Yemen---food for thought.

[frustrated_lefty]

Given Yemen's recently awarded position as a thriving hotbed of international terrorism and home of the newly patented "butt-bomb" strategy, it's reasonable to question American motive for becoming involved in the region. The past decade, if nothing else, has provided us with a healthy dose of skepticism when it comes to our leaders claims of the need for pre-emption.

I'm approaching this with an open mind, willing to consider any of a number of possible explanations.

Although Yemen is rich in minerals, it's oil producing capacity in negligible (http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2009/me_oil0969_12_16.asp). Its capacity to export oil, according to the link, is predicted to cease by 2020.

Its strategic value by virtue of geography is virtually non-existent since the end of the cold war.

It's total population is estimated at ~18 million, with only 6 population centers having populations greater than 100,000. Infrastructure within the state is limited, and its population exists largely as a tribal society.

Why be concerned with such a rinky-dink country, then?

Regional stability is an issue, which is also of interest to our ally and Yemen's immediate neighbor, Saudi Arabia. Although I fail to see how this would be politically expedient to justify American intervention within the region, enough back room deals are reached between the West and Saudi Arabia to flag this notion as a possible contributing factor.

There is also the possibility that claims of Al Qaeda activity in the region are in fact true. Two factors which might influence the rise of Al Qaeda in Yemen are: 1) the elimination of Al Qaeda operatives in Saudi Arabia, driving its members into neighboring Yemen; and, 2) the 94% reduction in US financial support to Yemen since the decline of the Cold War. In essence, because Yemen lost its strategic value, it also lost financial support, arguably creating fertile grounds for Anti-American sentiment and the recruitment of mujhadeen.

I dunno, but claims of Al Qaeda in Yemen seem plausible, although that would also appear to be a consequence of short-sighted American policy within the gulf region.

An interesting background and analysis of Yemen dated from 1996 can be found at http://permanent.access.gpo.gov/lps12810/00187.pdf It's an analysis written by a colonel at the Strategic Studies Institute. Due to the date of publication, presumably it precedes any efforts to gin up justification for current activities in the area.

[Way2go]

1. Thanks, Colonel. I'll take mine straight, if you don't mind.

Did you just happen to run across that analysis while reading a news article?

[hunter]

2. We're looking for a nation to beat up that won't kick us in the 'nads...

Doesn't seem like any nation is small enough or disorganized enough to conquer anymore, does it?

The United States should probably think about creating imaginary nations with imaginary terrorists so that we can conquer them and give Fox News some victories to trumpet.

[Douglas Carpenter]

3. but most of the fighting in Yemen concerns the Houthi rebels - not Al Qaeda

The Houthi are members of a breakaway sect from Shiite Islam called Zaydism who make up 40% to 45% of the Yemeni population The Saudis and some others are accusing the Houthi rebels of being supported by Iran. Although no hard evidence has yet been made public to support that accusation. Although, the Iranian state media are certainly sympathetic to the Houthi.

So what the hell is really going on? It would be extremely unlikely that the Houthi are now allied with Al Qaeda who are militantly Sunni and would consider Zaidis to be nonbelievers on par with Sufis or Alawis.

So whatever is really going, we keep hearing the word Al Qaeda being tossed around in regards to Yemen. But almost all the recent actual fighting concerns a groups that may or may not be actively supported by Iran, but almost certainly have nothing to do with Al Qaeda.

Since there is no independent media anywhere near the actual fighting and no independent international observers anywhere near the fighting - at least as far as anyone knows - the whole things sounds most confusing.

here is one interesting article from Foreign Affairs:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65730/joost-r-hiltermann/disorder-on-the-border

[Way2go]

4. May not be al aqaeda, but surely it can be one of the OBLadins

That's why the U.S. MUST do something. Over here AND over there. Neither place will resist (at least not according to MSM).

[Douglas Carpenter]

5. it would be extremely unlikely that bin Laden would have anything to do with

the Houthi rebellion. It is quite plausible that Al Qaeda does have some presence in Yemen. But that is not the issue of the most recent outbreak of major hostilities.

The Saudi government may very well have their own reasons for wanting to see the Houthi rebellion defeated. Most of the southwestern region of Saudi Arabia was once considered part of Yemen. However, Saudi Arabia with its oil wealth has been able to create a fair amount of development creating a living standard far higher than anything imaginable in remote, impoverished northern Yemen, thus neutralizing over the years most serious opposition to Saudi rule. Still large numbers of ethnic Yemenis do live in that area. And it is fair to guess that the Saudis do not want a major rebellion right on their border with a great deal of cross border traffic. Tribal relationships and a lack of border controls means an essentially open border. In fact the Saudis government alleges that Houthi rebel forces have crossed the border and have even at one point captured a few Saudi villages. Again, without any independent observers or media in that area, it is hard to say what is actually happening. But it would reasonably fair to guess that neither bin Laden or Al Qaeda have anything to do with the major issue of concern. Some are suggesting that we are witnessing a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. But again there is not enough independent information to judge if that is a fair analysis or not.

[OregonBlue]

6. Quite the little war monger aren't you. Whay are you at DU?

[frustrated_lefty]

8. Thanks for the link...

It gives the impression of a vastly complicated political terrain where there are no easy answers. Looking at Yemen's instability and its geographical context, it almost seems as if its sole purpose is to serve as a buffer zone between surrounding nations.

What a mess.

[Democrats_win]

7. During the 70s we were very concerned about Yemen and the communists.

In fact South Yemen was a communist state before it joined with North Yemen in 1990 to become the Republic of Yemen:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Yemen
----
Luckily for the military industrial complex, we still have things to worry about over there that keeps us distracted from our true enemies on Fraud Street. You know, the ones who stole your pension.