ADP: 84,000 Jobs Whacked In December, Worse Than Expected

[AllentownJake]

ADP: According to today's ADP National Employment Report®, private sector employment decreased by 84,000 in December. The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.

Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights -- December Report:
-- Total employment: -84,000
-- Small businesses* -25,000
-- Medium businesses** -25,000
-- Large businesses*** -34,000
-- Goods-producing sector: -96,000
-- Service-providing sector: +12,000
Addendum:
-- Manufacturing industry: -43,000

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-private-sector-lost-84000-jobs-in-december-2010-1

Ouch, I think there are hidden jobs in online sales and gift cards.

[marmar]

1. There you go again.....raining on the faux recovery parade.

:spank:

[icnorth]

May I borrow your paddle?

This calls for more than one trip to the woodshed... ;-)

[AllentownJake]

4. Don't worry they'll be here in a few minutes

The bat single went up in the BOG group.

[TheWatcher]

66. The Economic Brownshirts, as I refer to them.

Can't handle reality, Can't handle facts, Can't handle Truth, see any of those things as blasphemous to the Football team and it's Quarterback, and therefore must be put down with extreme prejudice.

They are probably already Googling furiously to find some MSM nugget of Propaganda to snuff out this brush fire as we speak.

Critical Thinking is Criminal, AJ.

Didn't you know that?

[AllentownJake]

73. Yep

and than they will link to articles proving my point and not see it, because they will be looking at commentary, not the actual facts in the article.

[Name removed]

79. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[AllentownJake]

3. Why do they hate me so much more than you

:rofl:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. "The December employment decline was the smallest since March of 2008."

"Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months."

:nopity:

[AllentownJake]

10. You cut a man's throat

He'll stop bleeding eventually.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

12. You give a sick patient an antibiotic and they start getting better...

some woo woo goes off on crystal therapy and big pharma conspiracies.

[AllentownJake]

16. WTF are you babbling about now

[TheWatcher]

71. You show an idiot the truth and they dutifily Ignore it.

Or maybe in your case, Jamie Lee Curtis was right.

Apes Can Read Philosophy, they just don't understand it.

Speaking of Ignoring and idiots, how did you escape my list?

This is only going to add years to your sentence, young man.

Oh well, time to correct that.

*Click*.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

115. Yes, I know.

But I think you're missing the irony.

[TheWatcher]

140. Ahhhhh, it's so pleasant when all you see is "Ignored"

Blessed silence.

[Selatius]

2. I wonder how many of those lost manufacturing/goods producing jobs were sent overseas.

I know that some of the job losses in those sectors are simply due to outsourcing operations to countries like China that have very weak environmental and labor standards.

[AllentownJake]

5. Probably most of them

A lot of job losses in manufacturing were do to the fact they have something to blame it on.

[TornadoTN]

6. I would say a very sizable portion went overseas, at least in manufacturing

My company still does manufacturing here in the U.S. and let me tell you, it's very tough to operate with competitors that outsource to China and cut their prices by 25% or more and still make a hefty profit. We had to specialize in a niche market in order to keep things going and profitable, but it's only a matter of time before the outsourcing question is brought up again. The COO has already floated the idea of having parts made and/or purchased from China, Taiwan, and Indonesia.

I know of one company in our sector that closed a shop with 1,200 employees and replaced 3/4 of them with labor in China. All except for the top brass who continue eating the even bigger profits they are raking in now.

[Dr.Phool]

13. A friend of mine was a plant executive.

The were the worlds largest manufacturer of commutators.

Overnight, almost, they became the worlds largest importer of commutators. He was gone too.

[TornadoTN]

17. Yep. That's sadly how it works

The fact that our politicians don't recognize this as a severe problem is probably one of the worst things going on in this country today. These were once well paying jobs that drove entire communities. Now, they are dinosaurs and entire communities collapse around them. Then we see the economic and social mess that it creates in its wake.

We do nothing to protect workers and U.S. companies here at home, but we go out of our way to make sure that executives can make these deals and bring home tons of money for themselves.

[flyarm]

31. oh they recognize it..it is part of the plan!! eom

[Dr.Phool]

35. How ya doin' Fly?

Enjoying our lovely weather?

[flyarm]

74. burrrrr....I was warm in LA..now freezing here...

had to go out and buy socks a little while ago..I worry for our agri..and the porpoise are not coming by as usual right now!!

Hope you had a great holiday.. :)

fly

[Dr.Phool]

83. Picked up a new puppy!

And had friends over, who were single, or in the midst of divorces, with their dogs for x-mas dinner. It was really a madhouse!

[Dr.Phool]

8. Also, sales tax receipts were down 7.7% yoy in December.

Down the same in November. December of 2008 was supposed to be the bottom. Doesn't look like it.
-----------------------------------------------------

Month to date tax receipts are now in for the entire month of December. They’re down 7.7% from December 2008, which is exactly the same rate of decline as November’s. We know that the TBAC and Treasury officials were not anticipating that in their debt sales forecast for the first quarter. They had assumed that a recovery was taking root and would continue to do so. That spells trouble for both bonds and stocks. Here’s why, and what to expect as a result.

Meanwhile, the implications of the NAR’s data on pending home sales are terrifying. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/01/05/tax-receipts-down-means-treasury-supply-up-professional-edition/

[AllentownJake]

9. Online sales and gift cards

was the answer I got from the economic meltdown deniers.

[flyarm]

32. shhhhh..i see some pom pom chewing in the corner..You are blowing their whole line of bullshit

around here the past couple of days..

geezzzzz..Dr Phool..you sure know how to f up a cheerleading party!!

;) :sarcasm: :popcorn: :rofl: :yourock: :yourock: :yourock:

fly

[Dr.Phool]

44. It's the weather!

I hang around the house with the new Lab puppy, and post on DU when she's not chewing on my arm.

[ProSense]

11. Nice spin

ADP press release

[AllentownJake]

14. There were jobs created in the Gift Card sector nt.

[ProSense]

18. You twisted a report with positive news to claim "worse than expected" n/t

[AllentownJake]

19. 75,000 what was expected.

I directly linked an article from a website.

[ProSense]

20. "The decline in December was the smallest since March of 2008."

You cherry picked.

[AllentownJake]

22. I linked

No more offensive when you bold things dear.

[girl gone mad]

26. And you're trying to spin a pretty bad report into something positive.

It's possible that we are turning the corner, but this news indicates we are not turning it very quickly at all.

[TornadoTN]

27. And anyone who thinks manufacturing and goods producing industries will start hiring

Is not looking at things objectively. The economic downfall was a cover for many of them to ship the jobs overseas to increase profits.

I don't look for manufacturing to stop shedding jobs for a very long time.

[ProSense]

29. Question

is it a better report than the first two months of the year?

Nonfarm private employment decreased 522,000 from December 2008 to January 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from November to December 2008 was revised up by 34,000, from a decline of 693,000 to a decline of 659,000.

January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 279,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 243,000, the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 160,000, its twenty-eighth decline over the last twenty-nine months.

link

February 2009:

Nonfarm private employment decreased 697,000 from January 2009 to February 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from December 2008 to January 2009 was revised down by 92,000, from a decline of 522,000 to a decline of 614,000.

February’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 359,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 338,000, the twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 219,000, its thirty-sixth consecutive decline.

link

What about the first increase since March 2008? Bad news?

[TornadoTN]

34. Of course it's better than at that point. But it still isn't positive

Get back to me when real jobs are being created and the downward spiral and demise of the manufacturing industry is reversed.

[ProSense]

36. "Of course it's better than at that point."

Thanks for acknowledging that the OP is bogus spin.

[Peacetrain]

39. Let me ask you this.. From the horror of over 700,000 losing jobs..

and each month the losses are smaller and smaller going to the positive..you did not think that a snap of fingers would move a 700,000 job loss per month to the positive did you...

[AllentownJake]

41. I expect if I got shot

I'd lose a lot of blood at first, and less blood later. The question after I get to the Hospital is will I walk again. The administration's "job creation" efforts have assured me, no but we got a nice electric wheel chair for you.

[Peacetrain]

46. Well at least he did not leave you on the sidewalk to bleed to death..

We are going to be in positive job growth next month and maybe revisions will find us in positive job growth this month

[AllentownJake]

49. Revisions aren't going to happen from ADP hun

That is real time data in a database based on payrolls. Not the squishy government stats.

[Peacetrain]

51. from you article.. "private employment will begin rising within the next few months"

According to Joel Prakken, Chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, "Nonfarm private employment decreased 84,000 from November to December 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report. The December employment decline was the smallest since March of 2008. Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months."

[AllentownJake]

52. The number isn't going to be revised

:rofl:

You made the claim of revisions. It was also seasonably adjusted (I.E the hard numbers are bigger).

You need to create 125,000 jobs a month to break even.

[Peacetrain]

64. Hey you were the one that said

"That is real time data in a database based on payrolls. Not the squishy government stats."


I just pointed out what the article your op is based on said..

"Employment losses are now rapidly diminishing and, if recent trends continue, private employment will begin rising within the next few months."


As I posted:

We are going to be in positive job growth next month and maybe revisions will find us in positive job growth this month

[AllentownJake]

94. and I said they don't revise the ADP data

It isn't a government report which comes out awesome, than turns to shit by the 3rd revision after no one is reporting.

[Nikki Stone1]

118. :)

:)

[TornadoTN]

54. In what sectors?

That's the important facet that needs to be explored. I'd also like to see the pay/compensation that these people are getting as part of these new jobs.

We can create all of the McJobs that we want, but it won't reverse the trends when it comes to poverty, standard of living, etc. etc. etc.

[Peacetrain]

72. Manufacturing report bolsters hopes for recovery

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100104/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/us_economy

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, AP Economics Writer Christopher S. Rugaber, Ap Economics Writer – Mon Jan 4, 1:07 pm ET

WASHINGTON – An unexpectedly strong report on manufacturing activity Monday bolstered confidence that the nation's factories will help sustain an economic recovery.

The report by a private trade group signals that industrial production is likely to keep expanding in coming months, economists said. That could lead, in turn, to increased hiring and job creation.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, said its manufacturing index read 55.9 in December after 53.6 in November. A reading above 50 indicates growth

[TornadoTN]

81. I've seen the article and the stats, I just hope it turns out to be real

If the job creation and hiring does happen here in the states, that will be a welcome change. But I have my doubts, since so many used this as cover to send jobs overseas and to cut the over 45 workforce. I know because I'm heavily involved in the manufacturing and service sector and I've seen first hand.

[LiberalAndProud]

63. Where do they get their figures?

I don't do any payroll reporting until the 15th of the following month. Sales are reported on the 25th. Where do ADP's figures come from? Do you know?

[AllentownJake]

69. ADP is outsourced payroll

I assume when you terminate an employee, you notify the people paying them the terms of severance for the system.

[TornadoTN]

47. Get back to me when the manufacturing and goods producing industries reverse

At best, it will be a lukewarm accomplishment when we stop shedding jobs, but the damage has been done to the manufacturing and goods producing industries. It won't be reversed with the current policies and the realignment of wealth will still be at the top, while many, many struggle.

[AllentownJake]

48. I was wondering why my OP today on the 3 ways to create wealth got

attacked so vehemently by certain posters.

Thanks for answering the question.

[Dr.Phool]

50. This is just ADP. They're ALWAYS lower, and usually wrong.

I think Friday the Labor Dept. numbers come out, and I guarantee you they'll be higher.

Don't take my word for it. Look at them yourself when they come out. I've been commenting on that discrepancy for about 2 years now.

[AllentownJake]

59. ADP doesn't have every payroll in the country

I actually think the ministry of propaganda is going to drop more people from the U3 numbers to cover it up and certain posters here will report the U3 without reading the rest of the report.

[Dr.Phool]

40. In something related, but nobody seems to have picked up on yet....

PIMCO said that they are no longer buying and are selling US and British treasuries.

An indication that a whole lot of shit is gonna hit the fan down the road. They're very wired, and usually right. And it's legal to make trades on the debt market, based on non-public knowledge.

[AllentownJake]

43. Translation Treasury bond interest rates are going up

Supply and Demand.

Higher interest, less money to artificially boost the economy with government spending financed by borrowing.

[Nikki Stone1]

103. Our money is worth crap right now.

....

[Cant trust em]

15. Fancy that. nt

[TornadoTN]

21. From your own link, very troubling statistics:

December’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 12,000, the first increase since March of 2008. However, this employment growth was not enough to offset continued losses in the goods-producing sector. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 96,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 43,000.

Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 34,000 while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 25,000.

Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 25,000. However, small business employment within the service-providing sector increased by 11,000 during December.

In December, construction employment dropped 52,000. This was its thirty-fifth consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,777,000. Employment in the financial services sector dropped 12,000.

Well paying jobs are drying up. Manufacturing is rapidly becoming a dinosaur.

This is a major problem any way that you spin it.

[Name removed]

23. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProSense]

24. January 2009, same sector (updated)

January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 279,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 243,000, the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 160,000, its twenty-eighth decline over the last twenty-nine months.

link

February:

February’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 359,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 338,000, the twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 219,000, its thirty-sixth consecutive decline.

link

[TornadoTN]

25. While the decline is lessening, where are the jobs being created?

Certainly not in these sectors and usually in the service sector, where wages are not comparable for the most part.

[TheWatcher]

113. I'm sorry, the Propaganda you requested cannot be posted at this time

Please try again later.

If you feel you've reached this recording in error, please wait 15 minutes, and I'm sure I'll be able to find something to Copy/Paste for you.

Love,

ProSpin.

[girl gone mad]

28. Good paying manufacturing jobs being replaced by low paying service-sector jobs.

This has been the trend for several quarters now. It is not a positive development.

[Nikki Stone1]

42. Excellent point, and that is the problem

The jobs coming in are, on the whole, low-paying jobs.

[TornadoTN]

57. But that doesn't fit in with the propaganda that so many spout

It's funny, because the GOP did this for years under Bush and the same people cheerleading the "jobs" being created today were railing against this when the GOP was using it as their own propaganda piece.

[Nikki Stone1]

61. When you follow the issue, it becomes clear

regardless of who is in charge.

[nadinbrzezinski]

55. THanks people don't get BASIC economics

before you can go into the positive numbers, you need to lower the negative numbers. It is expected, current trends holding, that we will have positive growth by the first quarter.

Of course trends are good... and all that

[Nikki Stone1]

117. Hey Nadin

How life?

[nadinbrzezinski]

135. Life's good

watching apocalypse man, apart of the refresher the fact that they are ... running programs like this... is scary.

[Nikki Stone1]

136. No kidding.

Well, at least we don't have snow. :)

[nadinbrzezinski]

137. Oh there is that

we will watch the reset of the country dig out (as well as Northern Mexico... this blast is reaching all the way to ahem parents in mexico city)

[TheWatcher]

112. From the Absolute QUEEN Of Spin.

You get more desperate every day.

And more obvious.

[earth mom]

139. + 10000000000000!!! nt

[galileoreloaded]

114. All I can figure....

is that either you are married to Tim Geitner or Larry Summers, or are HEAVILY invested in both the equity and Treasury markets. It's either that or you are seriously wealthy, like "fuck you money" wealthy.

These are the only three things that could explain your fervent adherence to this dystopic macro-economic fantasia you continually promote here.

Kisses,
GR

[jpak]

30. What a steaming pile of blatant horseshit - this was the BEST jobs report in 2 FUCKING YEARS

and November's jobs losses were revised DOWNWARD from 169,000 to 145,000.

:thumbsdown:

[Dr.Phool]

33. Still nothing to write home about.

Remember, 125,000 jobs need to be added each month just to keep pace with population increases.

[jpak]

37. The end of the worst recession in 80 years IS something to write home about

sorry to burst the doom bubble

[Nikki Stone1]

53. But it hasn't ended.

That's the problem. We're not anywhere near the end of the woods yet.

[AllentownJake]

56. We are smack dab in the middle of the woods

with no flash light and Rahm Emmanuel taking a bribe from the Big Bad Wolf to let us know when we get to Grannys.

[Dr.Phool]

58. If you just believe hard enough!

[TornadoTN]

60. I think all of the "Hope" has really clouded a lot of peoples minds

I'm sure when the jobs report goes positive, there will be a lot of cheerleading. But once you dig into it and realize that the jobs that were created aren't well-paying jobs that can keep up with what people need to live, you'll get shouted down as a naysayer.

I've been preaching about the lack of well-paying jobs since the Bush years and I'm not going to stop now just because we have a Democratic President. A pile of shit is still a pile of shit, regardless of whose lawn its on.

[Nikki Stone1]

62. Are they still talking about the W graph?

With a little bounce of recovery and then back to deep recession again?

[jpak]

75. No - they are not

n/t

[Nikki Stone1]

92. The question was to Allentown Jake who actually keeps track of this

..

[AllentownJake]

97. My ignored is bothering you?

Keep your eye on the Treasury Bond auctions and interest rates. Interest rates rise, yes. The government still able to borrow and re-finance the deficit, no.

[Nikki Stone1]

105. They're eventually going to have to raise rates

Is there a good article on this?

[AllentownJake]

107. Zero Hedge and the Market Ticker are watching it

MSM wouldn't know how to report it.

Eventually people are going to demand inflation priced into bonds with over 1 year duration when they realize we will monetize our debt. Particularly with the FED Mortgage Backed Security bailout that is going on right now...btw, I thought that was what TARP was originally for.

Our leaders are getting almost amusing to watch right now.

[Nikki Stone1]

119. OK, the Mortgage Backed Securities...these are the so-called toxic ones

What exactly did TARP do if it didn't bail them out?

[AllentownJake]

120. Bonuses nt.

[Nikki Stone1]

121. No!

That can't have been all!

[AllentownJake]

122. Hookers and Coke nt.

[Nikki Stone1]

123. Oh Jesus God!

:rofl:

[Bluebear]

128. hehehe

[Nikki Stone1]

131. It's my tax money.

They should be my hookers and coke!

[jpak]

111. Ignored and with good reason

:evilgrin:

[jpak]

102. The answer is still - no they are not

n/t

[jpak]

65. Yes it has, US GDP was tanking at -6.4% in the 1st quarter of 2009 - it GREW at +2.2% in the 3rd Q

Recession over

period

[TornadoTN]

67. Tell that to all of those still out of work, underinsured/uninsured, and having to take scraps

of a paycheck working McJobs.

[jpak]

70. Unemployment has peaked, is in decline and will keep on dropping this year

too bad for the doomers and haters

[Nikki Stone1]

77. "Hat in hand, U.S. turns to India to create jobs"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34643658/ns/business-businessweekcom/

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland is quick to admit that he doesn't "particularly enjoy heights." So why would he climb into a cherry picker to be lifted 40 feet in the air?

To show off a 196,000-square-foot office park in the Cincinnati suburb of Milford to executives from Tata Consultancy Services, India's biggest tech company and a thriving part of the Tata Group conglomerate.

To sweeten the deal, Strickland threw in $19 million in tax credits and invited the TCS crew to a state dinner at the governor's mansion. "The economy is difficult," Strickland says. "I will go wherever I can to find jobs."...

[jpak]

85. The Horror - heaven forbid we encourage foreign investment to create US jobs

We should boycott Ohio!!!1111

:thumbsdown:

[Raineyb]

116. You do realize that when a foreign country invests they take their profits back home right?

You really think it's a good thing for a state to be so desperate that it'll encourage foreign investment knowing that large portions of the profits will leave the jurisdiction in order to get crumbs for its residents?

[TornadoTN]

78. Yeah, we sure are doomers and haters - but you apparently live in a fairy tale land

Tell me, where are the well-paying jobs these days? Where are the jobs being created?

Don't bother, I don't need to hear bullshit spin.

[Nikki Stone1]

80. "Silicon Valley 'Bloodbath' Leaves Entire Office Buildings Empty"

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jan2010/db2010015_516128.htm

...Unemployment in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara metro area that includes Silicon Valley was 11.8 percent in November, down from the August record of 12.1 percent, according to California's Employment Development Department. Applied Materials Inc. and Sun Microsystems Inc. in Santa Clara and Adobe Systems Inc. in San Jose announced more than 5,000 job cuts since October amid falling sales of computer chips, software and equipment.

Commercial property foreclosures will at least double in 2010 and job growth won't return for two years after that, held back by U.S. consumers who are saving more and "getting back in line with sustainable spending habits," Haveman said.

DOMINO EFFECT

Bloated inventory and tight lending standards will curtail office construction in pockets around California for "the next several years," said Jack Kyser, founding economist of the Kyser Center for Economic Research at the Los Angeles Economic Development Corp.

"That means there won't be jobs for construction workers and hence no tax revenue from sales of construction materials," Kyser said. "It is the ultimate domino effect."

[Nikki Stone1]

82. "Personal Bankruptcy Filings Rising Fast"

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126263231055415303.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

The number of Americans filing for personal bankruptcy rose by nearly a third in 2009, a surge largely driven by foreclosures and job losses.

And more people are filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which liquidates assets to pay off some debts and absolves the filers of others. That is significant because a 2005 overhaul of federal bankruptcy laws aimed to encourage Chapter 13 filings, which force consumers to sign onto debt-repayment plans in exchange for keeping certain assets.

The changes were designed to make it more difficult for people to shed their debt, particularly in a Chapter 7 filling. A "means" test, for example, was introduced to separate those who could afford to repay their debt from those who couldn't. A Chapter 7 filing is off the table if the means test determines a person is able to pay back at least a portion of the debt after it is restructured.....

[Nikki Stone1]

84. "Krugman Sees 30-40% Chance of U.S. Recession in 2010 (Update1)"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adEjJ0gcev7Q&pos=4

an. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said he sees about a one-third chance the U.S. economy will slide into a recession during the second half of the year as fiscal and monetary stimulus fade.

“It is not a low probability event, 30 to 40 percent chance,” Krugman, an economics professor at Princeton University, said today in an interview in Atlanta, where he was attending an economics conference. “The chance that we will have growth slowing enough that unemployment ticks up again I would say is better than even.”

Krugman, 56, said the Federal Reserve’s plan to end purchases of $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of federal agency debt in March could spur an increase in mortgage rates and lead to declines in home sales and prices.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his fellow policy makers, seeking to revive credit markets, cut the benchmark interest rate almost to zero in December 2008 while switching to asset purchases and credit programs as the main policy tools. The U.S. central bank has expanded its balance sheet to $2.24 trillion from $858 billion at the start of 2007.

“Probably mortgage rates go up some,” Krugman said. Housing sales may “falter,” he added.

.....

[jpak]

86. Krugman sees 60-70% chance that we will NOT slide back into recession - BFD

too bad

[TornadoTN]

87. Here's where the cheerleaders turn on Krugman

Since they switched quickly when he started talking in a positive light about their health care "reform".

[Nikki Stone1]

88. The fact that Krugman has any doubts at all and has publicized them

is the real story there.

[TornadoTN]

89. Exactly right.

Krugman hasn't been exactly optimistic about the current economic environment. Many economists feel the same.

[Nikki Stone1]

100. He's also trying not to panic people: he doesn't work that way

If he's out there saying 30-40%, it's probably worse.

[Nikki Stone1]

90. Here's more from Krugman: Beware the Blip

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/opinion/04krugman.html

That 1937 Feeling

By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: January 3, 2010

Here’s what’s coming in economic news: The next employment report could show the economy adding jobs for the first time in two years. The next G.D.P. report is likely to show solid growth in late 2009. There will be lots of bullish commentary — and the calls we’re already hearing for an end to stimulus, for reversing the steps the government and the Federal Reserve took to prop up the economy, will grow even louder.


But if those calls are heeded, we’ll be repeating the great mistake of 1937, when the Fed and the Roosevelt administration decided that the Great Depression was over, that it was time for the economy to throw away its crutches. Spending was cut back, monetary policy was tightened — and the economy promptly plunged back into the depths.

This shouldn’t be happening. Both Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman, and Christina Romer, who heads President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, are scholars of the Great Depression. Ms. Romer has warned explicitly against re-enacting the events of 1937. But those who remember the past sometimes repeat it anyway.

As you read the economic news, it will be important to remember, first of all, that blips — occasional good numbers, signifying nothing — are common even when the economy is, in fact, mired in a prolonged slump. In early 2002, for example, initial reports showed the economy growing at a 5.8 percent annual rate. But the unemployment rate kept rising for another year.....


If the economy were doing fine, Krugman would not be arguing for more stimulus money.

[Dr.Phool]

91. Nikki, slow down.

If you feed them too much reality, to fast, they'll :puke: :puke: :puke:

[Nikki Stone1]

95. And then there's always the rising oil prices that could scuttle everything

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/01/oil-prices-push-above-81-per-barrel.html

Oil Prices Push Above $81 per Barrel

From the NY Times: Oil Surges Above $81, Driven by Several Factors

A combination of frigid weather, expectations of an improving economy and new tensions between Russia and Belarus catapulted crude oil prices above $81 a barrel on Monday.
Higher prices could impact the U.S. economic recovery (it is probably time to start watching U.S. vehicle miles driven again).

Back in the Spring of 2008, we started seeing many signs of potential demand destruction - including fewer U.S miles driven, Asian countries reducing gasoline subsidies, and China stock piling oil for the Olympics.

And maybe we are seeing the first signs of demand destruction again, since the Dept of Transportation reports that U.S. vehicle miles declined in October: Traffic Volume Trends....

[AllentownJake]

98. That's a bad thing? nt

[704wipes]

38. $100 bet most were over 45 and a 'drain' on company health ins

I hope a bunch of them were freepers too.
See how they like this country's insurance shit sandwich.

[Nikki Stone1]

45. K & R Jake

:patriot:

[thunder rising]

68. However, the good news is that 65,000 H1-B got jobs. You gotta see the positive side

So, in fact we gained jobs. We just didn't get to work 'em.

[TornadoTN]

76. Bbbbbuttt those are jobs no American's want!!!!

:sarcasm:

I get the H1-B stuff at work, begging me to hop onto the newest big thing in the industry - hire people from out of the country to come in and do the work for you - at a lower price!!!

It's pathetic that we are still allowing this to go on. I've got two full drawers of a filing cabinet filled with applications from people in our area desperately looking for work.

[Dr.Phool]

96. .

:wtf: :wow:

sez it all.

[Bluebear]

93. Cue: "DECEMBER??? OLD NEWS!!!" with a bunch of blue links

[Name removed]

99. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Dr.Phool]

101. Kick

where it can be seen.

[StarfarerBill]

104. K&R

[Canuckistanian]

106. I hope the gift card industry is hiring engineers

Or McDonald's is hiring sociologists.

[AllentownJake]

108. Huge growth in Gift Cards this year....huge, they saved Christmas. nt.

[Canuckistanian]

109. You know, I believe it

We sent out a massive amount of Xmas cards this year. More than usual, probably in lieu of an actual visit and gift exchange.

[AllentownJake]

110. The online sale/gift card thing on my post yesterday

Let's say there was a 10% increase in both. It still probably doesn't cover the retail missing in the tax data. 10% sounds huge but if someone told me there was a 5% decrease in traditional retail and a 10% increase in those categories, they would have to be half the size of the traditional to make up for it.

:shrug:

[WT Fuheck]

124. the government we elected in 2006 and 2008 to change things and save the economy

has done neither. Indeed, they haven't even tried.

[scheming daemons]

125. AllentownJake with more misleading spin

The consensus among economists was that the ADP report would show a drop of 90,000 jobs.

It showed 84,000 instead... 6,000 better than the projection.


It is also the best ADP report in 25 months.


In summary... It is good news.


But AllentownJake has an agenda.... so he's dishonest.

[girl gone mad]

127. The story is from the Business Insider, not AllentownJake.

The consensus was for 75K jobs lost, not 90k. Therefore, the number came in 9,000 worse than projected.

I'm sorry, but I didn't hear from one single, solitary analyst today who considered this report "good news".

What's in the water you people drink?

[AllentownJake]

129. Do you want an answer to that question? nt.

[AllentownJake]

130. rofl

Well it's better than the hate mail.

[Nikki Stone1]

132. "The Street was expecting a number around 75k"

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-private-sector-lost-84000-jobs-in-december-2010-1

So 84K is actually 9,000 more jobs lost than what they expected, according to the article. I don't know where you got your 90K figure from; it's certainly not in the article Jake posted.

[AllentownJake]

133. CNBS (CNBC) or made it up to attack my character. nt

[Nikki Stone1]

134. Please don't make me laugh

when I have splitting headache!
:rofl:

[debbierlus]

126. This is a disaster.

[earth mom]

138. I keep reading on DU that 40 to 50 THOUSAND factories have closed since 2000.

But can't find a link to back it up.

Anyone have one?

Because I'd like to have that link handy to shove in the cheerleaders faces.

Also-K & R the OP! :kick: