Why do some polls claim 20%+ of Democrats are voting Republican in Massachusetts?

[PM Martin]

Why has this occured?

[Recursion]

1. Because Brown's campaign was very good and Coakley's was awful

I've had two knocks on my door for Brown and none for Coakley, and I'm a registered Democrat who canvassed for Obama and for Khazei in the primary.

[dkf]

2. They are afraid of the Cadillac tax.

That is my guess

[iceman66]

3. Setting us up for a stolen election maybe?

I just don't get it.

It's not like Coakley is such an awful candidate, nor is Brown particularly impressive.

[FreakinDJ]

13. DING DING DING - We have a Winner Folks

Every time and I mean EVERY TIME the polls go all over the place and stop making sense there is Election Fraud

[iceman66]

17. I think we are witnessing a field test of what I would call 'Diebold 2.0'

Just as the 2002 midterms were sort of a practice run for the 2004 election.

I expect the fraud this time to be much more sophisticated, and better concealed. I notice they even have polls predicting the desired outcome so there will be no 'surprise' upset like in GA in '02.

It will be interesting to see the specific numbers that get reported tomorrow.

[timeforpeace]

22. If we win, well that's The Way It Should Be. When they win, it's cheating. It's always been thus.

[Tim01]

28. Exactly what I was thinking. nt

[iceman66]

30. Of course Republicans would never, never cheat.

Wouldn't be 'Christian', right?

[BeFree]

36. Except...

Awww, never mind... if you wanted to know the truth, I wouldn't have to say a damn thing.

Go Diebold!! Corporation that counts our votes!! Lets repeat that, shall we.


The Corporation that counts our votes!!
Go Diebold!!

[laughingliberal]

34. Just posted downthread, I'm getting that sinking....

Gore just got moved back to the too close to call column feeling again.

[ElmoBlatz]

47. Then what happened in the 2008 election?

Did Diebold decide to temporarily table their plan to take over the world?

[FreakinDJ]

56. Diebold Election Fraud only works in a close margin

2008 was a Rout

[blm]

60. Bush didn't care about McCain winning. Jeb will be tapped as the 'savior' of the party

for 2012 or 2016.

[leftinportland]

59. Apparently the folks in Mass can't count!

Listen ting to Brad of BradBlog last night there are no rules in place to audit any vote count by a hand count of just a small percentage of the ballots. There is one race on the ballot with three candidates and the state has paid Diebold and their consultants how much $ to set up the fraud voting machines to scan the ballots. For crying out loud the votes can be counted as they precincts pack the ballots after the polls close. What is most upsetting is that there are so few people discussing anymore how the corporate sector has taken over counting our votes!

[pnwmom]

14. That's what I'm thinking. n/t

[TheCowsCameHome]

4. Not sure, but I can tell you there are some very ticked-off (D) voters in this state

Not to mean that they should go to the dark side, but who knows why people do what they do sometimes........

[closeupready]

24. Can you explain why they are ticked-off?

Thanks.

[TheCowsCameHome]

58. A backlash from the arrogance displayed in state politics, for one thing

There is hardly a month that goes by where some politician doesn't pull some bonehead stunt that embarasses the entire party.

Avery few examples:

Gov. Patrick comes in and the first thing he wants is a Cadillac for a state car. Fords just don't cut it anymore, I guess. From this day forward, he is known as "Coupe DeVal"

State senator with drunk driving history rear ends a minivan, sends children to the hospital, and runs away from the scene, then makes no effort to resign his position. State senate stands around and does nothing to remove him. Quits after he gets sentenced to a year in jail.

State senator gets caught on camera stuffing bribe cash into her bra and thinks she's done nothing wrong.

Gov. Patrick wants to take $9 million in stimulus funds to build a footbridge for Patriots owner Robert Kraft's private development of commercial property. Kraft is one of the wealthiest men in America. Let him pay for it himself.


The list is endless. It just wears the voters down after a while..........

[iceman66]

35. Ticked off (D) voters would simply stay home,

like they did in the recent gubernatorial election in VA.

They would not be lining up behind a candidate who is the embodiment of everything the Democratic party has fought AGAINST for the last 40 years!

[Blue-Jay]

5. Chill out.

I'm of the opinion that the current polls in Mass are not indicative of the actual will of the people of that state. Of course I could be wrong, but I doubt it.

Check back with me in 24 hours.

I'm guess a 6-11% win for Coakley.

[PM Martin]

7. Even though the trend is slowly moving against Coakley?

[wisteria]

27. I love your optimism. Go Coakley! n/t

[dflprincess]

6. I think someone's messing with the pollsters

I can understand a Democrat being so fed up they stay home but I find it hard to believe someone who truly thinks of themself as a Democrat would vote for Brown.

[Skink]

12. The danger is dems staying home.

If they don't have early voing in Massachusetts then they are not a very progressive state.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Cause polls mean something, or not......

Poll: 9-point lead for Obama on eve of N.H. primary

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/07/nh.poll/index.html




Just sayin'! :shrug:

[wisteria]

31. Yeah, polls never get it wrong.

:eyes:

[Edwin Edwards Fan]

9. Dont lose hope

I still think Coakley will pull this out

[wisteria]

32. Hope is a great thing. Go Coakley!! n/t

[Codeine]

10. The Purity Pricks.

The gang who couldn't take "Yes" for an answer. The folks who could have played reality politics for an incremental win but chose to embrace utopian politics for a Noble Loss.

[MadHound]

11. Umm, perhaps because that number of Dems are indeed voting for Brown

:shrug:

After all, Gore pissed off 400,000 self described liberals and 200,000 registered Dems in Florida over his support of offshore drilling to the point where they voted for Bush in '00.

Pissed off people will do some interesting things:shrug:

[griffi94]

15. ive thought about that as well

and the fact that not every dem is a yellow dog. i was working on a construction project this summer and my boss was a registered democrat who fairly frequently voted gop. he voted against reagan for clinton and voted for bush once and kerry once and voted for mccain.

[wisteria]

33. Not in Massachusetts. n/t

[MadHound]

40. Why, just because you say so?

Here's sand, insert head, keep it there.

Why do you find this so hard to believe? This sort of thing has happened time and again throughout our political history, and Massachusetts isn't some sort of sacred Democratic ground where nothing bad happens. People get pissed, and they will make their anger known one way or the other.

[Kaleva]

16. Go too far left and lots of Dems vote Republican.

[clear eye]

21. Substantiate that "piece of wisdom" please. n/t

[closeupready]

25. That makes about as much sense as saying run a woman for president and Hindus vote Green.

But hey, as long as it makes sense to you, who cares, right?

[Kaleva]

50. Reagan Democrats

The only way Reagan was able to smoke Mondale in the 1984 election was because many Democrats voted for Reagan. An estimated 300,00 registered Democrats in Florida voted for Bush in the 2000 election. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 margin in West Virginia but Bush easily won that state in 2000 and 2004. Democrats Stupak, Granholm, Levin, and Stabenow have won in my home district in recent elections but Bush won it in 2000 and 2004 while McCain split the vote here 50/50 with Obama.

[closeupready]

57. Al Gore was hardly 'far left' when he was running against Bush. In fact,

you could argue that he was running as a more conservative version of Bill Clinton. On your other points, that may be, but how much of the Republican victory was because Dems just stayed home rather than turn out to vote?

In other words, do you have exit poll data showing that Dems who indicated they voted for the Republican (in the races you cite) were motivated by perceptions that Dems had gone 'too far left'? If not, it seems like you are being a little presumptuous.

[Kaleva]

62. Exit poll data.

Also, the Republicans worked hard in painting Gore and later, Kerry as out of touch liberals. I never saw one single Repub ad that portrayed Gore and Kerry as moderate centrists.

[City of Mills]

51. Like Ted Kennedy?

I don't think so.

[Kaleva]

53. Ted lost his presidential primary bid against Carter.

[City of Mills]

61. But he won the primary in Massachusetts

:headbang:

[Kaleva]

63. And Ted would have smoked Brown in any given election...

even if he had voted for the Senate health care bill.

[Irish_shark]

18. 11% of Democrats voted for McCain in MA (CNN exit poll)

And since Presidential elections draw a higher percentage of Democrats than special elections, I don't see the 20% number as far-fetched.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#MAP00p1

[dflprincess]

23. When Bush was still president there were a couple times I got polled

and after picking the Democrat in every race I'd pick "leans Republican" for my party preference - just to mess with them and to get the chance to take a swipe at President Zippy.

If I lived in Massachusetts, I'd be telling pollsters that I was a Democrat but staying home tomorrow because I'm fed up with the performance of the Congress and the administration - just to do my part to try and make the Democrats sweat. But I would go out tomorrow and vote for Coakley.

[highplainsdem]

19. You sure they're saying 20% of Dems? I'd read about 20% who voted for Obama - independents

most likely - had said they were going to vote for Brown. But I didn't look at the details of that poll, just saw that mentioned while skimming news articles this morning.

Just googled some keywords and found a link to Public Policy Polling's blog, which mentions that poll:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/01/obama-and-massachusetts-race.html

Scott Brown is winning 20% of the vote from people who voted for Barack Obama last year, but these are not people who think he's doing a great job and just think Coakley is a duddy candidate. For the most part it's people who voted for Obama and aren't happy with how he's performed in office. Among the Obama/Brown voters just 22% approve of the President's work and only 13% support his health care plan.

Has anyone seen the internals of that PPP poll, whether it breaks down how many of those Obama voters now supporting Brown are independents? I'd guess most of them are.

[TayTay]

20. Because they are angry at local Democrats

and in a punishing mood. It does happen. It is not indicative of a conspiracy unfolding.

Why did Bill Weld win in 1994 with over 70% of the vote? He appealed to middle of the road and conservative MA Democrats. We have a lot of those here.

[wisteria]

37. It is a damn shame our nation and Obama's agenda will be jeopardized over

local anger. A pity really.

[iceman66]

39. Weld was a lot more moderate than Brown,

and is Coakley really that bad?

If so, why did she have such a big lead just a FEW weeks ago?

[TayTay]

42. She was coming out of an all Democratic primary

and she sat on her lead.

Brown ran a very good campaign and he has caught a wave of anger in Massachusetts. Ed King caught that wave in 1978. Tag line from that election: "We put all the hate groups in one pot and let it boil." Same thing only different.

Massachusetts Democrats hold 89% of all elected offices in this state. 88%. Gee, wonder who the anger is directed at in this "change" election?

[JI7]

41. but i can see why dems would like Bill Weld, i don't see it with Scott Brown

[iceman66]

43. Exactly.

[TayTay]

44. Anger

A Change election means just that, change. Voting for Brown will piss off the Dems in-state. Ah, that is the point.

MA voters do have a mean streak. Always have. They get to express it now.
That said, I still think Martha could win. But, there is a lot of anger out there right now, combined with a mean streak and desire to mix things up.

[wisteria]

26. I wouldn't believe any poll who has 20% of Dem's voting for Brown. n/t

[laughingliberal]

29. I am sure some polls may be showing that but I just find it hard to believe any Democrat would vote

for Brown! But, fuck me, I thought Gore would win.

Oh...wait...he...did...

There may be hope. The polling coming out of there seems chaotic. I don't trust it and I fear there is some sort of ...um...mischief afoot. Hope not but this story the past few days has gone out of control and it does not strike me as honest. Sort of that same sink I got in my gut in 2000 driving home from work and hearing on the radio they had moved FL back into the too close to call column.

[Hugabear]

38. Because some polls lie.

Propaganda 101. Convince your enemy that voting is futile, that they're going to lose anyways.

[Canuckistanian]

45. One wonders if they were Democrats to start with

But I have the feeling that the polls will prove disastrously wrong tomorrow.

And I'm I'm talking Bill Bradley wrong.

[PM Martin]

46. Bill Bradley wrong?

Who do you think will win?

[Canuckistanian]

48. Coakley.

I think the number of people who say they'll vote for Brown is radically different from the numbers who'll ACTUALLY vote for Brown.

It's a sort of mass hysteria. I believe they'll give their heads a shake before voting in another Rush Limbaugh/Fox news
wet dream.

[wisteria]

54. I hope you are right!

Heres to victory! :toast:

[fishwax]

49. because some democrats are conservative and/or vote republican

11% of Massachusetts Democrats voted for McCain in 2008 ...

[TheWebHead]

52. probably because there's concern about 1 party control

of the senate, house and wh, esp the 60vote threshold. there's a segment of dems and republicans who like a certain degree of gridlock, and when the whole country knows you're #60, it carries an extra burden w/ centrists.

[AzNick]

55. Maybe because they want to send a message?

I don't think ALL the polls are tweaked.

[Freddie Stubbs]

64. MA Democrats have a history of voting for Republicans

Just ask Governor Romney, Governor Paul Cellucci, or Governor William Weld.

[pipi_k]

65. In all fairness...

William Weld was actually a decent governor.


In fact, last Gubernatorial election, Kerry Healey (Lieutenant Gov. to Romney) might have won except for one (IMO) huge mistake she made...

She was in favor of the elderly giving up their large homes and moving into smaller homes or apartments/developments so that families with children could live in those homes. In essence, telling old people that they were taking up valuable space and should give up/sell the homes they may have lived in for decades.

I don't know about anyone else, but I was sickened and outraged by this.


She seemed to be doing well up until that point.