The Sky is Not Falling: "Democrats luck out: Unelectable candidates quit in Connecticut and Colorado

[rpannier]

First Connecticut. The result of Dodd's retirement is to turn a seat the Democrats were very likely to lose into a sure winner. Unless the new candidate, AG Richard Blumenthal is caught on video in bed with a nine-year-old, he is going to be the next senator from Connecticut. Linda McMahon can spend $50 million if she wants to, but Blumenthal is still going to be the next senator. In North Dakota, Dorgan would probably have lost to Gov. John Hoeven, so his retirement turns a probable loss into a guaranteed certain loss for the Democrats. In Colorado, Ritter is not terribly popular, so his retirement turns a probable loss into a tossup if Denver mayor John Hickenlooper runs, as is likely. So these retirements turn three probable losses into a win, a loss, and a tossup. All in all, it's been a good week for the Democrats. A more accurate headline would have been:"Democrats luck out: unelectable candidates quit in Connecticut and Colorado."

As to running for the exits, currently four Democratic senators (Burris, Dodd, Dorgan, and Kauufman) are retiring this year. But six Republican senators (Bond, Brownback, Bunning, Judd, LeMieux, and Voinovich) are calling it quits. All ten of these races except in Connecticut, North Dakota, and Kansas are tossups at this point. Two competitive races, one easy win, and one sure loss for the Democratic seats and one sure loss and five competitive races for the Republican seats is hardly a disaster for the Democrats. Of course some of their incumbents (notably Lincoln and Reid) are in trouble, but that has nothing to do with the Dodd-Dorgan-Ritter retirements.

In the House, we have 14 Republicans retiring and 10 Democrats retiring. Again, this is a mixed bag and presents both parties with dangers and opportunities. Among governors who could have run for reelection and chose not to, four are Republicans and three are Democrats. Again here, to characterize the Democrats as running hell-bent for the exits is simply not true.

link:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[madrchsod]

1. the dems in illinois do not have a good candidate...

but the republican are`t much better.illinois will be a toss-up

[rpannier]

2. Agreed

After Kirk, the herd thins out considerably.
From what my friends back in Illinois tell me, the tea baggers don't like Kirk. So they may have an Independent Tea-Bagger running on a third ticket

[madrchsod]

3. i think his rival accused him of being gay....

[AlinPA]

4. I've heard some of the radio ads against Kirk, they are grotesque.

http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/1961750,mark-kirk-gay-attack-ad-election-122809.article