CA-Sen: Boxer With Solid Leads But Campbell Asserts Himself; SSP Moves to Likely D

[ccharles000]

Field Poll (pdf) (1/5-17, likely voters, 9/18-10/6 in parentheses):

Tom Campbell (R): 30 (NA)
Carly Fiorina (R): 25 (21)
Chuck DeVore (R): 6 (20)
Undecided: 39 (59)
(MoE: ±7.1%)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 48 (NA)
Tom Campbell (R): 38 (NA)
Undecided: 14 (NA)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 50 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 35 (35)
Undecided: 15 (16)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 51 (50)
Chuck DeVore (R): 34 (33)
Undecided: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±3.3%)

The Field Poll (it's become kind of cliched to refer to them as the "gold standard" for California pollsters, but their reputation precedes them) checks in on the California Senate race for the first time since September, with one big change: the switchover of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell from the Governor's race to the Senate race. It looks like Campbell knew what he was doing, getting out of the GOP governor's field where he was financially outgunned (as seen today, where it's barely newsworthy that Meg Whitman just fronted herself another $20 million), and immediately moving into the lead in the GOP field.

Campbell had released an internal poll last week that showed him leading Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore 31-15-12, suggesting that he was eating equally into Fiorina and DeVore supporters. But the Field poll suggests that this is almost coming entirely out of DeVore's share -- initially strange since there's a sharp contrast between Campbell's Silicon Valley moderatism and DeVore's O.C. conservatism. But it makes sense when you think that much of DeVore's support was coming from the seemingly ascendant libertarian side of the party (and that social conservatives have been unusually quiet lately), and many of them are likely to embrace the socially liberal but fiscally hawkish Campbell.

As for the general, Field sees little movement in the last four months in the Boxer/Fiorina and Boxer/DeVore matchups, suggesting that Barbara Boxer hasn't seemed to sustain much personal damage from the withering of the Democratic brand. As I'd feared, though, the amiable and well-known Campbell polls noticeably better against Boxer than the others -- at ten points, not enough to start hitting the panic button, but indicating that this race will need to be carefully monitored. (Rasmussen recently showed this a closer tace than that, but, well, what else is new.) Taking into account Campbell's apparent likelihood of winning the primary and the overall national environment, that's enough for us to move this race back onto the board at "Likely Democratic."

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6255/casen-boxer-with-solid-leads-but-campbell-asserts-himself-ssp-moves-to-likely-d

[cali]

1. this is scary.

[Mojambo]

2. It sure the fuck is.

I do NOT like how 2012 is trending at all.

[FBaggins]

4. 2012 isn't the issue right now... but even if it was a typo, you're right.

at least in the Senate. The 2006 senate races gave us a few new seats in otherwise "red" areas... and we'll be defending far more seats than the republicans.

We likely won't lose the Senate this fall (though it is just barely in play), but if we lose half a dozen seats in Nov, the 2012 elections could easily cost us the senate if things haven't improved.

[Mojambo]

5. Yeah, it was a typo. Meant 2010. n/t

[FBaggins]

3. That's not a solid lead.

A well known statewide incumbent regularly polling under 50% is in danger... regardless of the lead (unless the oponent is a similarly well known statwide player like a former senator or governor).

Cook has it as leans "D" and has Boxer as the 8th moth endangered Democratic seat.

OTOH, Coakley was in LESS danger just a couple weeks ago.

[krabigirl]

6. it is scary, because Campbell is very moderate...moderate R's can get elected here (ro)

IF they get the nomination. The hard-core nutjobs don't like Campbell, as he is pro-choice, etc...

[immoderate]

7. Republicans like to put up amateurs.

Whitman and Fiorina join Schwarzenegger, Reagan, Shirley Temple, Sonny Bono, and George Murphy. None of them was worth shit.

--imm