Robert Reich: The Bad Job Numbers and the Secret Second Stimulus

[marmar]

The Bad Job Numbers and the Secret Second Stimulus
Robert Reich Jan 11, 2010 1:23PM


The Labor Department reports that 85,000 jobs were lost in December. The official rate of unemployment (which measures how many people are looking for jobs) held steady at 10 percent nonetheless. That’s because so many more people have stopped looking. Reportedly, 661,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force last month, deciding there was no hope of finding a job. Had they continued to look, the official unemployment rate would have been 10.4 percent.

These statistics mask an even more troubling reality. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, around 8 million jobs have been lost. But this doesn’t include all the people who, in a growing national population, would have entered the labor market had there been jobs for them. These “never entereds” amount to an estimated 2.5 million. So, in truth, the national economy is down by 10.6 million jobs overall. There’s no way to make this up for years.

The most painful political truth for Democrats is the nation won’t possibly be out of this jobs hole by the presidential election of 2012, even if the recovery is vigorous. Do the math. In order to get out of the hole, we’d need an average monthly increase of 400,000 jobs between now and then. But even at the peak of the 1990s jobs boom, the highest we ever got was 280,000 jobs a month. At the peak of the last recovery, in 2005, we got no higher than 212,000 jobs a month. Bottom line: Obama will be going into an election year with a higher total level of unemployment than before the Great Recession. He will have to argue that, were it not for his policies, things would be even worse. Counter-factuals like this do not sit well on bumper stickers.

Almost 40 percent of the jobless have been without work for over six months. That’s a record. People who have been out of the labor force for more than six months have a particularly hard time getting back in. Many never do. ...........(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.roubini.com/us-monitor/258246/the_bad_job_numbers_and_the_secret_second_stimulus

[redwitch]

1. Very sensible view of things.

Does anyone in government care or have the will to do something about it?
Signed,
Hanging by a thread in NY

[NightWatcher]

2. what kills me is that most of us dont see anything changing that will create more jobs

Everything that can be outsourced, has.
Every job that can be consolidated, has.

What is going to change that will POOF create jobs out of thin air?
Should we go work for missle manufactures and contractors that build remote control drones?

"But things are going to be getting better in (insert next fiscal quarter here)"
They are, why? what do people see in the distance?

[zipplewrath]

3. It was suppose to be "green" jobs

We were suppose to create jobs by developing technologies that would reduce green house gases, improve efficiancy, and reduce the consumption of natural resources. We haven't seen enough effort in these areas to have any impact prior to 2012.

The biggest growth is going to be in the medical fields, and in insurance. Go to nursing school, they're gonna need alot of 'em.

[Vinnie From Indy]

4. The drumbeat of Americans experiencing pain is only going to get louder

No jobs - no recovery! I believe that the official propaganda about a host of issues like the necessity for war in far off lands and the economy is rising because Wall Street bankers are doing better will become less and less effective in pacifying the masses. The pain of economic devastation for Americans will inoculate them to the deluge of lies and propaganda being pumped out of Washington and from the corrupt American media outlets.

[okieinpain]

5. in my very humble and meager opinion, they have no choice but

to do a great project. something like high speed rail, or what's the deal biden is suppose to be working on with increasing internet bandwidth or wireless connectivity. or hell he can start a war with iran.