Capitalism catches a serious disease about every 70 years...

[kentuck]

Unlike wars, which can be fought about every 20-year generation, great economic collapses take a normal lifespan to repeat themselves. Capitalism must always be on guard to fight the demons of greed, lest they make the same mistakes once again. And again...And again...

It happened in the 1930's - seventy years ago. It was a time of depression, poverty, and joblessness. And it happened 70 years before that, when Abraham Lincoln was elected President and we had the Great Civil War, in which the economy played more than just a small part.

Then seventy years after the Great Depression, we got another low-taxing and regulation-hating Republican elected to office by the name of George W Bush. What we are experiencing now is just another manifestation of what we experienced in the Great Civil War and the Great Depression. It is the natural 70-year cycle of economic busts and depressions. This is what is happening to our country.

The good news is that we will not experience another one of these economic "busts" until 2070. Unfortunately, most of us will not be around for the next one.

This is just a theory I have.

[Warpy]

1. Actually, the cyclical nature of capitalism has long been known

but pegged more to 50 year intervals than 70 year intervals.

We delayed this one by 20 years through the protections afforded by the New Deal. When those were dismantled, the clock restarted. This one is also quite a bit shallower than the usual capitalist crash, probably because they didn't get to everything.

Maybe when Congress becomes adequately afraid of the citizenry, we'll get stronger protections that will last a bit longer.

Deregulated capitalism always marches inexorably to monopoly and wealth concentration and then it collapses because it depends on the people it has robbed to buy its products.

[kentuck]

2. Do you believe we are now recovering from this one?

I think that might be a very optimistic assumption? States are going broke. Unemployment cannot be paid out much longer to the long-employed. You cannot force employers to hire more people. Well, you could, I suppose, but it would take changing the tax laws to make it an incentive to hire and a disincentive to not hire. But employers will not hire more labor than they need or can use at the present time. I hope you are right. I'm just not sure we are pulling out of this - I fear this is only the beginning...

[Warpy]

10. No, not really

although conditions might get a little better for some time. We won't recover until and unless we institute regulations to discourage thieves, end wealth concentration by aggressive taxation at the top, support wages at the bottom, rebuild our infrastructure and industry, and smash the monopolies.

What we'll get instead of true recovery is an improvement in numbers.

[AllentownJake]

13. Candidate Obama

talked about GDP not being the end all and be all. We'll see if President Obama has changed his mind.

[RoyGBiv]

3. What is your point about the Civil War?

The economic shocks and recoveries of the 19th century were far more common and more devastating than they were in the 20th century. We've just got a higher bar with our presumed normal standard of living now, plus video.

The economy certainly played a part in the Civil War but not, I fear, in the manner you are suggesting.

OnEdit: verb tense ... I've simply got to get it in my head I live in the 21st century now.

[yourout]

4. Its called Republicanitis.

This case was almost fatal.

[scheming daemons]

5. My theory is that this country gets the EXACT right leader every 70 years...

1788... George Washington

(then 72 years later...)

1860... Abraham Lincoln

(then 72 years later...)

1932... Franklin Roosevelt

(then 76 years later...)

2008... Barack Obama


At each "crisis point" in this nation's history... happening roughly every 70 years... we somehow, despite ourselves, managed to elect the exact right person at the exact right time.

The first three are obvious and accepted by most historians as the key leader of their times.

The last one will be in 50 years.

[notesdev]

6. Go through it once

and people never forget. Hence, the 70 years it takes that generation to die off, leaving no one left to sound the alarm on the next go-around.

[AllentownJake]

9. Actually this should have happened in the 1980s

We borrowed our way out of it...which appears to be the strategy again.

[kentuck]

15. I agree.

That explains the 70-year cycle. And the capitalists are successful every time in destroying our economy and in enriching themselves.

[AllentownJake]

7. I predict we get another "bust" within 10 years

Because no one is doing anything to fix things from this bust.

Possibly even in 2010...might forestall it at the most to 2013 depends when our line of credit gets cut.

There were 3 depressions after Abe's Presidency.

FDR fixed things, and for 70 years greedy people did everything they could to unfix it.

[AllentownJake]

8. History of Economic crisis pre-New Deal

http://www.thehistorybox.com/ny_city/panics/panics_article1a.htm

These were happening on about a 15-20 year cycle prior to FDR. Not on a 70 year cycle.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. And A Few Bullets Were Dodged

So, in fact the cycle would have been even shorter than 15 to 20 years. At least three bullets were dodged by events extrinsic to this country that reset some priorities and governmental attention.

It could have been about every 10 to 12 years if not for a little luck.
GAC

[AllentownJake]

12. The entire 19th century was banking issues

Lincoln made things better by creating the green back and the depressions became less extreme, than the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 in reaction to other crisis.

When you have someone like Paul Volcker at the FED things are ok. When you get a Greenspan or Bernake who bend to political pressure, you get kick the can mentality.

Greenspan caused a shit load of problems, which Bernake is now trying to fix, and the solutions Bernake is using due to political pressure, are going to cause more problems.

[ProfessorGAC]

14. Greenspan Was A Pathogen

He did more damage than he could have possibly done if he NEVER showed up for work.
GAC

[madokie]

18. I was shaking my head the whole time greenspan was

fucking us over and I don't mean shaking my head up and down either. Couldn't believe the shit that he was doing as to me I seen it as Partisan and thats with a capital P too. I can smell a snake long before I see him too and I smelled a snake with greenspan and now it's the same with bernake

[madokie]

16. Let me see now

61 damn near 62 now, add 70 more to that and I should be good to go. But in all seriousness I think you may be correct.

[kentuck]

17. We have "minor" recessions in between the huge collapses...

But it appears it takes about that long, a lifetime, for the capitalists to complete their gamble. They did it it in the 20's and they did it in the late '90's and 2000's. They forgot everything we had learned from history. No, we don't need the Glass-Steagal Act anymore, for example.

[laughingliberal]

19. The capitalists didn't forget anything

These calamities benefit them. They just lie in wait until a generation that lived through the last one has, mostly, passed on and they start tearing down the protections again so they can grab all our money they are denied while the protections are in place. They really do resent every dime an average person is able to hold on to and believe they are entitled to it.

[madokie]

21. Theres no doubt in my mind about that

Not only do we go through life worrying about how to keep food on the family we also have to be on the guard for the slackers who are constantly trying to separate us from our honest gains. I feel no mercy for the thief who does it to us out in the open and with impunity cause they have the law saying they can, yet we can do nothing about it. The law I might add that they paid for with money they steal from us. Any of the insurance's as we have them today is thievery and nothing else.

[madokie]

20. Yep I agree

It always comes down to greed, the love of money. I can say I am happy that I was raised poor and never caught that love of money so many have. I'll go to my death knowing full well I never took advantage of someone, no matter how smart or dumb they, or I, thought they were. It just wasn't in my genes I guess.