Will union officials cave on Senate health insurance tax and House surtax on wealthy people?

[Better Believe It]

I believe President Obama and the Senate leadership will raise the insurance tax threshold a little bit. This small concession may be enough to give the union officials the face saving excuse they need to support the Senate tax on health insurance benefits. They could say: "See, we forced President Obama and the Senate to raise the tax threshold!" It will be made to appear that they won something very significant, almost historic!

By the way, the big majority of working people that will be impacted by this insurance tax will not be union members. Most are working for non-union employers.

The House surtax on wealthy people, which is supported by the labor movement, will in all liklehood be dropped during House leadership discussions (I hesitate to call them negotiations) with Obama and Senate leaders. The top union officials may be mum on this or raise mild objections while endorsing passage of the health insurance industry/big Pharma bill.

The Senate leadership is expecting the House to approve the Senate bill with relatively minor cosmetic changes and expect the House leadership to sell it.

That's a main reason why we are not having a public House/Senate conference. The House leadership is taking their marching orders from Senate "centrists" and Rahm Emanual acting on behalf of President Obama. That's more difficult to do in a House/Senate conference committee.

[IndianaGreen]

1. It is the union rank-and-file you need to worry about

They are quite independent bunch, and they do react strongly to anything adversely impacting their pocketbooks.

[Better Believe It]

2. The problem is what do you do once the horse has left the barn?

Union members in some organized manner will have to say to their leaders "Just say no!"

[IndianaGreen]

4. Union members will vote for what is in their interests

regardless of what they are told by their leaders. The 2008 elections saw many union voters that had voted GOP in the past, the Reagan Democrats, return to the Democratic column. You also saw union members that were not voting out of disillusionment, voting for the first time, or for the first time in a long time.

The gods only know the frame of mind they will be when November rolls in. If they are hopeful, they will vote Democratic. If they are pissed, they will vote against the incumbents.

[doc03]

6. As of now we are pissed n/t

[jwirr]

3. Absolutely, union members in my family who voted to President

Obama are furious even though they do not have a expensive health care plan. I think in the end they will do whatever the union suggests in 2010 and 2012 but it is a good thing that the elections are not today.

[msongs]

5. lol cave is what too many dems constituents and politicians do best. doncha wish

dems would develop a party-wide united strategy and go on the offensive with so many options available?

[highplainsdem]

7. I think you're underestimating the pressure the unions are putting on the White House.

A "small concession" and rhetoric won't be enough.

The unions have put a badly needed spotlight on one of the worst aspects of this travesty of HCR.

[Better Believe It]

8. I hope you are absolutely right and that I'm wrong. We'll know soon.

If the threshold for the insurance tax is just raised by a few thousand dollars and the House surtax on the wealthy is dropped and union officials go along, it will be obvious that it was union officials who on the receiving end of pressure.

I know how the union officials can apply the most pressure on Obama and the Senate.

All Hoffa, Stern and Trumka had to do during their meeting with President Obama today was to declare in no uncertain terms that they would urge Congress to kill the bill if the insurance tax remained and the surtax on the wealthy were taken out of the final bill.

Period. Now that's the kind of pressure the White House understands and can relate to! Why is it only the conservatives (centrists) who know how to and are applying pressure?

Going to the White House with your hat in hand and begging never got anything accomplished for labor and working people in general.

[Better Believe It]

9. Don't look good. It's starting to look more like rollover time from the latest news accounts