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Edited on Fri Jan-22-10 10:37 PM by northzax
That is going to drop on a lot of smaller banks soon. Most of them had pretty darn good residential mortgage portfolios, and the ability to renogiate as needed locally. If most of your loans are to primary residences, people have a major incentive to pay something and work out a deal, it's their house after all. Plus, the loans are a lot smaller. And if nothing can be done, you'll get something for most houses. It may be .60 on the dollar, but it's something. Commercial loans, real estate or not, are often settled for .20 or less on the dollar, if that, and the debtors have an incentive to fold up shop, declare chapter 11 and walk away. Now what do you own? A half built shopping mall? What are you doing with that in a land of half built malls?
There are an awful lot of small, undercapitalized banks across the US. The ones that played fast and loose with residential mortages have already failed, for the most part. Now come the easier commercial ones. It doesn't take much to topple an already struggling bank with assets in the <$100m range.
On edit: I have a good friend who has made a very nice living the past decade getting in on small local banks pre-ipo or buyout. (it is routine for a bank about to get listed to offer accountholders access to the offering) He's out of the game now,
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