Tide not Turning in Afghanistan, Despite McChrystal claims

[Mari333]

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/01/afghan-insurgency-can-sustain-itself-indefinitely-top-us-intel-officer/



http://rethinkafghanistan.com/blog/?p=1200

[Karmadillo]

1. As long as the US has a Treasury to loot, there's always time to turn that tide.

nt

[UTUSN]

2. K&R big #5 !1 n/t

[StarfarerBill]

3. Anti-Pentaganda. K&R

Thanks, Mari.

[NJmaverick]

4. You know this how????? Popular recs on an unsubstantiated proclamation

is meaningless to those that engage in critical thinking.

[bigtree]

5. jealous

k&r

[NJmaverick]

7. hell no, it only proves my point

[TheWraith]

6. So Afghanistan is a disaster, according to a website dedicated to the idea...

...that Afghanistan is a disaster? I always wonder what the hell people expect to get out of this anyway. We're out of there next year, so why all the gnashing of teeth, unless it's for the purpose of just shouting at the rain to make themselves feel better.

[NJmaverick]

8. Yep, that's pretty much it

Too many people got nasty and personal and now they have their perceived reputations and egos invested in a failed Afghanistan.

[bigtree]

the subject isn't the website

It's the report from the Senior Intelligence Officer in Afghanistan, Maj. Gen. Michael T. Flynn . . .

Flynn’s December 23rd presentation on the “State of the Insurgency: Trends, Intentions and Objectives”
http://www.scribd.com/doc/24766527/Afghan-Insurgency-COL-Thompson-10-DEC-09


The Taliban not only has the “momentum” after the most successful year in its campaign against the United States and the Kabul government. “The Afghan insurgency can sustain itself indefinitely,” according to a briefing from Major General Michael Flynn, the top U.S. intelligence officer in the country. “The Taliban retains the required partnerships to sustain support, fuel legitimacy and bolster capacity.”

And if that isn’t enough, Flynn also warns that “time is running out” for the American-lead International Security Assistance Force. “Regional instability is rapidly increasing and getting worse,” the report says.

___ Flynn’s December 23rd presentation on the “State of the Insurgency: Trends, Intentions and Objectives” may be the gloomiest public assessment of the war yet. The “loosely organized” Taliban is “growing more cohesive” and “increasingly effective.” The insurgents now have their own “governors” installed in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. And the “strength and ability of that shadow governance increasing,” according to the presentation. The Taliban’s “organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding.”


___ The presentation also cast doubt on some of the war’s stated central aims. The Obama administration has repeatedly said that additional troops are necessary to prevent a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan — which would then allow Al Qaeda the re-establigh its safe haven there. According to interviews with detainees, however, the insurgents “view Al Qaeda as a handicap – a view that is increasingly prevalent.” The Taliban feel they have to “manage the relationship with AQ to avoid alienating Afghan population, but encourage support from the global jihad network.”

Flynn’s presentation also, indirectly, warns that one of the central U.S. tactics in Pakistan — drone strikes against suspected militants — could backfire. “violations of Pakistan sovereignty may contribute to radicalizing the population and diminishes credibility of the GoP (Government of Pakistan).” Such violations “demonstrate an inability of the government; perception they cannot protect their own; exacerbates anti-western sentiment.”


read more: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/01/afghan-insurgency-can-sustain-itself-indefinitely-top-us-intel-officer

[Mari333]

11. thanks I also added onto that

I remember the same propaganda during Vietnam. same old shit.
this is Vietnam redux.

[NJmaverick]

23. Yes RETHINKAFGHANISTAN.com is your one stop place for

all your anti Afghanistan stabilization propaganda.

[bigtree]

33. I'll take their dedicated anti-occupation efforts any day

. . . against the reckless cheerleading of warmongers.

[NJmaverick]

36. That's your problem you see the facts as having sides

you have totally abandoned any pretext of critical thought or an open mindedness to ALL the facts.

[bigtree]

39. you've spent quite a bit of time here dismissing the facts

. . . presented in Gen. Flynn's intelligence report. War promotion . . . inspiring.

[tekisui]

42. The graph and info is from the ISAF.

[Ignis]

48. They publish Wired magazine purely to bash the Afghan War? (nt)

[DCBob]

9. U.S. general: U.S. forces have defeated the Taliban in the 'heartland'

U.S. general: Taliban beaten in Helmand province

Marine Maj. Gen. Richard Mills said in an interview with USA TODAY that U.S. forces have defeated the Taliban in the 'heartland'.
By Jim Michaels, USA TODAY

CAMP PENDLETON, Calif. — U.S. forces have driven the Taliban from most towns and villages in the strategic Helmand province of Afghanistan, leaving incoming troops with the mission of holding key areas and rebuilding the economy, Marine commanders say. "They've taken on the Taliban, the insurgency, right in the heartland and they've defeated them," said Marine Maj. Gen. Richard Mills in an interview with USA TODAY.

more: http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2010-01-11-Helmand-Taliban_N.htm

[robdogbucky]

12. And this just a couple of days ago

Afghans losing hope after 8 years of war

After 8 years of war, international intervention, many Afghans losing hope

TODD PITMAN
AP News

Jan 09, 2010 12:19 EST

"...In Kabul, even a traffic jam can provoke a comment on this Islamic nation's dismal state, which most people here believe is at its bleakest since the U.S. invaded to topple the Taliban in 2001. It's a striking sentiment when you consider it comes after eight years of international intervention, $60 billion in foreign aid and the lives of thousands of foreign troops and Afghan civilians.

The Obama administration is hoping to reverse that trend as an additional 30,000 American and 7,000 NATO troops pour into the conflict in coming months. But "the more soldiers they send here, the worse it gets," said 19-year-old carpet seller Hamid Hashimi.

In the year after the Taliban fell, international forces numbered a modest 12,000 or so. Today that figure has swollen to well over 100,000 and will approach 140,000 with the latest troop commitments. There are also 100,000 Defense Department contractors supporting the military effort, according to U.S. lawmakers.

The insurgency has mushroomed in equal measure..."

http://wire.antiwar.com/2010/01/09/afghans-losing-hope-after-8-years-of-war/



Just my dos centavos


robdogbucky

[DCBob]

13. You posted an article with comments from a "19-year-old carpet seller" and a AP journalist...

Not exactly experts on the overall status of the Afghan war.

[NJmaverick]

14. Don't forget there was just a survey that showed that the Afghans want the US to stay

and they have an optimstic outlook. This thread is nothing but pure propaganda that are opposed to any attempts as stabilizing the Country.

[bigtree]

16. so the Afghans (the 1500 who were polled) are optimistic about a worsening situation

. . . another pollyanish defense of the indefensible from the maverick.

[NJmaverick]

18. Sorry if your ego can't accept that you were wrong

no amount of self serving and dishonest claims of "pollyanish defense" will really help your situation.

[bigtree]

28. you can't credibly use that poll to justify every aspect of the occupation

That poll doesn't measure anything more significant than the mood of the Afghans. Whether that assumed mood among Afghans will translate into progress toward any of the president's primary justifications for escalating the occupation and continuing isn't indicated in that poll at all. The rosy assessment of the occupation that you and McChrystal are offering isn't evident in anything more substantive than the rhetoric you've both provided. That pollyanish viewpoint is certainly not supported by this report from the U.S. Senior Intelligence Officer on the ground in Afghanistan.

[NJmaverick]

31. Everytime I post highly credibile material you dismiss it out of hand

because it doesn't fit your agenda. Go about your name calling though. Whatever it takes to keep that ego inflated.

[bigtree]

38. your poll is irrelevant to the point of the op

. . . it's just your latest war-promoting toy

[Quezacoatl]

44. How do they poll Afghans?

I was wondering how do they poll Afghans? Do they just poll people in Kabul and NATO controlled areas? Do they poll members of the Taliban?


I don't see how it's possible to do a scientific poll representing all Afghans in all regions of the country?

[DCBob]

49. Like any other nationwide poll... they do random samples across the country..

From the WP article about the poll...

"The poll of a national random sample of 1,534 Afghan adults was conducted from Dec. 11 to Dec. 23 by ABC News, the BBC and ARD German TV, their fifth since 2005. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Field work was done by the Afghan Center for Socio-Economic and Opinion Research in Kabul, a subsidiary of D3 Systems Inc. in Vienna, Va.

After steep declines in recent years, nearly seven in 10 Afghans also think their nation is headed in the right direction. That's up 30 percent since January 2009. The number of Afghans who expect their lives will be better a year from now also has jumped 20 percentage points from a year ago - to a new high of 71 percent, the poll said."


It is important to note this is the fifth poll since 2005 and the approval numbers have increased significantly recently.

[EFerrari]

15. I can't remember the last time I read any Afghan say

that they were happy to have American soldiers on their soil.

ETA: With the exception of the puppets in the Karzai government, I suppose.

[DCBob]

17. Then you missed this...

Poll: 7 in 10 Afghans support US forces

By DEB RIECHMANN
The Associated Press
Monday, January 11, 2010; 7:06 AM

KABUL -- Nearly seven in 10 Afghans support the presence of U.S. forces in their country, and 61 percent favor the military buildup of 37,000 U.S. and NATO reinforcements now deploying, according to a poll released Monday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/11/AR2010011100852.html

[NJmaverick]

21. It appears some people limit what they read

[DCBob]

26. Or their bias impedes their comprehension..

I am out of here. Keep up the good work! Ciao.

[robdogbucky]

41. Ah, reposting

Bertie's turd from Saturday.

You do well snarky. Didja notice how well that went over here?

How many threads with absolutely 0 recs does he have now?

Are you guys lost. Seriously

Have any original thoughts lately?


Just my dos centavos

robdogbucky

[DCBob]

50. Numbers of "recs" don't signify "truth"..

That poll looks entirely legit to me. There is no reason to doubt it. I have worked in survey science, in fact for ORC, for several years back in the late 90's.

[EFerrari]

47. No, I didn't miss that poll yesterday. Read the methodology.

I don't buy it for a minute; it's Pentagon propaganda. I haven't seen or heard or read an Afghan say they were happy to have US soldiers on their soil.

[NJmaverick]

20. That's because you seem to limit your reading

Sitting on the bare floor of his office with Schaffer, Lt. Col. Abdul Qader, the weary-looking police commander of Substation 7, said six of his officers recently left without permission, leaving him with about half of the 30 or so officers he is supposed to have at his station.

Poorly armed and stationed at lightly defended checkpoints, officers are frequent targets of Taliban attacks. Qader welcomes the American embed program, but worries it won’t be enough.

“I would be very happy if President Obama sent 500,000 troops.” Qader said when asked what he thought of the planned surge of coalition troops.

http://www.stripes.com/article.asp?section=104&article=67182

[robdogbucky]

19. Oh, you must have not read it then...

Because it also quotes two lawmakers and a popular TV host in Afghanistan:

Your transparent efforts to smear any facts that contradict your propaganda message are truly pathetic and on display here on DU for all to witness. Please keep it up, as you are as valuable to the growing anti-war sentiment in the US as Palinistas and Teabaggers are to the Democratic party.

I understand this would not fit in with you and Bertie's pro-war, pro-death propaganda but nonetheless here they are:


"...In those days people had hope, but unfortunately everything has turned upside down since then," said Hanif Hangam, who stars in an Afghan comedy TV show called Alarm Bell. "People expected things to go forward, but we've just been sliding back..."

"...It's a disaster," said Ramazan Bashardost, a lawmaker who came in a distant third in the country's botched August election, which was marred by fraud so widespread a third of Karzai's ballots were thrown out. "The situation is getting worse every day for ordinary Afghans..."

...Indeed, the news today is the same as it was eight years previous, there is just more of it: Car bombs and rockets rock Kabul. Civilians die accidentally in U.S. air strikes. Afghan security forces are in dire need of training. The opium trade is booming...

"...We've built a lot of buildings," lawmaker Shukria Barakzai said with a sigh at a recent government ceremony commemorating the deaths of thousands of Afghan police and soldiers. "But we've lost a lot of hope..."


After 8 years of war, international intervention, many Afghans losing hope

TODD PITMAN
AP News

Jan 09, 2010 12:19 EST

http://wire.antiwar.com/2010/01/09/afghans-losing-hope-after-8-years-of-war/



More centavos

robdogbucky

[NJmaverick]

22. You guys need to read more than "ANTIWAR.COM" as you have an

extremely distorted view of the situation in Afghanistan.

[DCBob]

24. Are you clueless or just pretending? You are now quoting "a TV comedy show star"??

Please quit wasting board space.

[robdogbucky]

27. This is a cross-section of Afghan society

Why do you choose to ignore the lawmakers quoted, or is it just because you and Bertie wanna throw stones?

You also neglect that this is an AP story, which was then reposted on Anti-War.

Please explain, oh wise ones, what is wrong with anything Anti-War?

In the meantime, robdogbucky sits back and waits to read latest snark avoiding the real issues, from those preferring to smear and run.

What is wrong with Anti-War?

you guys appear to be anti-truth and anti-fact, using only government branded propaganda releases from generals paid to promote war. I prefer to hear from the real folks, you know, the ones getting killed, not doing the killing?


Talked to anyone recently returned from the theater of occupation?



rdb

[NJmaverick]

30. What was the true cross section is the survey who's results you don't like

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

25. Right. And, General Custer had those Injuns on the run.

And, General Westmoreland wiped out the NVA and VC. And, Bush proclaimed "Mission Accomplished".

[NJmaverick]

29. REALY!?!?!?

Noun 1. Injun - (slang) offensive term for Native Americans

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

34. Oh, dear, Oh, dear. Do you faint often?

[NJmaverick]

35. You must have gone to the Mike Steele school of cultural sensitivity.

:puke:

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

37. You must have gone to the Aunt Pitty-Pat school of having the vapors.

Main Entry: con·text
Pronunciation: \ˈkän-ˌtekst\
Function: noun
Etymology: Middle English, weaving together of words, from Latin contextus connection of words, coherence, from contexere to weave together, from com- + texere to weave — more at technical
Date: circa 1568

1 : the parts of a discourse that surround a word or passage and can throw light on its meaning

[Mari333]

10. Afghan Insurgence can sustain itself indefinetely

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2010/01/afghan-insurgency-can-sustain-itself-indefinitely-top-us-intel-officer/

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

32. But, but, the Pentagon says they're winning. That's why they want more troops and money.

Presumably so they can hold a victory parade in Kabul and be showered with flowers. Like they did in Saigon in 1974...oh, wait.

[robdogbucky]

40. And our kids pay the price

So Bertie and friend can continue to smear democrats at this site and catapult the pentagon's propaganda.


Jan 6: US forces in Afghanistan ‘should expect up to 500 casualties a month’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/Afghanistan...

"US forces in Afghanistan should brace themselves for up to 500 casualties a month this year, a senior retired American general has warned.

The forecast comes from General Barry McCaffrey, formerly the most decorated general in the US Army, who has conducted field assessments of the US military performance in Afghanistan at the request of the US military since 2003.

His assessment projects that US forces can expect to lose between 300 and 500 soldiers a month, either killed or wounded, this year, rising to a peak during the summer months. US military casualties during 2009 were 305 killed and 2,102 injured up to December 20.

More than half of those injured have not been able to return to service.
Casualties in Afghanistan tend to peak during the summer “fighting season..."


Go ahead Bertie, attack UKTimesonline, or me, or some far-flung issue pulled out of your ass to promote your war-mongering.

Admit it, you hate our kids in the military, you hate ordinary Afghan citizens, you hate freedom, you hate freedom of expression and honest discussion, preferring to promote war and death.



rdb

[tekisui]

43. Turning corners, tide turning. Same old shit.

[thereismore]

45. What's a kinetic event? nt

[thereismore]

46. Looks like attacks come in seasonal waves (Summer), and they keep INCREASING

in amplitude. Not a good trend. Right now tide is turning but it will come again stronger than last time.