If the Republican Brown wins in MA, is healthcare reform dead?

[kentuck]

Most polls show Coakley, the Democrat, leading by a wide margin in the race. However, there are some polls that show it much closer.

The voters go to the polls on January 19th and several factors are at play. Republicans and the Tea Partiers are more fired up than Democrats. Generally, Repubs get out for special elections in higher numbers than Democrats, for whatever reason. Also, the weather may be a factor at this time of year?

[madrchsod]

1. only god can raise it from the dead

[yourout]

2. Probably - but it might force the Dems to ram something better thru....

reconciliation.

[BzaDem]

8. No. What it will force the House to do is approve the Senate bill verbatim, with NO changes.

Then it doesn't need to go back to the Senate for a vote.

That's what it really comes down to. If Coakley wins, the House can make slight improvements to the Senate bill (that the Senate will likely pass). If Brown wins, then every word of the Senate bill becomes law.

[yourout]

10. Possibly....but I think that is what we are going to get either way.

Future budgetary bill on the other hand might end up going the reconciliation route if we lose the 60.

[leftstreet]

3. If this HCR was worth passing, maybe the Dems would be more fired up?

Mebbe?

[Sebastian Doyle]

4. Health care reform died with the man who held that seat for decades.

And all the DLC'ers and corporatists with the Teddy avatars who support this shit bill can kiss my ass.

[crazyjoe]

5. never happen.

[dysfunctional press]

6. obama's old senate seat in illinois is probably going to flip to republican as well.

rod blagojevich, and the mess he created around that seat...has left a bad taste in voter's mouths when it comes to Democrats...the current healthcare legislation isn't going to help much, either.

around this time next year, it will be senator mark kirk(il-r)

[KharmaTrain]

7. Doubtful...

First of all Capt'n Kirk's gotta make it out of a primary with a couple of tea baggers...one whose already run an ad calling him a "homosexual"...the GOOP primary is gonna be fun times. And that doesn't take into consideration a party that hasn't won a major statewide election since 2000 and still has the stench of George Ryan all over it. Blago's a fool who could end up in the can, but Ryan's corruption killed people...and the voters here remember that.

Like Massetchussets, Democrats enjoy a large advantage over the GOOP...especially in Chicago and suburban St. Louis. Giannoulis has already won statewide as opposed to Kirk who barely won his race in '08. Many rushpublicans have become either "liberatarians" or tea baggers...and if Kirk's the nominee, they'll be staying home.

[dysfunctional press]

9. time will tell...

i hope giannoulis the best- but as it stands, i see it as kirk's election to lose.

[backscatter712]

11. It'll be hurt...

The House will be forced to vote on the Senate bill with zero modifications, because if they modify it, it'll have to get voted on by the Senate, which at that point would only have 59 votes. Without modifications, if the House passes it, it can go directly to Obama's desk.

But I'd prefer that the House be able to get some improvements to the bill through the ping-pong process, which means that we want Coakely to win.

I think she will win - this is Massachusetts we're talking about.