Economy Poised for Surge as Most Accurate Economist Sees U.S.

[jpak]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aLD8QCLF917s&pos=11

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy next year will turn in its best performance since 2004 as spending perks up and companies increase investment and hiring, says Dean Maki, the most-accurate forecaster in a Bloomberg News survey.

The world’s largest economy will expand 3.5 percent in 2010, according to Maki, the chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. The rebound in stocks and rising incomes will prompt Americans to do what they do best --consume, said Maki, a former economist at the Federal Reserve. Faced with dwindling inventories and growing demand, companies will soon become confident the expansion will be sustained, he said.

Household spending “will pick up steam as we move into the second half of 2010,” said Maki, 44, who topped all 60 forecasters in the Bloomberg News ranking of gross domestic product projections for the first three quarters of 2009. “The overall picture for 2010 will be an economy growing rapidly enough to bring down the unemployment rate” to an average of 9.6 percent.

Maki, who specialized in researching household finances at the Fed from 1995 to 2000, said the economic recovery this time will be similar to past rebounds. Consumer purchases improved after last year’s 61 percent plunge in gasoline prices and will keep growing in 2010, reflecting the surge in stocks. Faster growth will push Treasury yields higher and help the dollar strengthen as the Fed raises interest rates, he predicts.

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[Mari333]

1. and jobs will be??

man, this guy needs to visit my state of Michigan.

[rfranklin]

2. Yep, you cannot build an entire economy on burger and fry jobs...

It's as if they're just cutting loose the millions of unemployed and underemployed and imagining an economy without them.

[Mari333]

4. this guy is from Barclays

one of those well heeled fellows with an armani suit and gold cufflinks. hasnt got a clue .
sounds like he is hoping for the old Reagan Trickle Down

[jpak]

13. You're right - there can only be (((((DOOOOOOM))))))

and only (((((((DOOOOM)))))))

and if the economic indicators clearly indicate otherwise - they were cooked by the Evil Rhamsputin himself for the benefit of the Trickle Downers!!!11

:D

[Donnachaidh]

20. so where was this guy when the banks and the other elites were causing the meltdown?

Was he sounding a warning then?

This is PR pure and simple. And those MILLIONS who are still out of work have the right to think these pieces are just so much fluff to feed the masses. THEY know what's going on.

[unblock]

22. when economists say "the economy" will rebound, they are NOT talking about jobs

they're talking about gdp and national averages and relative improvement over the previous year.

the economy as a whole can easily be "growing" while unemployment remains at a high but constant level. all it means is that on average, those who DO have jobs are spending more and/or businesses are selling more -- much of it obviously to people other than those out of work.

in short, many of the actual humans in places like michigan will not be participating in the "recovery" any time soon.

[OHdem10]

3. Good for the economy--but 3.5% is not a great job creator.

This follows earlier projections. Economy improves but
jobs will take a long long time.

[DailyGrind51]

5. To get the jobs back, repeal NAFTA and GAT and impose tarriffs on imported goods!

[truebrit71]

7. Yeah that's a great idea..make shit even MORE expensive...

:eyes:

[Romulox]

9. If cheap Chinese crap was the solution, there wouldn't be a problem.

:hi:

[L0oniX]

16. +1

[ixion]

6. based on what?

the consumer is tapped out, maxed out, and in many cases, out of work. Their credit cards have been rendered useless by banks, or their credit lines have been slashed.

So our (previously) 70% consumer-driven economy is going to be driven by what?

[jpak]

10. Based on economic demand as the result of the Stimulus Package and rising consumer confidence

n/t

[ixion]

12. LOL

:rofl:

Okay, hope that works out for you. I don't see it. Confidence is irrelevant when you have no money, credit or job.

[tridim]

18. I have no money, credit or a job..

and I'm more confident than I've been in at least 15 years.

Your pessimism and FUD is only YOURS, not everyone elses, thank gawd.

[jpak]

19. LOL! It WILL work - no luck needed

but that won't stop Teh Malcontents from screeching about good economic data...

:rofl:

[L0oniX]

17. CEO pay is going up.

[Romulox]

8. Unrec for Bloombergian happy talk. nt

[jpak]

14. Sorry if Economy Recovery is interfering with Teh DOOM

:D

[earthside]

11. Based on what?

What manufacturing boom is going to be the basis for this 'surge' in growth? New jobs and new personal income is going to be produced by what economic activity?

Dean Maki thinks this is all about the stock market and increased consumption ... so, we're all going to be buying more Chinese-made crap with the money from our General Motors dividends?

If there is a bump-up in spending it is because of the trillions and trillions of dollars pumped into the economy by the federal government and Federal Reserve ... all funded through debt.

These kinds of predictions just make you realize that "the chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York" and the "former economist at the Federal Reserve" certainly doesn't live in the same world as the rest of us.

[jpak]

15. Manufacturing, Job Market Show Progress

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126166183129404259.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

WASHINGTON -- The latest economic data offer more evidence that strength is returning to the U.S. manufacturing sector and that the labor market is improving.

Orders for durable goods, those intended to last more than three years, were up 2.9% in November, excluding the volatile commercial-aircraft and defense sectors. Orders for all durable goods were up 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted $166.87 billion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

A separate Labor Department report showed the number of people filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell in the week ended Dec. 19 to its lowest level since Sept. 6, 2008 -- just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The report showed the number of workers collecting unemployment benefits for more than a week also dropped.

Economic-forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, among the more optimistic forecasters, said the strength of Thursday's reports has boosted its estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth to 4.8%. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect fourth-quarter growth at around 4% or better. But they cautioned, "The composition of this growth is not strong. Almost half of it comes from a sharp slowing in the rate at which inventories are being drawn down."

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Sorry - no Doom for you

[earthside]

23. Ha! Ha!

Take a look at the durable goods number:

"Excluding the volatile transportation sector, new orders increased 2.0 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased slightly."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jMQq9_TQgvgJdeGBQqv69aJshXjg

Plenty of potential doom still on the horizon.

Sorry to say.

[CoffeeCat]

21. Did this "most accurate" economist predict this deep recession?

If this dude is so prescient, did he accurately predict the dire situation in which
we currently find ourselves?

I've never heard of him. I certainly never read anything that he predicted beforehand,
that transpired.

I know that Roubini and Peter Schiff called our current situation. Where was this guy
if he's supposedly some kind of economic Nostradamus?

This is Wall Street, via Bloomberg news, playing with us. "Ladies and gentleman....I
introduce to you...the smartest economist in the wooooorld...and he predicts happy
days and rainbows!! Spend!! Spend!! It's ok to stop saving!"

I also might add that Michael Bloomberg spent his Saturday, on Meet The Press, defending
Wall Street. He said that he's tired of America villanizing wonderful Wall Street and
he's dismayed with all of the bad press that Wall Street is getting--when they do so
many good things. I kid you not.

I think we all know what's going on here. Wall Street needs us...to spend. They're
trying to stimulate spending through baseless stories, in an effort to boost confidence.

Jobs are not supposed to return, and 2010 is supposed to be the WORST for housing foreclosures.
The bulk of Q3 GDP growth was cash for clunkers. The tax cuts for new homeowners were propping
up home sales. CFC and those home tax cuts are now gone.

I don't see this growth that he's predicting. But what do I know...he's the smartest economist
in the wooooooorld! :eyes: