People are dying of cold in Europe

[malaise]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8443252.stm
<snip>
Severe winter weather has brought dangerous conditions and transport disruption to parts of Europe.

In the UK, thousands of schools were closed and travellers have been hit by major delays after heavy snowfall left swathes of the country at a halt.

Temperatures as low as -22C (-8F) have left 122 dead in Poland this winter, while in central Norway temperatures plummeted to -41C (-42F) on Wednesday.

In the Swiss Alps avalanches have killed at least seven people.

A weather alert has been issued for 14 regions in south-western France that were hit by heavy snow.

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. Dang. 42 below?! I'd hate to try to live through that in this trailer. I'm so sorry that

many other people have been trying to get through unusually cold weather and not making it. :(

[roguevalley]

29. and I sit here in alaska with balmy 34 degrees and rain. :(

[eleny]

2. Wow, and the bitter cold is supposed to go on for weeks

[AlienGirl]

3. ...thermohaline? How's it doing these days? And we are still sunspotless, a la Maunder Minimum...

[tabatha]

7. Yep, melting of the glaciers changes the gulf stream

a) One of the fears of global warming, is that the jet stream will slow down, and eventually result in the northern hemisphere being under snow/ice::

"According to Paul R. Epstein, at the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard Medical School. Global Warming is what's making it colder in the winter in the US:
Normally, water circulates in the North Atlantic like this: Cold, salty water at the top sinks; that sinking water acts as a pump, pulling warm Gulf Stream water north and thus moderating winter weather. But now, fresh water from the thawing ice and heavier rain is accumulating near the ocean's surface; it's not sinking as quickly. (The tropics are faced with the opposite phenomenon.)

According to Dr. Ruth Curry and her colleagues at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the tropical Atlantic is becoming saltier; as warming increases, so does evaporation, which leaves behind salt.) The "freshening" in the North Atlantic may be contributing to a high-pressure system that is accelerating trans-Atlantic winds and deflecting the jet stream — changes that may be driving frigid fronts down the Eastern Seaboard. The ice-core records demonstrate that the North Atlantic can freshen to a point where the deep-water pump fails, warm water stops coming north, and the northern ocean suddenly freezes, as it did in the last Ice Age.

No one can say if that is what will happen next. But since the 1950's, the best documented deep-water pump, between Iceland and Scotland, has slowed 20 percent."


b) Global warming may lead to colder winters in Britain

Greenland's melting glaciers have the power to change Britain's climate because of the way they can interfere with the Gulf Stream of the North Atlantic, which keeps winters relatively mild. Scientists have found the first hard evidence to show that this actually happened 8,200 years ago, when the climate in parts of the northern hemisphere cooled dramatically after a period of global warming.Paradoxically, a warmer world could lead to harsher winters in Britain because of the way that melting freshwater from the Greenland ice cap can interfere with the saltwater engine that drives the Gulf Stream.

The scientists found that 8,200 years ago the North Atlantic current slowed down at a time when a freshwater lake, which had formed from the melting glaciers of the last Ice Age, flooded into the sea. They believe that the lake released so much freshwater it diluted the surface water of the sea and so slowed down the warm North Atlantic currents, which are generated by the sinking of cold, salty water. "The 8,200-year-old event is the most recent abrupt climate-change event and by far the most extreme cooling episode in the past 10,000 years," Mark Chapman, a palaeoclimatologist at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, said.

The study, published in the journal Science, involved drilling for a core of seabed sediments from the south of Iceland and analysing it for indications of both the speed of the ocean currents and the saltiness of the sea.

"Our records show a sequenced pattern of freshening and cooling of the North Atlantic sea surface and a change in the deep ocean circulation, all key factors... in controlling... northern hemisphere climate," Dr Chapman said. The core contained sediments representing the current "interglacial" warm period that began at the end of the last Ice Age about 10,000 years ago, Christopher Ellison of the University of East Anglia said. "The sediment includes... small animals called foraminifera that record surface water conditions in their shells when living," Mr Ellison said. "We also analysed the sediment grain size to gauge the speed of ocean currents and the strength of ocean circulation."

[kestrel91316]

12. Holy "The Day After Tomorrow", Batman!!

[AlienGirl]

26. Remember the recent evidence that ice ages can set in within a matter of months rather than decades?

Bum-ba-BAAAM....

[happyslug]

13. The sun seems to be waking up, to late for this winter

Sunspot 1039 is disappearing over the edge of the Sun, unless a new sunspot starts this will make 1/7/2010 the first spotless day in 2010 (Yes sunspots have been active, not as active as they should be but active over the last couple of weeks):

For more see:
http://spaceweather.com/

[happyslug]

18. As to the Thermohaline circulation

I have two additional comments, the first one is more a comment then anything else but that it takes 1600 years for the current to go from one point in the cycle to the same point (It is more complex then one cycle, but for purposes of demonstration I am making that assumption). 1600 years ago was 400 AD, some people believe the start of the Dark Age Cool period that lasted till about 800 AD. Could we just be seeing the echo of a previous cold period? i.e. 1600 years ago the world was getting colder, thus the water was colder, and now that colder air is coming to the surface. This is probably nonsense but it is something to think about (for example the baby-boom went from 1947-1964, the average age of birth parents tend to be about 25 years so an "Echo Boom" occurred from 1973-1989, this Echo was NOT has deep as the original baby boom but was significant to be talked about in the 1980s and the early 1990s as these echo boomer's hit the schools, Please note marketeers tend to try to break up these groups into even smaller groups, trying to make the Baby Boomer's to be only those born around the peak year for the baby boom which was 1957, thus lets be careful when using these terms for marketeers want to make each new 4-5 year groups a new marketing group, whether that is really the case or not).


My Second Comment is much more germane, for it has to do with the actual Thermohaline. The present theory in regards to Thermohaline circulation is that the Gulf Stream flows north to the Arctic ("pushed" by the sun heating the waters of the Caribbean), where those waters are blocked by the Ice of the Arctic AND the shadow waters of the Bering Straits (The water flowing into the Arctic via the Gulf Stream, can NOT push any water out of the Arctic for the only way sufficient water can exit is the Atlantic which is how the Gulf Stream waters arrived into the Arctic in the first place). Given that even more warm water is coming into the Arctic via the Gulf Stream and the Bering Straits are to shadow for the water needed to be moved out of the Arctic to make room for the new water arriving from the Gulf Stream, the only way for the water to exit the Arctic is to go DOWN below the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The problem is for the waters to do this the waters MUST lose heat. As the heat escapes, the water drops (And the wind takes the heat to Europe, this "lost" heat is what makes Europe warmer then any other place on its latitude in the world.). The resulting water is very cold and salty (The heat takes water with it, but the water in the air no longer has the salt mixed in with it thus the now cold water is also extra Salty). The cold salty water flows south, under the Gulf Stream, down the Atlantic, for the Atlantic is the only deep water next to the Arctic.

The Cold Salty water flows south and is joined by cold Salty water flowing from the Mediterranean sea. This water is very similar to the Gulf Stream, the Mediterranean sea loses water in the two large sections of the Mediterranean and then the then salty and Cold water flows out at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea. This water leaves the Mediterranean sea almost like a waterfall as it flows over and down the escarpment between Gibraltar and Morocco (This escarpment is the remains of an old barrier connecting Spain with Morocco, it broke about 3.5 million years ago flooding the Mediterranean sea and creating the water flows in and out of the Mediterranean

More on the Mediterranean Sea:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_Sea

The flooding of the Mediterranean Sea 3.5 million years ago:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messinian_Salinity_Crisis

As the cold and salt water flows south in the Atlantic, it is blocked from going west by the Shadowiness of Drakes Passage (The bottom of Drake Passage is ABOVE where the cold and salty water is floating). Here the water are undermined by an even colder/denser water from the Wendall Sea of Antarctica. These two sets of Cold Water flows eastward around Antarctica and the Southern Indian Ocean till both sets of water flows into the Pacific and finally forced up to absorb heat in the Northern Pacific south of the Bering Straits..

This raise in the height the water is flowing and its absorption of heat do to the raise in height is one of the reason that when Ice Ages start they tend to be stronger in North American then Siberia. The North Pacific needs heat as those cold and salty water raise to the surface and thus pulls heat from the air, making Canada much colder then Siberia for air flows West to East. Any hot air from Siberia, China and the rest of Eastern Asia is quickly absorbed by the North Pacific before it gets to Canada. Yes Siberia is COLD, often Colder then Canada but during Ice Ages, Alaska and Siberia do NOT have the Glaciers North America (East of Alaska) gets. Ice ages tend to start in Greenland, spread to Labrador and then the rest of Central and Eastern Canada before heading south to what is now the USA.

Remember the flow is as long as 1600 years so that an ice age can see two things, first the Gulf Stream flows further south then it does now, making Europe colder (and parts of Eastern US Colder), while at the same time water is still raising in the North Pacific absorbing heat that does NOT get to Central and Eastern Canada. It may take the whole 1600 years for the system to break down, through probably once it stops in any one area it stops completely (i.e. within months not 1600 years).

Once you understand the system, how could it make Eastern North America and Western Europe Colder? Could the Gulf Stream being going to far into the Arctic so that the heat that is being lost as the Gulf Stream water sinks is heating the ice (melting the ice) instead of going directly from liquid to Air? i.e. going from SOLID to LIQUID then to AIR (At each step needing more and more heat to make the change). Each step would require more and more heat leaving less heat to warm Europe? This would end once the Arctic is ice free (but then it might not, for the Arctic may turn to Ice in Winter and thus that Winter ice would absorb most of the Warm water of the Gulf Stream, leaving Europe Cold? Just thoughts, but would explain why Europe and Eastern North America is colder this year then in previous years (And yes, Last year was also a cold winter but may be a Trend as to Winter).

Remember water will always find its own level, i.e. the Surface of the Oceans will ALWAYS be the same height world wide. A current (any current) must push other water in front of it. Thus any current is not only a driving force in the ocean, it is also the result of other currents. The real issue is now far north is the Gulf Stream waters going and what is happening to the heat that water absorbed when it was baked by the heat in the Caribbean sea? Is the lack of Hurricanes over the last two summers leading to a greater amount of heat in those waters and thus pushing to far into the Arctic to heat Europe? I.e. the water is not sinking off Norway but in the heat of the Arctic itself? That would explain the last two winters, both had been cold compared to previous winters (And would be consistent with Global Warming theory, Hurricanes are a product of the Sun heating the waters of the Caribbean sea. La Nino has caused excessive high winds over the Caribbean and mid Atlantic so few hurricanes have been formed the last few years.

Water Circulation:
http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ritter/geog101/textbook/circulation/ocean_circulation.html

La Nino/ Southern Southern Oscillation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o-Southern_Oscillation

In La Nina years, things look "Normal" for Europe and Eastern North America (it is believed we are still in a La Nina situation for the last two years, thus the lack of hurricanes:


La Ninos and La Ninas do NOT seem to have any affect on Areas North of the American South (Through Ohio-Indiana area gets increased rainfall during the winter months during La Nina events, no one know why) and no affect on Europe or Siberia. We may be facing a new situation, a La Nina with a much weaker ability of the Arctic to cancel the affect of La Nina on Europe's and Eastern North America winters. Just food for thought.

[Cleita]

20. Hi.

:hi: I haven't seen you posting for awhile.

[happyslug]

22. I have to work, it has something to do about about getting paid....

n/t

[Cleita]

23. Nice to have you around when you can.

:-)

[malaise]

28. Some nice pics

and the song of the week
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UkCzGzqikUA

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/snow-in-the-uk-your-pictures-and-snow-map-1858539.html?action=Popup&ino=9

[babylonsister]

4. Read this yesterday...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7400076

Pensioners burn books for warmth

[malaise]

6. Damn there is some use for Palin's book

This is sad.

[depakid]

5. Two decades of unusual warmth and people forget what winters could be like

[malaise]

8. Absolutely

My sis in Denmark is in shock at the amount of snow - she hasn't seen anything like this is ages.

[depakid]

17. Not to belittle the hardship in the OP- but that last bit reminded me of something

you posted last year.

Cracked me up big time:

A Jamaican's First Snow Flakes

Diary of a Jamaican who moved to Canada
November 14th

Started snowing. The first of the season and the first real snow we have ever seen. The wife took buttered buns and we sat by the window watching the soft flakes drift down,clinging to the trees and covering the ground could never do anything like this in Jamaica.

IT WAS BEAUTIFUL.

November 15th

We woke to a lovely blanket of crystal white snow covering the landscape.

What a FANTASTIC sight! Every tree and shrub was covered with a beautiful white mantle.I shovelled snow for the first time and loved it. I did both our driveway and sidewalk. Later, the city snowplough came along and accidentally covered up our driveway with compacted snow from the street. But the driver smiled and waved and I waved back and shovelled again. Canadians are so friendly! unlike those people who work the corporate area.

November 16th

It snowed an additional twelve inches last night and the temperature has dropped to around four degrees, the cold weather is not so bad, we can take this, not at all as bad as we imagined....

The rest: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x4674237

[malaise]

25. hahahahahha

That's one of my favorites. :D
Enjoy this pic from the UK Independent



add link

[babylonsister]

9. A lot of people weren't born two decades ago; I forgive their ignorance.

And this season is fierce, despite you trying to poo-poo it.

[depakid]

16. Reminds me of the desert southwest- where people (and not just the current crew)

built cities during unusually wet periods- only to be stricken by droughts when the "normal" patterns return.

As to ignorance (or "things will always be like this because it's all I've ever personally known) - there's nothing to forgive.

People- or communities- or governments aren't prepared- and some suffer or die.

Just how it is.

[madrchsod]

11. i noticed that while watching the news today....

[14thColony]

24. I just read Bill Bryson's book on Shakespeare

and it mentioned his company of players dismantling the original Globe theater and moving it piece by piece across the frozen Thames to re-assemble it on the south bank. The Thames used to routinely freeze over every winter! Not even close to that now. I sit in London today during this 'terrible winter' we're having and I note the Thames is still 100 percent liquid, and while there's a lot of snow the temps are still barely below freezing during the day. I would imagine New Englanders would laugh at our 'harsh winter' here.

[madrchsod]

10. 30 years since the last deep cold spell ....

-8 is`t cold unless you`re living on the streets....

[muriel_volestrangler]

14. Meanwhile, in south eastern Europe (Istanbul), forecast is for 12C above normal

Jan avg. daytime max: 8 C (46 F)

Friday forecast: 20 C (68 F)

[stray cat]

15. I thought life was perfect in Europe and bad stuff only happens to people in America

:shrug:

[Luminous Animal]

19. You read too many snarky right wing pundits.

[lastliberalintexas]

21. I don't know anyone who ever said that

Though many liberals I know acknowledge that most things are better in the social democracies of Western Europe, I don't actually know anyone who has ever said it's perfect there. Though I understand Lauterbrunnen is about as close to heaven as one can get.


The majority of the deaths reported so far are in Poland, one of the most most conservative, church controlled states of Europe. Things that make you go hmm.

[malaise]

27. +1

Profound.

[rockymountaindem]

30. Poland also has a lower level of development overall

as a result of never really having recovered from WWII and the Communist era. They missed out on the boom decades from 1950-1970 that allowed W. Europe to build the high quality of life they now enjoy.

[Odin2005]

31. Anyone checking on the Gulf Stream thermohaline conveyor belt?

:scared: