Former Kennedy aide does the math for a Coakley win

[Bill219]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2010/01/former-kennedy-aide-does-the-m.html

...Parker offers the math for Martha Coakley to pull off the same.

It starts with the numbers for the primaries a month ago: 650,000 Democrats voted, and 160,000 Republicans. Commonwealth Secretary Bill Galvin on Monday estimated that 1.6 to 2.2 million would turn out on Tuesday. For reference, in the November 2008 presidential election, turnout was 3 million.

"My gut -- and early calls -- tell me we're well on the low side of the Galvin estimate because of weather," Parker says, "but we'll make at least 1.2 million easily.

"There are 490,000 registered Republicans in the state. If three-quarters of them turn out -- a big 'if' -- that means Brown needs at least 300,000 independents. Meanwhile, if just the same number of Dem ALONE as showed up in December show up today, Martha wins...

[Cha]

1. If all those Dems heed the

call and get out there and vote today!

[cali]

2. brown is, according to the polls, pulling in the indies at over a 2 to 1 margin

and there are more independents than dems. In addition, polls also show brown winning up to 20% of the dem vote.

[rgbecker]

4. I'm registered as an independent and would never vote other than Democratic.

But when you live in a state that is almost guaranteed to go Democratic, its nice to be able to take a republican ballot in a primary to make sure the idiot doesn't even get on the general ballot. I'm sure there are those leaning republican who are staying independent so they can have a say in the democratic primary. Doesn't help in predicting anything about this one, I guess.

[Winterblues]

3. Independents make up as much as Democrats and Republicans added together

Granted Democrats way outnumber Republicans but Independents outnumber Democrats by the about same ratio.

[lunatica]

5. I don't know a single Dem who would vote for a Republican

Much less one like Brown. So I simply won't believe Dems are voting against Coakley.

[Statistical]

6. Math fail. MA is up to 40% indie and the poll show them leaning 2:1

Not saying Brown will win but it is hardly a slam dunk for Coakley.

Say 300K Republicans and Brown takes 90% of them = 270K votes.

700K Dems show up but polls shown Brown only taking 70% of vote = 30% to brown. 210K more for Brown.

Say total vote is 1.5 million = 500K indies.
Brown would need another at least 270K indy votes to put him over 50%.

Polls showing him getting way more than that. To stop him Coakley needs to split the indies (46% or better). Coakley getting close to half of the indy vote shouldn't be hard but polls (even from Dem firms) show Brown taking indies 2:1.

If Coakley can't hold the line at close to even on Indies the race is over.