Our slide into the OIduvai Gorge has begun...

[Subdivisions]

Of course I'm not referring to the Great Rift Valley ravine located in Tanzinia and known as the "Cradle of Mankind". I'm referring to a theory of de-industrialization that is now upon us and which is named for the steep-sided African gorge that is believed by archeaologists to be the location of man's earliest awareness.

No, I'm referring to the Olduvai Theory which holds that industrial civilization is destined to a lifespan limited to just 100 years and that the range for those 100 years is 1930-2030. Here is an introduction to the Olduvai Theory:

...snip...

History

The Olduvai theory was first introduced by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. in 1989 as the "transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization".<1> The theory was backed up with data in the 1993 paper "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium".<2>

In June, 1996, Duncan introduced a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age" where the term "Olduvai Theory" replaced "transient-pulse theory" used in previous papers.<3> Duncan further updated his theory in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000.<4> In 2005, Duncan extended his data set to include up to 2003 in "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization".<5>

Details of theory

Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030)<3> i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value.

The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating, after a Malthusian catastrophe, in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050. <5>

The Olduvai Theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with renewable resources and the natural environment.<4>

The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections:

The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - energy per capita 'declined at 0.33%/year'
The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins ... with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'.
The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'

...snip...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olduvai_theory

Clues abound regularly that the theory is sound - if you know the theory and know what to look for. One of the precepts of the Olduvai Theory is that we will begin to see a deterioration in the state and maintenance of utilities and, more specifically, electric utilities and the electric grid. So, it is in conjunction with the following news item that I provided the above introduction to the Olduvai Theory:

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. faces longer power outages resulting from storms this year after utilities cut spending on maintenance by as much as 50 percent, according to Quanta Services Inc., the world’s largest builder of transmission lines.

“Because they haven’t been doing maintenance for a few years, we will see longer outages and we will see more frequent outages as storm season approaches,” Chief Executive Officer John R. Colson said yesterday in an interview in Bloomberg’s Houston office. “It’s a frequent, very frequent occurrence that cities are affected by storms that shouldn’t really affect their distribution systems, and they are devastated and they are out of electricity for days and days.”

Quanta, based in Houston, expects 2010 revenue from maintaining power lines and providing other electricity- distribution services to be little changed following a decline in 2009 because of the spending slowdown.

FPL Group Inc., which was fined a record $25 million for a Florida power failure, halted some projects targeting improvements in reliability in the state after it got a lower- than-requested rate increase on Jan. 13.

...snip...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aDEseYkg2RN8

Like our friend robertpaulsen, who earlier this week http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=7523811">offered his review of the movie Avatar in which he provides a qualifier to the effect that he views the world through a Peak Oil filter, I have to confess that I too consider Peak Oil when thinking about things and, just as much so, Climage Change. It can be debated that we've been on the downward side of the Olduvai Gorge scenario for several years now. But taking the theory into account while also considering the dual dangers of Peak Oil and Climage Change and seeing clues, such as the one in the Bloomberg report above, should for anyone who thinks that anything other than a contraction of civilization, for example...let's say...economic growth, is imminent may be setting themselves up for a big disappointment when their futures don't turn out quite the way they had hoped.

From what I can see, the Olduvai Gorge Theory is playing out roughly right on schedule. From the sorry state of infrastructure to the transformation of our former manufacturing economy into our current (and faltering) service economy, the clues are everywhere that perhaps Dr. Duncan had it right. Which means that we're already way behind in preparing for what is dead-ahead.

[grillo7]

1. So...Unless we find some magic cold fission beans, we're screwed

I think the theory is essentially sound...I mean, we ARE going to run out of cheap oil relatively soon. Of course, as with anything else left to congressional action, the idea that anything has even changed won't be acknowledged until we're deeply and irreversibly in the middle of the problem.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

2. Distributed power could be one of the answers such as

http://www.plugpower.com/products/residentialgensys/residentialgensys.aspx

All-The-Time Power
Plug Power offers two GenSys fuel cell
systems that provide continuous power in
distinct applications.
Grid-Connected,
Combined Heat and Power
The high-temperature GenSys fuel cell system operates parallel to the grid as a replacement for traditional furnaces and boilers in residential and light commercial applications. The combined heat and power (CHP) system runs on natural gas at a temperature between 160° C and 180° C, making it compatible with existing home heating systems – working seamlessly with radiant, forced air or baseboard hot water.

The high-quality heat generated by the system can meet the full heating needs of a home while supplementing the electrical load. The high-temperature GenSys is expected to deliver a 20% to 40% reduction in home energy costs and 15% to 25% reduction in home CO2 emissions compared with incumbent technology.

[Subdivisions]

3. That's an interesting gizmo. But it falls short...

What we need is for that thing to provide ALL the power for the home.

[Subdivisions]

5. '...until we're deeply and irreversibly in the middle of the problem'

We're already there. "Cheap" oil was in the $10-$30 range, with $30 being the extreme upper range. Today, oil is ~$75/barrel. Last week it was above $80. OPEC prefers a $75/barrel price. OECD has peaked and is now in decline. The oil price forecast, barring a catastrophic collapse of demand, is for the price to trend toward $200/barrel by 2012.

[Gregorian]

4. Politics and economy and environmental troubles are all linked.

They're linked by a couple of things. I won't mention either since they aren't going to change.

But the solution isn't going to come from some House, of White or black or Representatives.

Edit- How's that for depressing.

[Subdivisions]

6. The Olduvai Theory: Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization

http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/OlduvaiTheorySocialContract.pdf

This paper accomplishes four goals:

The first goal is to show that from 1893 through
1949 three distinguished scholars formulated a
comprehensive Olduvai scenario.

The second goal is threefold: 1) electrical power
is crucial end-use energy for industrial civilization;1 2)
the big blackouts are inevitable; and 3) the proximate
cause of the collapse of industrial civilization, if and
when it occurs, will be that the electric power grids go
down and never come back up.

I first presented the Olduvai Theory at an
engineering conference entitled, “Science, Technology,
and Society” (Duncan, 1989). My paper was well
received and a lengthy discussion followed — even
though I had no data to support it at the time. A few
years later I had gathered eight (8) historical data
points to backup the theory (Duncan, 1993). Three
years after that I showed that it held up against the
world energy and population data from 1950 to 1995
(Duncan, 1996). Next tested in 2000, the theory was
supported by data from 1920 to 1999 (Duncan, 2000,
2001). The third goal of this paper is to extend this
series of tests by using data from 1850 through 2003.
The fourth goal is twofold: 1) detail and describe
the Olduvai Theory from 1930 to 2030, and 2)
document that a growing number of studies concur
with Postulate 4.

Three Scouts

There is no comprehensive substitute for oil in
its high-energy density, ease of handling, myriad
end-uses, and in the volumes in which we now
use it. The peak of world oil production and then
its irreversible decline will be a turning point in
Earth history with worldwide impact beyond
anything previously seen. And that event will
surely occur within the lifetimes of most people
living today. (Youngquist, 2004)

...snip...

http://www.oilcrisis.com/duncan/OlduvaiTheorySocialContract.pdf

[starroute]

7. Isn't it nice to flatter yourself that you're the peak of human civilization

Kind of like the fundies believing that they're the favored children of an almighty god who designed the cosmos to meet their own personal needs.

My advice would be that the people quoting Duncan should get over themselves and consider the degree to which our so-called civilization is merely a half-assed first step towards getting our relationship to the planet in better focus. A little more humility here could go a long way.