Martha Coakley will win on Tuesday.

[WilliamPitt]

Bank it.

[cali]

1. I am not as sanguine. hope you're right.

[Gman2]

2. If thats the case, we wont know that day. It's close!

[tridim]

3. "Bank it" is probably the wrong qualifier, but I agree she will win.

[onehandle]

4. From your keyboard to God's inbox. nt

[kentuck]

5. Why do you say that?

Is that just a hunch? Most of recent polls show her falling further behind.

[WilliamPitt]

14. See post 12

Most of those polls are crap. Watch the Globe's numbers.

[villager]

6. Always good seeing a Republican lose. What's the blanket statement based on, Will?

for us out-of-staters...

[WilliamPitt]

12. Few things

1. Dems outnumber Repubs 3-1 in MA.

2. Brown's best hope was low turnout. Thanks to all the national attention, they're expecting turnout to be at or around 70%. That's absurdly high for an off-year election.

[cali]

15. and independents outnumber dems. indies are breaking by a greater

than 2 to 1 margin for brown. rothenburg has just predicted a comfortable win for brown. hope he's wrong and you're right, but.....

[ChiciB1]

17. But Have You Taken Into Account That There Are More Independents Than

Democrats in Ma? I KNOW it's your state, but the demographics from MSNBC this AM says it depends on Indy's who are upset with Obama.

What's the skinny on the Indy's?

[burning rain]

24. Coded communique from ACORN high command.

:D

[DCBob]

7. I think so too but it will be close... too close..

but I like your confidence! :fistbump:

[Cha]

52. Me too..

So much better than doom & gloom. We'll find out soon enough:fistbump:

[Greybnk48]

8. Agreed.

[meegbear]

9. THANK YOU!

A positive post for a change!

[RBInMaine]

10. It is ALL GOTV. If the Dems comeout big, we win. If not, the asshat gets it. Plain and simple.

[jpak]

13. Yup - and clean-up from today's storm will be a problem to turnout tomorrow

:(

[struggle4progress]

40. bingo

[Orrex]

11. If she doesn't, then I can't wait to start blaming Massachusetts for everything.

They're the reason my hub bearing went bad, for instance.

[dana_b]

from your lips.... n/t

[Lex]

20. yes

that what I immediately thought too

[librechik]

16. thx for the "on the ground" report, Will!N/t

[TayTay]

18. I think you are right

But it so depends on the "pull" that is done in the areas inside Rt 128. (Well, if 128 and 495 can determine snow fall amounts, they can determine election results.)

Out here in the wilderness areas of MA, beyond 495, I think there will be a heavy vote for Brown. This area tends to vote for Repubs in big elections anyway. (Check the http://riesling.caliper.com/maptitude/massstatsnetversion/%28S%28jgmtai55llwdzq55iuxn0f3y%29%29/map.aspx?Redirected=True">MASSstats map for the 2002 election and check out Galvin's Secretary of http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/">State website to see where MA votes "red.")

http://www.massinc.org/index.php?id=610">This article is a very good background read on Massachusetts and what it's like here. (Read it with the knowledge that these regions are not hard and fast and bleed into each other.) We are not and never were a completely liberal state. We have and have always had Republican regions. (The town of Boxford Ma hasn't voted Dem in a big race in decades, if not a century, for instance.)

[leftygolfer]

19. I believe

I have no dog in the fight in terms of Massachusetts - but the bigger fight means everything to me.

[TayTay]

21. There is reason to believe

I still think that women are being undercounted as a motivating force in this election. More women than men tend to vote in MA and there is a still a strong motivation among women to go out and vote for Marther.

[Tailormyst]

22. I hope you are right Will

I am not so confident.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

23. Speaking of banking, I have been phone banking from the great BLUE state of Maryland

throughout the weekend and all morning. (I needed a break.) Waking up to the HuffingtonPost news that Brown is ahead is earth shattering to me. Why? Because the phone banking didn't go that badly. I had more Coakley supporters, some Brown supporters, some undecideds (I don't understand that!). But by and large, the responses were largely in favor of Coakley. That's why it seems odd that the M$M is cheerleading for Brown. Doesn't seem to comport with my experience.

[Gman]

25. I want to believe so.

It's unimaginable that MA would elect a republic US Senator.

[peace frog]

26. ...in Teddy's seat, no less

Unfathomable.

[SoCalDem]

42. True, but LOTS of people are swayed by a "pretty face"

and after decades of having an aging man (no matter how good for them he was). many people do look beyond their own core beliefs and want a "fresh face"..

We know he's nothing but a good-looking creep, but he's clever, and has a smooth way of talking to people, and has nothing to lose...so he might actually win:(

Martha may be great, but she looks school-marm-ish, and she had an heir-apparent style to her.. People don't like that.

Politics is so much like high school dating.. We all know that the ones with the great personality ..the smart ones.. are the best people for us, bu how many of us keep getting tangled up with the great looking ones who break our hearts over and over and over?:(

They don't make movies about the cute girl fawning all over the president of the photography club...or about the football team captain scheming to get a date with that girl in chemistry class..

We have a football captain/head cheerleader mentality.. It sucks but it's true.

[Lex]

49. Sadly this is so true

"Politics is so much like high school dating."

Yes, I'm afraid so.

[AzDar]

27. If it's a clean election, she will.

Which means, unfortunately, that 'Health Care Reform' will most likely pass.

[ElmoBlatz]

28. Probably

But why is this even remotely close?

[Doctor_J]

29. intrade has it 63-36 for the nude model

they're pretty accurate.

[Soylent Brice]

30. i certainly hope you're right. if not, it'll be a HUGE black eye for the whole party.

i see dire consequences in the event of a loss.

[Carni]

31. As well as a bunch of obnoxious crowing by the GOP

I will not be watching any pundits for several weeks if she doesn't win, because the gloat factor will be intolerable!

[Terra Alta]

32. yes she will.

gotta focus on the positive... there has been too much negative on DU lately! I simply can't believe the same state that gave us JFK and Ted Kennedy will put someone like Brown in the Senate.

[Shrek]

33. If you're serious about "banking" it

Then you should head over to Intrade. The Coakley contract will pay off at around 2-to-1 if you're right.

http://www.intrade.com

[lurknomore]

34. What's your record on predictions?

Did you predict the NJ loss? (just wondering)

Keep hope alive !!!

[lapislzi]

35. I hope and believe you're right, but...

the rest of the country's progressives are seriously rattled by a horse race that should have been a slam dunk...and not necessarily in the good way. I hope we learn some hard lessons from this.

[MineralMan]

36. I agree, but only if the turnout of Dems is good, so I'm not

willing to bet the bank on it yet. The GOTV effort must continue through tomorrow.

[blaze]

37. Who's counting the votes?

Just curious.

[rox63]

38. I think you're right, but it may be a squeakah...

[WilliamPitt]

39. 60-40

But I'm looking to move up.

[TayTay]

41. I doubt that

I think a replica of the 96 result might happen with a 5-7% win for Martha

[davsand]

43. Will, have you been on the ground there or talked to anyone who is?

I've always found that the folks ON the ground usually have a pretty good feel for this stuff. Yes, there IS the problem with excess optimism, but I know you (and your family history!) well enough to know you have been in this situation a few times before. You can interpret the reports better than most...

IS that 60-40 margin optimism or something else? I am seriously hoping it is based in some solid polling or equally valid information that most of us have not seen yet.



Laura

[WilliamPitt]

47. I'm in downtown Boston

and have been swimming in this race long before 90% of the DU punditry even knew it was happening. I'm actually getting a kick out of all the high-flown opinionating going on around here, because maybe 1% of the opinions evince any knowledge whatsoever about on-the-ground Massachusetts politics. This race is turning on a lot of MA factors unique to the state. It's not a grand statement on anything other than the vagaries of local politics.

The 60-40 thing was an answer to the question about how good I am at predictions. I'm right more often than wrong, but am wrong enough to make me a shaky bet. :)

[spanone]

44. i'm with you will. the media has swiftboated us again

[graywarrior]

45. I believe you.

[AlinPA]

46. I'm concerned that weather may hurt turnout and that the republican zeal may be greater

than the Democrats'.

[ProudToBeBlueInRhody]

48. Will, I really, really want to believe you

That's all I can say.

[Nye Bevan]

50. I hope you're right, but

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x1179819

[Motown_Johnny]

51. you trust banks?

[Bleacher Creature]

53. If you're right, I will bow down to you and be your slave.

Even though you are a Red Sox fan . . .

[arthritisR_US]

54. oh I like your thinking! :-) n/t

[CoffinEd]

55. I hope so

I did my part earlier today. I filled in the oval for Coakley (although Capuano was my man in the primaries) and we'll see what happens.

[harkadog]

56. Hope people didn't bank too much.

Of course I'm just one of the DUers outside of MA who "doesn't know anything about MA politics". OK.

[Lex]

57. ouch

[nomaco-10]

58. So says you.....

You've never taken on the rightwing element, EVER around here.


We'll all sink to our knees and pray Martha Coakley wins, to spite your simplified all knowing, cheerleading efforts.


I'm not your biggest fan, and never have been, but I've had years to figure all that shit out.

[Better Believe It]

59. K & R

[wpelb]

60. So much for banking on it

It looks like most of the polls were pretty close to accurate. Personally, I thought it would be closer, with the outcome in doubt for several days, perhaps weeks, with Florida 2000-style recounts.

[deaniac21]

61. May 12! May 12!