AFL-CIO: Immigration Reform Would Boost Economy

[pampango]

http://blog.aflcio.org/2010/01/11/report-immigration-reform-would-boost-economy/

"A new report shows that comprehensive immigration reform would help American workers and the U.S. economy. Reform that offers a path to citizenship for currently unauthorized workers and enforces workers’ rights would raise the “wage floor” for the entire U.S. economy and increase the total gross domestic product (GDP) by at least $1.5 trillion over the next decade, the report says."

"“Raising the Floor for American Workers,” by the Center for American Progress and the Immigration Policy Center, says finding a pathway to citizenship for the millions of undocumented workers is a much better alternative in this economic crisis than expanding guest worker programs or mass deportation.

The temporary worker program only generates an annual increase of 0.44 percent in the nation’s GDP or $792 billion over 10 years. It also leads to declining wages for newly legalized immigrant workers, the report says.

Mass deportation would reduce U.S. GDP by 1.46 percent annually or $2.6 trillion, not including the actual cost of deportation, the report adds. Wages would rise for less-skilled native-born workers, while wages for higher-skilled natives would drop. The deportations would lead to widespread job loss as well."

[anonymous171]

1. How would deportations lead to job loss?

Serious question.

[pampango]

2. The loss of the buying power of the "recently deported" would result in job losses in companies

that sold goods and services to them.

That is true any time that a large group of workers loses their jobs (due to recession, deportation, Katrina's effect on New Orleans, etc.). The businesses that sold to the now-unemployed have to cut back and often lay off some of their own employees, which perpetuates the cycle. It's why recessions are hard to turn around unless the government steps in with "stimulus" to turn the downward spiral into an upward spiral.

In the case of this study's take on the cost of deportation in terms of job losses, this initial job loss in businesses that sold to the deported would be, at least partially, made up by new buying power from Americans who took some of those jobs. The study's conclusion, though, was that this partial offset would not prevent a net loss in jobs.