What's the "bellwether" towns that Tweety is saying will go to Brown in double digits?

[CTyankee]

I know what a bellwether is but he started talking about this on MJ today as if to say that these figures are dispositive of the entire election.

As compared to what? These numbers, without more stats comparing other towns and cities, seem meaningless to me...

I'm no statistician but alluva sudden we have the "stats" thrown at us out of nowhere and in a void. I almost think it was meant to discourage voters elsewhere in the state from bothering to vote tomorrow...sure seems that way to me.

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. I'm guessing the suburbs between 495 and 128....

...everything else is pretty predictable, or too thinly populated -- interior Cape Ann, the Berkshires, etc -- to be dispositive.

[CTyankee]

4. Well, I meant a comparison to all of the towns and cities, not saying any other

towns per se are dispositive.

I guess I just don't get the mathmatical issue here. I'll need some help...

[Davis_X_Machina]

5. It's an argument a fortiori...

if you don't win in towns where you are likely to win, then you're not going to win where you're no better than even. There's enough polling and registration data, enough data from '06 and '08 and the primary, to make educated guesses what towns those are.

[CTyankee]

6. What is the margin of error with this system?

[dkf]

2. What discourages some lights fires under others.

Urgency is coakleys friend.

[malaise]

3. For the record Tweety was wrong all of 2008 with regard

the the Democratic primaries. The media's new role is to force politicians to buy ads for their stations. They need a circus. Tweety is only good for discussions on Cheneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeey - he is clueless re elections.