Replicating the Vietnam finale!The Nation
By Khalid Iqbal | Published: January 4, 2010
A widely known reality that it is the Taliban (read Neo-Viet Cong) who rule Afghanistan outside the Presidential Palace and self-preserving fortified abodes of the occupation forces, has now been reconfirmed via a NATO source which has stated, "Taliban have their shadow governors in all but one province of Afghanistan." Yet, President Barack Obama laboured hard, at West Point, only a month ago that "Afghanistan is not another Vietnam." In the same vein, the other high marks of his speech were commitment for a speedy and effective employment of 'Surge II' and also the announcement about the withdrawal timeline.
Right at the outset, Surge II seems to be losing steam in terms of intensity and focus. Indications are that the envisaged timeframe for the complete induction of 30,000-strong contingent is expected to drag on. And the last contingent would not be fielded before November, against the initially envisaged timeline of August. Time lag reinforces the perception that the American war potential is overstretched and is unable to take further load without resorting to draft. Another option is to recycle into Afghanistan the troops who would be withdrawn from Iraq. The later line of action appears to be the likely option. It is feared that the troops shortfall for Surge II may be made up by inducting additional air effort, especially the unmanned component; the notorious drones.
As and when Surge II is operationalised, it would double the presence of occupation boots. Almost an equal number of followers and contractors could have come as a bonus. Moreover, direct war spending has crossed the one trillion mark, the US economy is in a nosedive and additional appropriations for war effort may no longer be tenable without having a telling effect on the social sector budgeting.
Opacity continues pertaining timeframe of various activities in terms of capacity and capability enhancement programmes. A major shock generator is the news that President Obama has not agreed to double the strength of the Afghan National Army as recommended by General Stanley McChrystal. This raises serious doubts about the US commitment towards post-withdrawal stability of Afghanistan.
~snip~
Due to foot-dragging by Pentagon, now the induction of Surge I&II largely resembles the patterns followed by President Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam and by President Gorbachev in Afghanistan, towards the end of their occupation. Thus, the end result of Obama's surges is not expected to be far different.
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