you share more of the final bill? Thanks.

[boston bean]

3. No their dream is giving health insurance corporations a mandate without a PO.

That's their dream and they are gonna live it in reality.

[kctim]

4. #2

It would piss off most independents and many moderate Dems and push them to vote for Republicans. More govt and higher taxes are not good for election time.

If the bill were to just fail, then it would probably be the moderate Dems against it who would benefit. Republicans really don't have much to do with its failure so they would have to play the hope game.

[babylonsister]

6. Rethugs don't have much to do with its failure? Bwhahaha!

Doncha think NOT voting to empower their constituents with health care reform is a massive failure? I do.

[kctim]

13. No, they don't

have much to do with its failure at all. The bill can pass or not pass with or without them. They cannot take much credit for it not passing and the ones who take credit for it passing would be committing political suicide.

Most Republicans do not want this type of reform, they want reform to work on cost, but don't want more govt in their lives. Why would they want their reps to vote for this reform bill?

Doncha think that if they cared, or even shared your opinion of what empowers them more, this wouldn't even be an issue? I do.

[babylonsister]

14. I'm really shocked you think the rethugs have nothing to do with this.

Have you been reading DU lately? At every turn they've tried to put stumbling blocks in the way of real reform without offering a thing of their own. They're the party of 'no' and have not supported one Democratic proposal since Obama was elected nor offered any cogent ones of their own.

But you keep supporting that agenda if it makes sense to you. I just wonder why you bother coming here if you think the stance the rethugs are taking (and I don't know what that is other than obstruction) is sensible. I'd gladly listen to what they had to say to fix this country if they actually had something to say, but they don't.

[kctim]

16. For christs sake

Nowhere did I say that I support what they are doing. What I said was that they cannot take credit for its failure because there isn't enough of them to block or pass anything. Republican voters will see a failure of the bill as a positive, but they won't see it as if their rep was instrumental in its failure.
Of course they are part of the reason, but when it comes time for votes (which is what your OP was about) this position is not as beneficial as saying "I fought against this intrusive govt plan and will continue to fight against it for you," while on the campaign trail.

[babylonsister]

17. "there isn't enough of them to block or pass anything". What

were they doing yesterday by reading Sanders' amendment? They were blocking.
Do you know who Dawn Johnsen is? They've been blocking her for months. You're wrong; they are perfectly able to stonewall and cause this to drag on and on, which is what they're doing. They're and have been hurting, not helping.

[kctim]

19. Ok, one more time

You're OP asks which would be better for them, bill failing or bill passing. #1 and #2.

With #1, people may not be as pissed off, so they do not have as much ammo to use during election time. Why? Because ALL they can say is that they voted against it, which is what they were expected to do. They cannot be looked upon as the reason for the bills failure when the moderate Dem factor played a much more important part.
With #2, people will be very pissed off and they have more ammo to use during election time. Why? Because they can say they fought against what has been forced upon them and will continue to fight for them and have it removed. It would energize more people to show up and vote for them.

That is nothing more than an answer to your question, not an endorsement of their actions or anything else.

[Laelth]

5. No. Health care passage is their dream scenario.

The American people will hate it (and rightly so), and they will blame the Democratic Party for it (again, rightly so).

:dem:

-Laelth

[babylonsister]

7. Ah! Didn't know you had a crystal ball there. Thanks for sharing. nt

[Laelth]

11. Smile.

Yup. Bought it at Wal-Mart.

:toast:

:dem:

-Laelth

[BurtWorm]

8. Unfortunately, Dems ARE ineffective and incapable of governing apparently.

:evilfrown:

[FLAprogressive]

12. +1

[TiberiusGracchus]

9. No the GOP dream bill would force ppl to buy private insurance, ban abortion and cost controls...

In other words THIS BILL ___IS___ the GOP's dream bill.

Think about it, if the GOP proposed an HCR bill how would it be substantially different from what we have here:

---A federal mandate for ALL people to buy insurance from private for-profit carriers.

---Restricts abortion funding via stupak language (AKA Ben Nelson).

---Impose ZERO federal mechanisms for Cost Controls via public option.

---Ban competition against big pharma by prohibitting the importation of foreign prescription drugs

In fact, the only thing the GOP would wanna add is a requirement for prayer before every operation.

Not only is this bill worse than NOTHING---THIS BILL IS A FUCKING GOP DREAM BILL.

[pampango]

15. "THIS BILL IS A FUCKING GOP DREAM BILL" that they will vote unanimously against.

Damn, those republicans are good at 3-D chess. They get exactly what they want (without the pre-operation prayer) AND they get to vote unanimously against it, so they can still complain about it.

Wish we could have gotten the GOP to pass some of our "dream bills" over the past 8 years, though I'm not sure we would have been cagey enough to vote unanimously against bills that we secretly loved. :)

[TiberiusGracchus]

18. "NOT CAGEY" is an understatement, we pulled up our knees and let them pass Medicare Part C and D...

which enshrined for-profit interests in government healthcare.

[Turbineguy]

10. The Republicans are out

to fuck America.

The Democrats seem to be OK with that.

That makes the Republicans more honest.