We will see far fewer blue dogs in the Senate and House in 2011

[cali]

Say hello to Senator Pence and Senator Hoeven and other radical wingnuts. That's the direction we're headed in. Say hello to an emboldened and ever more effective and vicious repub party with huge tea party influence, and the real possibility that they will regain the majority in one or both houses.

I want to see the blue dogs wielding less power. I don't look forward to seeing them replaced by wingnuts.

What seats will we lose in the Senate? These are likely:

Delaware
Nevada
Arkansas
North Dakota (for sure)
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Indiana

[FBaggins]

1. If the election were held today that's right...

... But it won't be.

[leveymg]

2. What's going to change between now and November?

Curious as to what your thinking is on this.

[FBaggins]

7. Loads of things

Which doesn't mean that they'll necessarily change for the better... But look how far they moved since last November.

A MA "wake up call" is exactly that... An opportunity to wake up.

The problem is that we may not be able to correctly identify what the call was... Then things could get even worse and we'll WISH the elections had been today.

[leveymg]

15. You'd think the Senate leadership and WH would have heard that message and offered a Reconciliation

package the House can live with. But, no, they'll just let it die after trying to twist arms of Democratic Representatives to pass a poison pill Senate HCR Bill with no guarantee that it will be fixed.

Frankly, I think Obama and Emanuel are just as responsible for this disaster as Reid and Bachus. I hate the kind of deceptions and pressure tactics used to try and get the House and the base to sign on. Beyond discouraged - disgusted by this transparent effort to sabotage national health and privatize medicare. Social Security was to be the next target of opportunity. Maybe, its best that the center of the machine is weakened.

[MadHound]

3. Well frankly Obama and the Democrats aren't doing themselves any favors,

Or anything to prevent this from happening. The HCR fiasco, and now this spending freeze. Dems aren't going to have anyone to blame but themselves.

[Phoebe Loosinhouse]

4. Why doesn't Arlen Specter retire for Heaven's sake?

Why do people feel that they have to be carried out of the Senate? It is not fair to their states.

[cali]

5. beats me.

I really like my senior senator but he's been there for 36 years.

[FBaggins]

9. The man switched parties just to keep his seat.

You think he would step aside for the good ofthat party (or even the country).

[Leopolds Ghost]

38. Wait, when did Specter switch parties and last get elected? 6 yrs ago?

[FBaggins]

40. Closer to six months ago.

That doesn't mean he didn't switch in order to keep his seat... it just means that it likely won't work.

He would have been ousted in the primary.

[DFW]

6. I agree with FBaggins

The DNC, even without Howard, will get off its ass and work to preserve some of those seats, especially
ones we have a good shot at keeping, (PA, CO, DE). A turnaround in fortunes in the economy or a few well-
thought-out reforms could save a few of the others. I'm not even sure Pence will oust Bayh, and Biden is
still pretty popular in Delaware, if not universally.

But I agree that the voters will prefer real Republican nut-cases to bland Democrats pretending to be
Republicans, stupid as that may be. When Democrats do not present dynamic, palatable choices, the people
are stupid enough to go for the disaster they don't know most of the time. They have proved this often
enough in the past. In a comment in the Nation, I mentioned that Obama needs to pay less heed to his
opposition and more to the people who worked their asses off to get him elected with a big Democratic
majority. He has a better shot at succeeding if he remembers who his friends are. His enemies make no
bones about who they are. Just because they shout louder doesn't mean their voices are more worth listening to.
I wonder if anyone in the White House agrees (or even cares)?

[FBaggins]

11. Both Kaufman and Biden have said they won't be running.

DE is as good as lost now.

[DFW]

27. Castle has been around forever

A fresh face with some spark could help. It worked for the dark side in Mass.

If not, then, yes, DE is a write-off. It's Kaine's job to vet and recruit a dynamic fresh face.

[FBaggins]

30. MA wasn't about a "fresh face"

Coakley was plenty "fresh".

As for DE? Castle won statewide by over 20% barely a year ago. I doubt that his age is going to make enough of a difference.

[Leopolds Ghost]

37. Do you think DE is a conservative state?

[FBaggins]

39. Certainly not "conservative"

But not particularly liberal either.

Both Castle and Biden have succeeded by being closer to the center than their party was overall.

[cali]

12. that's an optomist's view.

I'm not one. The political environment is poisonous for dems, and is likely to remain that way through Nov. In DE, there is, as of now, no dem running against Castle. Biden has announced he will not run. Pence beats Bayh in Indiana polls. Yes, Bayh could win, but I think Pence has the advantage. In CO, Bennett is not positioned well and in PA Arlen is in real trouble for a host of reasons, from having a primary opponent to his age and health and his switching parties.

You say that you believe the DNC will now get off its ass. I hope so, but it is under the control of the WH, and I'm increasingly viewing them as tone deaf.

[democraticinsurgent]

14. Bayh is probably safe

not that he deserves to be, but Pence beating Bayh would be a tall order. Possible, but hardly probable at this point.

Plus, the rumor here is that Pence is not going to go for it.

[FBaggins]

19. Bayh is only safe if he runs to the right.

And I disagree that Pence wouldn't be able to beat him. I think it would be a very tough race... Particularly if we need him to toe the party lone on more close votes.

It's good to hear that locals don't think Pence will get into the race. But even without him, a recent poll showed Bayh only leading Hostettler by 44-41.

Bayh is well known in the state. Regardless of his lead, he's in trouble if he regularly polls under 50.

[democraticinsurgent]

32. I agree that Pence could win

Bayh's popularity is a mile wide and an inch deep, but he always seems to get overwhelming support on election day. Maybe those days are coming to an end. Susan Bayh's Health Insurance industry ties are getting a lot of press here and that can't be good for Evan.

Pence would be a formidable candidate. He is telegenic and is articulate if you don't actually listen to the meaning of his words. I don't think voters here realize how right wing Pence actually is, but this year he might get big points for just taking a position, something that Bayh never does. Giving up a safe House seat and leadership position for the uncertain prospects of a Senate seat means a fairly serious gamble for Pence if he were to jump in to the race.

I'm stunned by that poll you quote. Hostettler is a marginal candidate who probably won't even get much party support.

[FBaggins]

34. The poll was from Rasmussen.

So use the appropriate amount of salt.

But it has little to do with Hostettler... it's really just evidence of Bayh's weakness.

Now... I think that MUCH of that weakness is caused by the national party forcing him to support things that are unpopular in his home state. His comments right after the MA loss show that he "gets" this. That's bad for Democrats who want him to toe the party line to break through some of this resistance... but good news for Democrats who want him to hold on to his seat.

[democraticinsurgent]

41. and now we know, Pence is out

he doesn't want to risk his current bag of magic beans and I don't really blame him.

So we will see what happens.

I don't really agree that Bayh's weakness is caused by the party. It's his own consistent inability to ever take a stand on anything. He has no views. He is a "finger in the wind" sort who takes the path of least resistance.

He's popular here, I think, because he's a centrist and he pulls in R's during the general elections. But I think that time has past. He's going to have to be a real Democrat in this economically challenged state or get turned out. Plus the heath care industry ties are a new albatross that he's never had to run with before.

[democraticinsurgent]

33. More support for Bayh's vulnerability

A new survey by polling firm Rasmussen Reports shows Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh trailing a possible Republican challenger.

The firm surveyed 800 likely Indiana voters Thursday and Sunday and found Bayh, D-Ind., attracted 44 percent of the vote, compared to 47 percent for U.S. Rep. Mike Pence, a Republican from Columbus.

Pence reportedly is considering a run against Bayh.

Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Dan Parker questioned the survey and said Bayh is well positioned to campaign as the incumbent.

http://nwitimes.com/news/local/lake/article_b32f49a1-afb8-50e8-beac-c020d1503969.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[FBaggins]

35. No doubt that Pence is the one with the best chance of beating him...

...but he expects to have a leadership role in the House if republicans ever take it back. So this is a big risk for him.

I think he would be slightly favored if nothing else changed, but he's worried that things CAN change... and Bayh has the ability to change many of them. So it's a tought call.

OTOH... if I were a Republican in the House I might make clear an opposition to a potential "leader" who wasn't willing to try to lead his party to victory.

[democraticinsurgent]

36. well said and i agree 100% n/t

[DFW]

23. It is an optimistic view, I'll admit

I meant Joe Biden helping out whoever the Democratic candidate is. I heard his son isn't running. The fact that
there is no clear candidate in Delaware gives a fresh face a chance if he or she is competent. Castle has been
around since the last Ice Age. I REALLY hope that Specter announces his retirement and soon. I do not count on
his being in the Senate next year whether he runs or not.

I know the treasurer of the DNC and he says Kaine is ready to move. We'll see. Everything he told me about Howard
when Howard was elected chairman of the DNC was true and more. If he's wrong about Kaine, then we're in serious
shit with the Senate, no two ways about it. If there were any way to do the same thing with Howard and Kaine like
NBC did with Leno and Conan, I'd go over Niagra Falls in a rowboat to have it happen.

[cali]

29. Kaine is a figure head. You know that. The DNC is run out the WH political

arm. Kaine doesn't even manage the DNC on a day to day basis. That's done by exec director Jennifer O'Malley-Dillon.

[Kaleva]

31. Off year elections have more to do with local politics then with who is occupying the Oval Office.

[KharmaTrain]

8. Add Illinois

The candidates for Senate aren't setting anyone's hearts on fire here...and a nasty gubenatorial primary is turning off a lot of voters. While not as hard hit as other nearby states, the unemployment and underemployment is a ticking time bomb and it has Democratic party written all over it.

[RC]

10. "Senator Hoeven" is an empty suit. A wind sock.

He used to be a democrat. He is far from radical.

[malakai2]

13. Yep

I hear him described as a potted plant around Bismarck.

[RC]

42. I've heard him described as such also.

He sure doesn't rock the boat much, which may not be such a bad thing if we can get him around the right people.

[Union Yes]

16. DLC are wingnuts too IMO so I don't see it as a problem.

'Thug vs DLC=Little to no difference.

Perhaps it'll take a DLC beatdown at the polls to fix this party.

I'm lost for answers. But I know the DLC will never provide the solutions and have/will stonewall progress as much as Rethugs.

[cali]

18. no, that's just factually incorrect.

if you can't see the difference between say, Specter and Toomey, you're either not well informed or you're not looking.

[AlinPA]

17. Specter (R,D) PA will lose to Toomey. Specter is worn out and won't be able to keep up

with the younger republican. Look for PA to be another MA. The White House, governor Rendell and Sen. Casey all support Specter against Sestak, who would, IMO beat Toomey.

[AlinPA]

20. With the billions in corporate money, post SCOTUS ruling we will get clobbered in the house too.

Dumping $10B into all house races for republicans is not too hard for them to do.

[whistler162]

21. Actually there will be far more....

Since everytime a member of the House or Senate does something that "progressives" don't like they will be labeled "blue dog"!

[Name removed]

22. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

24. Deleted sub-thread

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[stray cat]

25. Republicans should make many DUers happy - maybe they will be a more uniting enemy

[mmonk]

26. Sometimes its better to see your enemy in front of you than the one

behind you if there is a silver lining. That being said, there are progressive Democrats that share the values of Democratic Party voters and can win challenges if you help them.

[Kaleva]

28. I suspect that the governorship of Michigan will go to a Republican

Granholm, by law, can't run for a 3rd term, and the economy here in this state is quite bad.