‘Afghan Insurgency Can Sustain Itself Indefinitely’: Top U.S. Intel Officer

[bigtree]

from Wired.com: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/01/afghan-insurgency-can-sustain-itself-indefinitely-top-us-intel-officer/




The Taliban not only has the “momentum” after the most successful year in its campaign against the United States and the Kabul government. “The Afghan insurgency can sustain itself indefinitely,” according to a briefing from Major General Michael Flynn, the top U.S. intelligence officer in the country. “The Taliban retains the required partnerships to sustain support, fuel legitimacy and bolster capacity.”

And if that isn’t enough, Flynn also warns that “time is running out” for the American-lead International Security Assistance Force. “Regional instability is rapidly increasing and getting worse,” the report says.

___ Flynn’s December 23rd presentation on the “State of the Insurgency: Trends, Intentions and Objectives” may be the gloomiest public assessment of the war yet. The “loosely organized” Taliban is “growing more cohesive” and “increasingly effective.” The insurgents now have their own “governors” installed in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. And the “strength and ability of that shadow governance increasing,” according to the presentation. The Taliban’s “organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding.”


___ The presentation also cast doubt on some of the war’s stated central aims. The Obama administration has repeatedly said that additional troops are necessary to prevent a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan — which would then allow Al Qaeda the re-establigh its safe haven there. According to interviews with detainees, however, the insurgents “view Al Qaeda as a handicap – a view that is increasingly prevalent.” The Taliban feel they have to “manage the relationship with AQ to avoid alienating Afghan population, but encourage support from the global jihad network.”

Flynn’s presentation also, indirectly, warns that one of the central U.S. tactics in Pakistan — drone strikes against suspected militants — could backfire. “violations of Pakistan sovereignty may contribute to radicalizing the population and diminishes credibility of the GoP (Government of Pakistan).” Such violations “demonstrate an inability of the government; perception they cannot protect their own; exacerbates anti-western sentiment.”


read more http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/01/afghan-insurgency-can-sustain-itself-indefinitely-top-us-intel-officer/

[StarfarerBill]

1. Of course; it's native, can live amongst the people, and can move around fairly freely.

The occupation forces are tied to bases, don't have popular support, and their very existence makes the situation in the region worse.

[Winterblues]

2. Well Duhhhh.

Nine years later and counting......,.

[shadowknows69]

3. We can't have another Vietnam. Our national ego can't handle it.

General's cocks will be falling off by the dozens. We must stay until we win. Or everyone is dead. Whichever comes first. Ask Fallujah about that.

[sarge43]

4. Pssst sir, you can kiss that third star bye-bye.

The five sided circus shoots messengers, especially when they speak the truth, but you knew that already.

Well, put in your retirement papers and thank you for being an honest man.