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By the Middle of 1968, for the first time, the majority of Americans came to oppose the war in Vietnam (During the Campaign for the Presidency). Thus this switch in support for the war permitted LBJ to start to reduce the number of Soldiers in Vietnam. The drop in support came from several causes, the main ones seems to be the following:
1. The Tet Offensive (Showing the Viet Cong still had the ability to fight the US toe to toe, while the US high Command has said for years the Viet Cong was on the decline), the protest against the war (especially by ex-Vietnam Vets),
2. The realization that the Sino-Soviet was REAL and that the best thing for the US would be Chinese Forces in Manchuria NOT in or near North Vietnam,
3. The defeat of Communist guerrillas in Malaysia and Indonesia (Do more to the cut off of supplies then the terror attacks used by the CIA against those Guerrilla, the cut off of supplies was do to the US Navy intercepting supply ships to those locations AND the concentration of Chinese and Soviet aid to North Vietnam as both sought to get Support for themselves from the North Vietnamese).
4. The Soviet Invasion of Czechoslovakia, which showed that the Soviets were capable of moving men and supplies to the extent that the US had to increase military spending for the defense of Europe.
5. The Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, which had TWO affects, first, that Europe was even more dependent on Persian Gulf Oil then we we AND any defense of Europe MUST include a defense of the Persian Gulf Oil Fields. This required additional spending on the Navy and withdraw of Naval forces from Vietnam.
6. The Arab Oil Embargo which showed the limitation of US Aerial re-supply system. The US could get supplies to Israel BUT ONLY IF THE US HAD FULL ACCESS TO OIL AND IF THE US HAD TO CHOOSE BETWEEN TWO PLACES THE US WANTED TO SHIP SUPPLIES, THE US HAD TO SELECT JUST ONE (i.e. If supplies were needed by Israel and South Vietnam at the same time, the US could ONLY supply one of them).
7. The Yom Kipper War which showed that the Soviet Army had Night Vision system as good as the US systems in use at that time. Israel suffered a massive set back for the Syrian Army had night Vision Goggles while the Israel defense Force did not. This lead to increase spending on such systems not only for the US Forces in Europe BUT also the Israeli Defense Force.
All told the US by the early 1970s was forced to adopt a 1 1/2 war policy (From the end of WWII to about 1973 the US had a 2 1/2 was policy). Under the 1 1/2 war policy the US could fight one offensive war and one Defensive war (Or three defensive wars). The previous 2 1/2 war policy (Which is the Official us Policy today and has been since the fall of the Soviet Union) meant the US had the ability to fight two Offensive wars and one Defensive war. By 1974 (and the fall of South Vietnam) it was clear that the US had a Choice, who would the US support? Israel or South Vietnam? In the 1960s the US could support both, but given the growth in Soviet Military Power in the 1960s, the growth in Arab Military power during the same period the US could support Israel or South Vietnam but not both. Congress (not the president) finally choose Israel when Congress passed the law banning US troops or planes in South East Asia.
My point was the start of the end of the War was the Anti-War movement, but then everything else kicked in and it slowly became clear that Vietnam was a waste of US Resources. Even as late as the Fall of Saigon you had a sizable percentage of the US population wanting to Continue the War in Vietnam, but the Political and Military chiefs no longer wanted to. The Anti-war protest gave such politicians cover but the real reason was the change in the world situation caused by the Sino-Soviet Split AND the ending of US oil independence. Together these made fighting in Vietnam a dead end and thus the war ended.
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