Ellen Ratner: What's Really Going On In Massachusetts

[cali]

By Ellen Ratner


I really don’t understand why people and pundits are having such a field day with the Massachusetts Senate race. Of all the places I have lived in my life, I have logged more years in the Bay State then any other. That makes me feel qualified to add one more piece of punditry, and here it is.

Massachusetts is a liberal state only to a point. It has had Republican governors such as William Weld and Mitt Romney. It was also the first state to legalize gay marriage and it has the nation’s lowest divorce rate. It is a state that prides itself on rugged New England individualism and that means its resident don’t think that they have to tow any specific political line all the time -- be it liberal or conservative.

Martha Coakley is in trouble for three reasons:

1. She does not have a warm and fuzzy personality.
2. She did not work hard at campaigning for the job. She figured that once she won the Democratic primary the seat held by the late Senator Edward Kennedy would be hers.
3. Massachusetts has its own insurance plan and it has already cost much more than anyone anticipated. The Bay State citizens are wary of any more government health care plans because they don’t trust the numbers as they relate to the cost.

I think Martha Coakley is going to pull it out and win the Senate race. I do not think this election is about President Obama or even about his health care plan taking over the private sector.

As the famous Massachusetts Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill said, “ All politics is local”. He was right then and right now. This race is about Massachusetts and not a national referendum on who is in the White House.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/01/19/ellen-ratner-martha-coakley-obama-massachusetts-senate/

[WilliamPitt]

1. Thank you.

Local local local.

[cali]

3. yep. and thanks for your blogging today. really dig it.

[ddeclue]

4. Actually local local NATIONAL..

the health care issue is a NATIONAL one - they just have had a previous local experience with it.

[hlthe2b]

7. I will be so thrilled if her party ends up a wild celebration...

and to have you reporting on the scene. Thanks, Will. As always, great reporting.

[ShortnFiery]

2. LOL, yeah let's blame Coakley? ... it's all her fault, not the absent DNC or corporate democrats?

:eyes:

[cali]

5. you know the buck stops here saying?

yes, it's primarily her fault that she's in such a pickle. Now why don't you attempt to respond cogently to the points Ellen makes?

[Hello_Kitty]

22. Er, no. For a US Senate race the buck stops higher.

I've personally witnessed the national Dems swoop down and take over at the first sign a candidate in an important race starts struggling, no matter how easy it looked like it was going to be going in. Coakley ran a sucktastic campaign but she was inexperienced and ill-prepared for a serious general election challenge. The DNC and DSCC have no such excuse. The SECOND Brown was within 15 points of Coakley they should have been all over her campaign.

[cali]

26. inexperienced? you mean she never held statewide office like being AG?

Seems to me her opponent had far less experience. And the DNC and DSCC certainly raised money for her.

[Lord Helmet]

13. she's run a mindblowingly crappy campaign

[Dogmudgeon]

21. Just the DNC and corporate democrats?

How about the Progressives, most of whom prefer to snipe from the sidelines and pretend they (we) are above it all?

Yeah, we have so much Conscience. So much we can't get away from the computer and actually campaign. Might be bad for our too-cynical-to-be-bothered "street cred".

Note to the "that says more about you than me" and "sez you" and other nyah-nyahs: not only is my non-existent Prog divinity not the issue, this isn't all about YOU, either. This is what happens when we, altogether, develop a Consumerist attitude toward politics, like we hired Mr. O. to be our personal shopper. I'm hoping that we win this one in a squeaker and take it as a lesson learned painfully rather than fatally.

We'll know about the election in a few hours. We ALREADY know about what we need to do.

And buy a good pair of walking shoes; November is closer than we think.

--d!

[depakid]

6. "Massachusetts has its own insurance plan and it has already cost much more than anyone anticipated.

Sure sounds like a national tie in to me....

[nightrain]

indeed.

[Qutzupalotl]

15. It's a tie in, but it also removes a sense of urgency

in that Mass. residents already have healthcare. That does change the dynamic of the race.

From their point of view, what's to stop them from saying, "I got mine; get your own state-level plan"? I think Brown is trying to appeal to selfishness, which can work for Republicans.

There is dissatisfaction with Romneycare, but not urgency at the level of that seen over the national plans.

[Motown_Johnny]

8. all politics may be local but very few of the important decisions are made on that level

[arthritisR_US]

9. a link from faux news...think I'll just wait for the returns. n/t

[canoeist52]

10. Again, people, it's "toe the line" -not "tow the line".

[bain_sidhe]

28. I could make an argument for "tow" the line

as in "pulling" something attached to a line. Tow the boat into shore... tow the barge down the river, tow the line that the Dems are pitching...

But, you're right. It's supposed to be "toe" the line as in people all standing in a row against a line marked on the ground - you want your toes to be touching the line.

[scheming daemons]

11. I agree that the race is not about Obama.... but the media will spin it that way endlessly anyway

...

[Blaukraut]

23. Sad but true. That's why they're already calling the race.

They can't wait to get started with the 'referendum on Obama and Dems' meme.

[Number23]

29. *ahem*

"In a contest with major national implications, Massachusetts voters chose a successor to the late Sen. Edward M. Kennedy on Tuesday in a down-to-the-wire election that became a referendum on President Barack Obama's sweeping health care overhaul and his first year in office."
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2010/01/19/politics-us-massachusetts-senate_7285977.html

Exhibits A-Z :eyes:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

12. rationalization

There has never been a losing campaign without plenty of specifics upon which to hang blame.

But the fact remains that many flawed campaigns win when the candidate is with the political trend.

Of course there are specific circumstances. And there were here in VA. And there were in NJ.

But there is a very real national trend.

[cali]

17. the national trend is all the more reason to run a balls out campaign

she literally ran one of the worst campaigns I've ever seen.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

25. As did Deeds

Deeds was AWFUL.

But he wasn't losing by 17% awful.

[cali]

33. but Deeds ran in a marginally purple state and

Coakley is running in a blue state and for the seat held by a MA icon.

[rox63]

14. OMG, an accurate piece from Fox!

She is right. The state of this race has little or nothing to do with what the national party or the Obama administration has or hasn't done. And Massachusetts is not necessarily the liberal oasis many people think it is.

[cali]

19. It's Ellen Ratner. She's a sharp cookie.

[Name removed]

16. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Demoiselle]

18. Thank you! This sounds utterly sensible a free of spin. Go Martha!

[treestar]

20. I don't want them depriving the rest of us of an insurance plan because

they don't like theirs. Even if we got single payer, some people would be complaining about the details. I could not care less about personality, though I know most voters are pretty shallow. The idea that seat was easy to win is understandable - in fact it's still a shock that state would bring us a teabagger who will derail our agenda.

[damntexdem]

24. But all of that is irrelevant. Facts are not what will decide what is made of the race.

It's all in what the MSM will make of it, wants of make of it.

[marybourg]

27. "Tow" any . . . line? Toe. Toe the line. Sheesh. nt.

[TexasObserver]

30. Recommend

[devilgrrl]

31. "She does not have a warm and fuzzy personality"

because that makes all the difference in the world! :sarcasm:

[cali]

32. sadly, personality does indeed influence how people vote.

[devilgrrl]

34. Personality seems to influence most things doesn't it? And not all of that is good.

:-(

[krabigirl]

39. Sadly, it does for so many people in this country. It has since the 80s.

[nashville_brook]

35. I would be interested to know how much national party influence there was on her campaign...

like, was she advised to run "conservatively" - i.e. just slide. Not make waves.

[rox63]

38. No - she just ran as herself

She's never been a great campaigner, and she was trying to run a campaign based on competetency and experience. She just took for granted that she would win, which was a huge mistake.

[boston bean]

36. Are you Ellen Ratner?? nt

[cali]

37. huh? no.