Per my prediction: Asian Carp DNA found in L. Michigan..

[MineralMan]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/science/20carp.html

CHICAGO — Genetic material from the Asian carp, a voracious invasive species long feared to be nearing the Great Lakes, has been identified for the first time at a harbor within Lake Michigan, near the Illinois-Indiana border, ecologists and federal officials said Tuesday.
---------------------------

When this controversy first broke here, I predicted that the carp had already entered the lake and that it was too late for the measures that had been planned. Apparently, I was correct in my estimation, which was based on the almost always tardy efforts to block other non-native species. Typically, by the time the threat is recognized, the time has passed for preventive measures.

I also predicted that the first actual fish will be found in Lake Michigan in late April or early May by an angler fishing for other species. The example will probably be a dead specimen.

Now, we will have to wait to see what the effects of this invasion will be. In a decade or two, we'll know more. Lake Michigan is a large body of water, and even with the rapid breeding of the Asian carp species, the impact will not be identifiable for at least 10 years, or even longer.

[nemo137]

1. That's pretty much what my mom, a former icthyologist, predicted, too.

She's been following this story with some interest for a while.

[MineralMan]

2. Well, my prediction sure got roundly condemned in earlier

threads. I'd rather they weren't in the lake, but the brouhaha about it was too late to prevent it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they were in the lake for a year or more already.

I suspect that most fisheries experts would have made the same prediction. The furor was political, not scientific.