Amazingly prescient observations about the coming crisis by Strauss and Howe in 1997.

[Writer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXcDiGpVtbc&feature=related

It is incredible to me how much insight - and how unbelievably accurate - both men were about the 2000's. It downloads very slowly but it is more than worth the wait.

[Mojambo]

1. Are those the guys that wrote the Fourth Turning?

I think that's what it's called. Hartmann talks about that book a lot.

Always wanted to read it.

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Yep, and since I have been working through it

I clicked.

Highly recommended by the way

[Odin2005]

5. The book is a very good mix of history and sociology

I disagree with them on a few things (I think they botched the generational time line of the Civil War cycle and they misunderstood the social attitudes of us Millennial because they are a bit socially conservative and are Boomers), but otherwise it is a very excellent book.

[Odin2005]

3. I have their book and there is a message board for their ideas.

http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/index.php

I post there as "Odin". :hi:

Sadly, Mr. Strauss died of cancer last year before he got to see Obama elected.

[Writer]

4. Obama may likely be that "warrior prince" (if I have that right) that they were conceiving.

[Odin2005]

6. He may be fitting in what they call the "grey champion" role.

Along with Al Gore and Howard Dean. Oddly he, just like FDR, is right on the edge of a "Prophet" generation and a "Nomad" generation and so far has been acting very similar to FDR in his first year, this debacle of a healthcare reform bill reminds me of that corporatist travesty the National Recovery Act.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

10. Pretty interesting discussions on that board and I liked what you had to say.

[Odin2005]

13. Thanks!

[JuniperLea]

7. Pretty freaky accurate...

I see a new book in my future... and I'm about to click on Odin's link for the website.

Great OP! K&R!

[bvar22]

8. Kicking.....

Will comment later.

[SpiralHawk]

9. Interesting stuff...

was reading recently also about the
"Millennial Agrarians"

http://thecalloftheland.wordpress.com/

[Kablooie]

11. They say the party that's in power when the crisis hits will be out of power for a generation.

The crisis hasn't hit yet but it's likely to during Obama's presidency, according to their timeline.

I don't think the current recession is the crisis. It may be the start of it but the current mood fits their 'unravelling' phase pretty well.


Hmmm.

[SheilaT]

15. I would suggest that the

crisis started with September 11, 2001.

Yes, Bush did get re-elected, but the election of 2008 was a huge change, and it is still far too early to guess what will happen in 2010, let alone 2012.

[conspirator]

12. I have the same Feeling as Strauss. America will no longer be a nation by 2025 nt

[704wipes]

14. it's annoying to try to watch

that feed is so jerky, at least for me right now.
Just got past the point where they claim baby-boomers mature to 'priest-warriors' who will take the civ to the next great endeavor.

[SheilaT]

16. I have been telling people

about their first book "Generations" ever since I read it in about 1992. It has profoundly altered my perception of history and how people behave. I frequently interpret events in the light of the generational location of those involved.

[Odin2005]

17. Generations is a great book, though dated.

I was amused that it was praised both by Gore and Gingrich.

[SheilaT]

18. Considering that it's nearly twenty

years old, it's held up remarkably well. Certainly the insights it offers by its analysis of the whole generational archetypes and the orderly changeover of them is incredibly useful.