Earth 'to be wiped out' by supernova explosion

[FarCenter]

The star, called T Pyxidis, is set to self-destruct in an explosion called a supernova with the force of 20 billion billion billion megatons of TNT.

Although the star is thought to be around 3,260 light-years away – a fairly short distance in galactic terms – the blast from the thermonuclear explosion could strip away the Earth's ozone layer, the scientists said.

Dying stars captured with space imaging breakthroughAstronomers from Villanova University, Philadelphia, in the US, said the International Ultraviolet Explorer satellite has shown them that T Pyxidis is really two stars, one called a white dwarf that is sucking in gas and steadily growing. When it reaches a critical mass it will blow itself to pieces.

It will become as bright as all the other stars in the galaxy put together, they said. The Hubble space telescope has photographed the star preparing for its big bang with a series of smaller blasts or "burps", called novas.

These explosions came regularly about every 20 years from 1890 – but stopped after 1967.

So the next blast is nearly 20 years overdue, said scientists Edward M Sion, Patrick Godon and Timothy McClain at the American Astronomical Society in Washington.

<SNIP>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/6940111/Earth-to-be-wiped-out-by-supernova-explosion.html

[spanone]

1. bummer

[Libertas1776]

2. "The star may certainly became a supernova

soon – but soon could still be a long way off so don't have nightmares."

How soon is soon? Thanks for being specific poindexter :eyes:

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. 10 million years or so

It sounds scary stuff. And the astronomers' news release suggest it will happen "soon". But I contacted the lead researcher, Dr Ed Sion, and he told me: "At the accretion rate we derived, the white dwarf in T Pyxidis will reach the Chandrasekhar Limit in ten million years. I hope this alleviates any worry by readers."

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=supernova-star-too-close-for-comfor-2010-01

According to Edward Sion, Professor of Astronomy and Physics at Villanova University, T Pyxidis may be in fact a "ticking time bomb," and potential threat to the Earth if it were to go supernova, which it may do sometime in the future, though very, very far in the future on our timescale: by Scion's calculations, at least 10 million years.

http://www.universetoday.com/2010/01/04/could-a-faraway-supernova-threaten-earth/

[MoonRiver]

15. No problem.

Humans will have killed off ourselves and all other living earth creatures long before then.

[highplainsdem]

16. I'll put "worry about supernova" on my To Do list for 9.9 million years from now.

[Libertas1776]

20. whew...

I'm pretty sure I'll be worm chow by then. ;-)

[Jeff In Milwaukee]

21. Fuck. I had already make plans for that millenium....

Now I have to reschedule.

[Warpy]

19. "Soon" in astronomical terms could mean we'd already be extinct

from our own sheer stupidity. I know the Telegraph likes to scare the hell out of conservatives in the UK, but the truth is a little less dramatic.

From Wiki: "Because of its relatively close distance, a T Pyxidis supernova could have a significant impact on Earth. The received gamma radiation would equal the total (all spectra) radiation of approximately 1000 solar flares, and would severely damage the ozone layer. The X-radiation that reaches Earth, however, would be less than the X-radiation of a single average solar flare"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T_Pyxidis

So break out the sunscreen and sunglasses and be prepared to donate beaucoup bucks to the world's people in places where they can't afford such amenities, at least if you want to eat.

[roguevalley]

59. black hole anyone? I personally am not afraid of death. I don't mind

going to where all my loved ones are but this better not happen until my mortgage is paid off or I'm going to be pissed.

[ClusterFreak]

3. So...

...smoke 'em if ya got 'em?:smoke:

[ixion]

9. cheers

:toast: :smoke: :party: :woohoo:

Might as well enjoy it. :)

[Jamastiene]

32. w00t!

:woohoo: :smoke:

[Posteritatis]

4. That's a nicely alarmist headline

Gives the misanthropes something to misanthropize about, I guess.

(Am I the only one who can't stand awkward constructions like "billion billion billion megatons"?)

[Goldstein1984]

11. The media love the alarmist stuff

We have the choice of responding with fear of wonder.

Some people have trouble with scientific notation and wouldn't understand 10^27 megatons. Considering that Americans are on average what Richard Dawkins called "a nation of scientific hillbillies and backwoodsmen," the most appropriate construct would probably be "a whole bunch of megatons."

[Jamastiene]

33. Never misunderestimate the power of

misanthropizing. :P

[Goldstein1984]

5. The paradox of being the center and pinnacle of Creation

and yet to be just a mote of fragile dust in the Universe.

The weirdest part? The star going supernova is about 3260 light years away, it may have already goon supernova somewhere around 1259 BCE, and we just haven't received the bad news yet.

The Universe is an amazing and scary place. We should be humbled by it.

[Zywiec]

14. +1 n/t

[RaleighNCDUer]

26. Of course, it would have to have done so

to stay on the 12/21/12 time schedule.

[Goldstein1984]

30. The universe probably has its own schedule

we should just enjoy the ride.

[Baclava]

7. "Overdue" just like Yellowstone - give or take a couple hundred thousand years

Astronomers want the sexy disaster headlines now too, I guess.

[Deep13]

10. Probably science writers do. nt

[Deep13]

8. Dammit, that's a southern hemisphere constellation.

Given how short supernovae are, I'll miss it for sure! :(

[Fumesucker]

12. Betelgeuse is also an incipient supernova

And is only 640 light years away..

It's already one of the brightest stars in the sky and if it goes supernova it will be brighter than the full moon.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betelgeuse

[krispos42]

18. And it will likely happen a lot sooner than the white dwarf explosing n/t

[Xithras]

27. Yep. Last I saw they were now saying that Betelgeuse may blow in the next few hundred years.

It's apparently begun its final collapse, and has shrunk by about 15% since the early 1990's. There's a small chance that some of the younger people alive today may see it, but it's almost a certainty that it will go off at some point in the next half dozen generations. Once a star starts to collapse, the ride is pretty much over.

Luckily the axis aren't pointed at us, so it should be little more than a fascinating light show.

[calico1]

13. Damn...

I hope I can enjoy at least a few years of retirement before that happens.

[HopeHoops]

17. Shouldn't TSA be handling this? Is that star wearing underwear?

It should at least be on the "No Supernova List".

[Better Today]

22. They've only just figured out it is 2 instead of one, but somehow they

think they have accurate data back to the 1890's regarding their patterns of explosion? Yeah, right.

[muriel_volestrangler]

25. Yeah, right

T Pyxidis is one of the few known recurrent nova and presently holds the record for the greatest number of observed outbursts with five recorded to date. The first outburst was detected on May 1902, "discovered" some time later on Harvard photographic plates. The star reached a peak brightness of 7.3 on May 2 and by January of the next year, it had returned to its normal 14th magnitude state. The discovery of the nova stimulated a search of the Harvard plate collection, and as a result, a previous maximum was discovered for T Pyx in the spring of 1890. The next outburst occurred in 1920 followed by another explosion in 1944.

The fifth outburst of T Pyx started in 1966 and was discovered by Albert Jones, an AAVSO member and well-known variable star and comet observer of Nelson, New Zealand. Jones had been checking the star field of T Pyx frequently for 12 years, each time finding the star invisible at fainter than visual magnitude 13.5. This was the case on November 12, 1966. But when he next looked, on December 7th, he saw the variable for the first time, at magnitude 12.9, and he immediately notified other observers. Two nights later T Pyx was almost four magnitudes brighter. For the next month, the nova brightened slowly, oscillating sometimes with a period of mere hours, until it attained a maximum magnitude of 6.3 on January 11, 1967. The nova started to fade with marked oscillations and declined in brightness at the rate of .03 magnitudes per day for the first 100 days. The rate then increased to .1 magnitude per day for about 20 days and was followed by a more gradual decline to its minimum state around magnitude 15. That was the last we have seen of T Pyx in outburst, and according to its period interval, it is about sixteen years overdue for another one!

http://www.aavso.org/vstar/vsots/0402.shtml

[Posteritatis]

28. Because they couldn't detect brightness back then, right?

God, I love watching laymen try to refute things sometimes.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

38. LOL

[Better Today]

42. I'm not trying to refute anything. Just keep it all in perspective.

Apparently until recently it was thought to be one star, hence one star exploded every 20 years or so. Now we know it's 2 stars, sounds like they are interacting with each other. Can we be absolutely sure that those past explosions were one of the two, both?, or perhaps there was a third interacting or some other data which we were unable to "see" back then because all we could see was an explosion, not per se the exact source. If this bit of data, it's 2 stars not 1, was incorrect, then other missed data can be assumed.

I've lived long enough to see many many times when assumptions of the past have been dramatically altered based on evidence found with new and better technology. Just seems a tad too early to just assume that all previous data was complete enough to say it is due for an explosion, perhaps what was causing the explosion has expired, conditions have changed, . . . .

[Soylent Brice]

23. neato. n/t

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

24. No doubt some politician will demand a pre-emptive invasion.

[sui generis]

29. unfortunately

we won't know it actually hit us until we're dead. Kinda hard to radio ahead in that situation.

I'm actually more worried that I forgot to put the milk back this morning before I left the house.

[sarge43]

31. 3K light years away?

Right. I'm definitely staying awake worrying about that one.

[rd_kent]

34. so, if it explodes today, we have 3260 years until it gets us? I'm ok with that.

[Ratty]

41. I don't think so

Observations of the star are already 3260 years old. I assume if they say "it's about to blow" that's based on current observations (i.e. it may have already done so we just don't know it yet).

Edit to add: The danger from a "nearby" supernova travels a bit slower than light. So once we observe the explosion we'll have a couple of years at least to take cover.

[Statistical]

52. nope.

It may have ALREADY exploded, yesterday, a hundred years ago 2000 years ago or even 3259 year and 300 days ago.

The light from the explosion will be traveling at "the speed of light".


The light from stars we see in the sky are light that originated years ago equal to its distance in light years.

Say a star "burns out" and we see it today. Does that mean the star burned out today? No. How long ago depends on how far away the star is. If it was 100 light years away then the star burned out a hundred years ago. We just kept seeing "old light" until all the light "in transit" is gone.

[MilesColtrane]

57. We better party like it's 5270!

[Jamastiene]

35. OH NOES1!!!! WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE...

sometime. :P

[sarge43]

36. OK, someone has to say it so we can get on with what is left of our lives.

IT'S ALL OBAMA'S FAULT!

[cadmium]

37. earth will be wiped out because

we called and nobody answered the phone.

[gauguin57]

39. I just hope we get a couple of days of warning so I can watch the end of the world w/family.

I'll start planning the End of Days menu now. And it will include all the junky snack foods I no longer allow myself to eat for weight-loss-resolution purposes.

My family could play a nice game of Taboo or Scattergories, and drink mimosas and eat snacks and feel our faces melting off together. Mom and Dad would have wanted it that way.

[rd_kent]

40. you have about a 3000 year warning.

[Statistical]

50. How?

Any warning "signs" (other stars being moved, planets being destroyed, t-pax stop shining will be traveling at speed of light.

[foxfeet]

43. Guess I'd better bring in the laundry from the clothesline.

[laughingliberal]

45. Really cute!

:rofl:

[Tailormyst]

44. I see a new plot for a Saturday night Scifi channel movie !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[laughingliberal]

46. As silly as this sounds I try not to watch discovery much when I'm alone

A few years back I was watching late one night after husband was asleep. They were talking about our sun going supernova in about 5 billion years. Now, I knew that couldn't possibly affect me but I felt very sad for several hours after hearing it and had trouble sleeping. Lol!

[CrownPrinceBandar]

47. Thats only if a gamma ray burst doesn't take us out in the meantime........

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/gammaray_bursts_010522-1.html

[Stevenmarc]

48. Ok file this in the.... Shit Happens Pile

[Retired AF Dem]

49. If it isnt one thing

it's another.

[Toasterlad]

51. How Precious To Assume There'll Still Be Life On Earth In a Thousand Years, Much Less 3200!

The human race will ensure there'll be no one left to greet the gamma wave.

[Statistical]

53. What makes you think you will have 3200 years?

While it will take 3200 years for the wave to reach earth it is possible the star went supernova 3259 years ago.

[Toasterlad]

54. The Astronomers Have Already Determined That the Star Won't Go Bang For Millions of Years.

I'm only working on the theory that it could happen tomorrow.

Either way, I doubt Earth will be more than a lifeless rock by then.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

56. What makes you think Earth would be a lifeless rock by then.

[Toasterlad]

61. Um...I Think Mankind Will Make It Unlivable Within the Next 200 Years Or So.

Fortunately, I'm middle-aged, and have no children, so I don't have a personal investment in continued life on planet Earth.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

55. Betelgeuse is shrinking.

It's shrinking, I tells ya.

[MilesColtrane]

58. There's absolutely nothing scarier than shrinkage!

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

60. Here's an embarassing confession, nothing to do with penises though.

I can remember for many years now the claim that Betelgeuse could have already gone supernova, but we wouldn't know it until it hit us. That idea really had a profound effect on me. Then a few months ago there was a thread in the science forum about direct observations that Betelgeuse was undergoing a significant change in observed diameter- it had shrank by something like 30% in the matter of a year or two. And just the idea really, really creeped me out.