Earth on track for epic die-off, scientists say

[Liberal_in_LA]

Earth on track for epic die-off, scientists say
Peter Fimrite, Chronicle Staff Writer

Saturday, December 19, 2009

If the course of human history is any model, then the wheels are already turning on Earth's sixth mass extinction, thanks to habitat destruction, pollution and now global warming, a scientific analysis of millions of years of data revealed Friday.

The study of the fossil and archaeological record over the past 30 million years by UC Berkeley and Penn State University researchers shows that between 15 and 42 percent of the mammals in North America disappeared after humans arrived.

That means North American mammals are well on the way - perhaps as much as half way - to a level of extinction comparable to other epic die-offs, like the one that wiped out the dinosaurs.

Anthony Barnosky, a UC Berkeley professor of integrative biology and co-author of the study, said the most dramatic human-caused impacts on the ecosystem have occurred in the last century.

"We are seeing a lot of geographic range reductions that are of a greater magnitude than we would expect, and we are seeing loss of subspecies and even a few species," Barnosky said. "So it looks like we are going into another one of these extinction events."


Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/12/19/MNVS1B6E4C.DTL#ixzz0aANGJtMU

[Orrex]

1. This is actually a pretty great moment.

We've finally figured out the purpose of the human race.

[Lorien]

29. To destoy itself and most life on earth?

No, that's only the "purpose" of corporations and the knuckle draggers who support them.

[Orrex]

40. On a global, historical scale, can you name anything that humans en masse are better at doing?

[Jamastiene]

54. Nope

That's our thing.

[Electric Monk]

37. It sure is fascinating to watch.

I don't think I could have picked a more interesting time to live than right now even if I'd had a choice in the matter.

[ixion]

2. no species remains dominant forever

our time will pass, as it has for all dominant species.

The universe is a dynamic place, not a static one.

[yourout]

3. The difference is this one is our own fault.

[arcadian]

28. Maybe it isn't

Maybe we can't help ourselves. Sure looks that way.

[Thothmes]

39. 95 % of species that have lived on this planet are now extinct.

the vast majority died out before Homo sapiens ever showed up on the planet.

[bigwillq]

4. Damn that Democratic party

:rofl:

[Hannah Bell]

5. if there's an epic die-off, it won't be due to "nature," but to the actions of the ruling class.

[Spider Jerusalem]

7. The actions of humans in general.

Unfortunately, you can't blame this on politics. Humanity is, essentially, a virus with shoes.

[BrklynLiberal]

21. "A virus with shoes". Great line.

I remember hearing Kurt Vonnegut referring to the human race as a virus that Mother Earth was doing her best to shake off.


"The good Earth: we could have saved it, but we were too damn cheap and lazy."
Kurt Vonnegut. "Man Without a Country"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=2277663&mesg_id=2277663

[Hannah Bell]

23. no, not humans "in general". 80% of the world lives on less than $10 US. Humans "in general" don't

own shit, or decide shit, they exist in a world owned, built & run by the ruling class.

http://www.globalissues.org/article/26/poverty-facts-and-stats

and if you think humans = "virus," why do you still live?

[Spider Jerusalem]

27. 80% of the world may live on US$10 a day, but the other 20% aren't 'the ruling class'

they're just those whove been geographically and historically lucky enough to be born in societies with high levels of access to resources and fortunate technological development (Jared Diamond's 'Guns, Germs and Steel' is a reasonably decent examination of the forces behind cultural dominance, since you apparently haven't read it).

[Hannah Bell]

34. no, the other 1% are, more or less. So what? "Humanity in general" isn't

1%, or even 20%, of the world. Neither do the 19% consume on the scale of the 1%, nor is the cycle of simultaeous over & underconsumption their product.

I've read diamond, & much more besides. I don't hold diamond as my god, nor buy his analysis.

"Humanity in general" is neither a virus, nor trashing the world.

[greyl]

49. Cultural fallacy. Our culture does not equal humanity.

Our global consumerist culture is but one among thousands of other cultures and is not the result of genetic inevitability.

[Spider Jerusalem]

63. Other societies, given the technological and resource advantages enjoyed by Western societies...

would probably be no different.

[AlienGirl]

57. Humans, even the ruling-class ones, are a part of Nature, same as asteroids

Many other animals also change the environment to their or other species' detriment: look at the periodic overpopulation of lemmings, or the way so much of Africa was de-forested by grassland-preferring elephants.

Humans aren't that special, really.

Tucker

[lapfog_1]

6. Can't happen soon enough

As a species, we are too stupid to live.

[Warpy]

12. Have you ever had to go hungry?

It's not like going on a voluntary fast. It means not having enough food to live on over a prolonged period of time.

It hurts worse than you can ever imagine. This is what a dieoff means to the vast majority of people on this planet. You and I might be two of them.

However, yes, I've long since come to terms with the fact that we might be the rough draft for intelligent life on Earth. With HIV shortening our lifespan, we'll leave room for another species to arise.

My bet is on the cephalopods.

[lapfog_1]

14. I'll be gone (I'm pretty sure) long before that.

And, yes, I've been "hungry" before (4 days with no food but water and a few saltines), and not voluntary (snowed in a long ways from anywhere for a lot longer than ever anticipated. I was a kid and we weren't careful enough at first to ration things.

Pine needle soup is not very tasty. Nor is it nutritious.

Mom tried to make a game out of it to distract us kids.

My car has always had a case of Chef-BoyRDee and some soup every since. In the trunk, cycled through ever few months.

I now understand my parents generation (Great Depression) and their food hording ways.

[Warpy]

16. I'm talking months that stretch into years

of eating just enough to stop the pain in your body, of swallowing pebbles to make your stomach feel it's got something in it so it will stop hurting until it realizes the pebbles are indigestible.

That's true hunger and I'm terribly afraid we'll both live to see it.

[lapfog_1]

17. Possible.

My "expiration date" is within 20 years. That's about how long my heart will last. Maybe sooner, not longer. And I'm not a candidate for transplant. It's always possible that technology will catch up (it almost HAS) and I can afford it and it'll give me an additional 20. Possible. Not counting on it.

If the climate is as screwed as I believe it to be, 20 might be long enough to see the things you speak of. I hope not.

[AlienGirl]

60. Four days doesn't really count. By the second week of 460 cal/day, there's no feeling of "hunger"

It becomes a sort of generalized fatigue that fogs everything you do. You notice your body feels reluctant to do anything; your blood pressure's weird and standing up too long leaves you light-headed. By the third week, puberty is reversing: fat deposits associated with adulthood are gone, menses stop. You dream about eating. You remember food. You think about food. You can't remember what it was to be full.

Tucker

[Fumesucker]

25. There may not be enough time left for another intelligent species to arise..

We are well past the halfway point in the lifespan of the biosphere, the Earth will be destroyed in about five billion years by the Sun turning into a red giant and the biosphere will be extinguished well before that point.

[Warpy]

30. While fossil life appeared 4.5 billion years ago, it was quite simple

and took awhile to become well differentiated and adapt to land and air, as well as water. Life has been nearly eradicated several times in the past by vulcanism, climate disruption and bombardment and has risen again in astonishing complexity.

The first billion years or so were spent adapting to all areas of this planet, setting up the DNA necessary to adapt to more than one small environmental niche. Complexity seems to arise more quickly after each of the great mass extinctions that have occurred in the past.

The cephalopods have plenty of time.

[Fumesucker]

31. Life has been around a bit longer than 4500 years..

I think it's actually closer to 6000 ..

[Warpy]

33. I meant 4500 million, sorry

It's been a heckuva day.

[Fumesucker]

35. I know, just a gentle leg pulling..

And you're right it has been quite a day.

But the evolutionary path to intelligence is a long and many forked one that we know a vanishingly small amount about, I'm not sanguine about the chances of it happening again in the remaining lifespan of the biosphere.

[Lorien]

45. Plus, we'll consume all life on earth before we go down

that's what super predators do.

[Fumesucker]

47. We have made a mess and we're going to make a bigger mess before we're done..

But sterilizing the planet is a very difficult thing to do, even the Chicxulub impact didn't do it and that made an H bomb look like a wet firecracker.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater

Physicist and SF author Vernor Vinge thinks we're headed for a technological/sociological "singularity" wherein human life becomes something very different indeed, so different that like a physical singularity it is impossible to even guess what will come after, and the planet may revert back to a wild state.

http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vinge-sing.html

http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Singularity/

[AlienGirl]

62. Not possible; too many extremophiles.

[Lorien]

44. Why are you here? You don't care about human being or other living things

so why bother with a liberal political discussion board?

[branders seine]

8. starting with us.

[HipChick]

9. Astroid on track to hit..

in 2029...if work doesn't get started on this project soon, we'll go the way of the dinosaurs..

[SidDithers]

10. Asteroid on track to miss, in 2029...

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/13may_2004mn4.htm

Sid

[SallyMander]

11. Sad rec from an amphibian biologist

:(

[Karmadillo]

13. Just wait until the Democrats take back the White House and the Congress. Things will change.

nt

[elocs]

15. Humans are a virus:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn6WZh17BF4

[Gregorian]

19. And a sexually transmitted one.

You might like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-0vnRmej0Q

[sellitman]

18. It's Bill Clinton's fault!

:+

[BrklynLiberal]

20. The late "great" human race.

Evolution continues...and we are on the way to becoming extinct.

[Lorien]

32. Along with everything else of intrinsic worth

polar bears, starfish, quail, tree frogs, kit foxes, gorillas, songbirds, humpback whales, bats, oysters, bush babies, lizards, birds of paradise, falcons, lion fish and on and on and on...:cry:

[BrklynLiberal]

36. I would guess that the faster the human race disappears, the greater the chances

that at least some of those may survive.

How are you doing? How are all the furbabies doing?
Any recent pics.
Hope everyone is doing well.

[Lorien]

42. I think the human race will consume absolutely everything before it goes down

I can't see it happening any other way-though I'm sure the cockroaches will survive.


Furbabies are good. Pippin has a new best buddy-a tuxedo boy named Merrimack-I'll post some pics one of these days when I have a shred of energy. How are you and yours?

[BrklynLiberal]

46. Generally good.

6 cats nowadays. The last two are boys who hang out together and harass the girls.

They also like to hang with Boen, so all the guys hang out together. It is very funny.

It has been snowing and blowing here since about 1PM. I do not know if I will be able to get out my front door by tomorrow AM.

The lasts time it was like this in 2006, I had to wait until someone came to dig me out...

[Lorien]

65. Holy Moly! I hope you don't face anything like that again

stay warm!

[BlancheSplanchnik]

56. we're an exterminator species

I remember reading that in a Nat. Geographic article.

I'd say that's pretty correct.....

I don't want to be in a world without toads, and starfish and aye-ayes, and tarsiers and slow lorises, and foxes and wild turkeys and ......

:cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry: :cry:

it's not just the ruling class either, as I'm seeing around this thread. Humans are destructive in service to their own survival, period. It's just that industrialized nations have such a broad reach and effect.

[Gregorian]

22. So there's nothing left to do but DISCO!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUmJZ1kyYoU

[FarCenter]

24. Humans are exactly like cancer cells

They are undifferentiated.

They are able to spread throughout the organism (earth's ecosystem).

They form tumors which invade adjacent tissues and grow without bounds (cities with their transportation networks into their hinterlands).

They metastasize (cities create new cities through sending out expeditions and planting colonies -- the European "Age of Exploration" was reall the "Age of Metastasization").

The kill competing tissues by consuming all the resources.

They ultimately kill the host organism.

[Fumesucker]

26. It even has a name: The Holocene Extinction..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction

The Holocene extinction is the widespread, ongoing extinction of species during the present Holocene epoch. The large number of extinctions span numerous families of plants and animals including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles and arthropods; a sizeable fraction of these extinctions are occurring in the rainforests. Between 1500 and 2009 CE, 875 extinctions have been documented by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources.<1> However, since most extinctions go undocumented, scientists estimate that during the 20th century, between 20,000 and two million species actually became extinct, but the precise total cannot be determined more accurately within the limits of present knowledge. Up to 140,000 species per year (based on Species-area theory)<2> may be the present rate of extinction based upon upper bound estimating.

In broad usage, the Holocene extinction includes the notable disappearance of large mammals, known as megafauna, starting 10,000 years ago as humans developed and spread. Such disappearances have been considered as either a response to climate change, a result of the proliferation of modern humans, or both. These extinctions, occurring near the Pleistocene–Holocene boundary, are sometimes referred to as the Quaternary extinction event or Ice Age extinction. However the Holocene extinction may be regarded as continuing into the 21st century.

There is no general agreement on whether to consider more recent extinctions as a distinct event or merely part of a single escalating process. Only during these most recent parts of the extinction have plants also suffered large losses. Overall, the Holocene extinction is most significantly characterised by the presence of human-made driving factors.

[alfredo]

38. My arthritis is so bad, I can't kiss my ass goodbye.

[WildEyedLiberal]

41. All the celebratory comments in this thread are fairly disgusting

I find it endlessly ironic that those who claim the loudest to be anti-war, pro-peace, and pro-environment think it's just going to be a fucking riot if 90% of the life on this planet dies a slow, horrifying death. Do you idiots think "mass extinction" is like an atom bomb and everything dies in a painless instant?

[Lorien]

43. They think that it won't effect them, therefore they don't care

and most of them think that it's not already happening in their lifetime. Hell, I saw one idiot here post "Why should I care about polar bears; it's not like I ever plan on vacationing in Alaska!" Seriously. :eyes:

[arcadian]

48. You are beyond politics when you speculate about extinction scenarios.

[boppers]

50. All life dies.

Most of the species alive today didn't even exist 50 million years ago... it's not like life, and earth, has a stasis point.

[Hannah Bell]

51. I'm with you. & i feel lurking behind it (sometimes pretty obviously, in comments like

"humans = 'virus with tennis shoes'") is a pretty anti-democratic agenda.

I always wonder why people who feel this way don't off themselves; I guess it's just the "other" people they find so icky. They're hoping the "others" will die & leave the world to their obviously superior selves.

[cowcommander]

52. It's even worse than anti-democratic, it's anti-HUMAN

These comments are immature and disgusting. GROW UP!

[Hannah Bell]

53. they're apparently fine with *some* humans -- those like themselves.

otherwise they'd have killed themselves, since they'd consider themselves part of the virus/cancer.

but they--shop at whole foods. or whatever.

[Electric Monk]

55. or maybe they're just failures at that offing themselves thing

Excuse me while I go drink just enough bleach to make me ill :)

[MH1]

58. Gallows humor

I think most is not "celebratory" at all ... just resigned and feeling powerless.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

59. Should I pay off my credit cards or not? nt

[Karenina]

64. First, CUT THEM UP!!!

:evilgrin:

[earth mom]

61. Meanwhile any type of progress at Copenhagen was flushed down the toilet.

:argh:

:cry:

[Union Yes]

66. Mother Nature always seems to have a system for coughing up the phlegm. knr nt

doh too late to rec. I tried.