In the real world progressives will turn out more for Coakley than centrists

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

In the real world the most liberal people in MA will be by far Coakley's strongest supporters and far likelier to vote than an independent.

Some dispirited progressives will stay home. A couple of progressive wackos may even vote Brown.

Meanwhile thousands and thousands and thousands of Reagan Democrats (Reagan won MA both times) will vote for Brown because they think he's a swell guy.

And thousands and thousands and thousands of regular main-line Dems will stay home because they are disenchanted.

That's the real world.

If Coakley has a problem it is thousands and thousands of centrist and 'pragmatic' Democrats and Dem-leaning unaffiliated who voted for Obama and will either not vote or will vote Brown.

A few progressives popping off is not the problem. The numbers of such folks is not an election mover. It might not even be poll-able!

It is gross (IMO) for anyone to wish for a defeat in this race out of an excess of leftitude but such sentiments are, however offensive or wrong-headed, not practically scapegoat-able if Brown wins because they don't represent a lot of real-world voters.

Conservative Democrats are the problem. A couple of hundred thousand of them. 19% of people who voted for Obama and say they will vote for Brown are the problem. That's almost 400,000 people. (I think Obama got about 2 million votes in MA.)

That 19% is not the most liberal Obama voters. It is the people who voted for Obama who also voted for Ronald Reagan twice.

Maybe if Coakley loses by 500 votes we can put Wavy Gravy on trial or something, but if the conventional wisdom is correct then far-lefties will have had no impact on the race beyond turning out for Coakley in a higher percentage than any other demo, but not enough to counteract the large Reagan Democrat problem.

PS: I am trade-marking "Leftitude"!

[Mojambo]

1. Excellent post. n/t

[PM Martin]

2. So you see Brown taking this one?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. I posted a Coakley prediction earlier and I'll stick with it.

I admit that I am not super-confident at this point but hey... we'll all know tomorrow.

The OP addresses the widely predicted scenario and the polls... we don't know that 19% of Obama voters will or will not do something, but that was the PPP figure so I used it in the OP.

[scarletwoman]

3. Thank you. Sanity is always appreciated. nt

[Tailormyst]

4. Thank you- being blamed for fthis by clueless people is getting really old.

[highplainsdem]

5. K&R. Thanks for posting this!

[quinnox]

6. exactly, its not the liberals or progressives who will be to blame

if the Democrat loses in Mass. It's the candidate, and also I would argue the direction Obama and the Democratic party have taken since gaining power.

[WillyT]

7. Spot On... Phone Banked For Coakley From California Today...

K & R !!!

:shrug:

[Oregone]

9. Thats why they are important when it comes to elections

When it comes down to writing policy, politicians prefer it if they sit down and shut the fuck up

[TexasObserver]

10. Recommend

[JVS]

11. "Maybe if Coakley loses by 500 votes we can put Wavy Gravy on trial or something"

:rofl:

[Warpy]

12. Good luck, I've been trying to tell left bashers that for days

It's not the left who will cause the problem, the left is used to being betrayed.

It's the CENTER.

Any party that doesn't play to the real political center is asking for disaster. Any party that doesn't play to its own base is asking for trouble.

Yet the party cons keep telling us the center is between our conservative and theirs, ignoring the true center and throwing victory away with both hands.