Obama's true base is the black vote. The repub base is the white vote.

[Kaleva]

Obama got 95% of the black vote in 2008 while McCain got 55% of the white vote. In 2004, Bush got 58% of the white vote. I believe LBJ was the last Democrat presidential candidate to get a majority of the white vote back in 1964.

I think it can be safely said that President Obama has a virtual lock on at least 90% of the black vote and a majority of the hispanic vote in the 2012 primary and general election. If one accepts that, I don't see how any liberal/progressive Democrat could mount a serious challenge to the incumbent in the primary. The anvil to the Afro-American hammer will be the conservative and moderate Democrats who will vote for Obama then for a candidate who is more liberal then he.

The Republicans historically get a majority of the white male and female vote but for a Republican to be successful in 2012, he/she will have to do better then McCain who got 55% of the white vote and do at least as well as Bush did in 2004 when he received 58% of the white vote. The candidate will also have to ensure that the Democrat candidate gets less then 90% of the black vote which I just don't see happening with Obama.

In summery, Obama's true base is the black vote. His virtual lock on that demographic makes any challenge to him in a primary extremely problematic. For the Republican nominee, he/she will have to get a higher percentage of the white vote then McCain did in 2008 and then Bush did in 2000 and 2004.

[provis99]

I wouldn't call 55% to be a "base"

if you want a group that turns out for a 95-5 advantage the way that blacks do for Democrats, all the Repukes have going for them is Southern, white Christian fundamentalist, gun-groping teabagging rednecks. I group I don't care about, anyways.

[Kaleva]

8. It's the only way a Repub can win.

By getting close to 60% of the white vote while at the same time, depressing black voter turnout.

Bush, in 2004, won a majority of the white male and female vote in California and Illinois. He won a majority of the white male vote in Minnesota. When I looked at this shortly after the 2004 election, I was surprised to find out that Bush won the white vote in many blue states( I'm trying my best to recall from memory and if I made errors, I apologize).

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

1. His base is Democratic voters.

[Rebubula]

43. +1000

NT

[Gecko6400]

77. Yes, why seek

to cast this in racial terms? Serves little if any purpose, IMO.

[whistler162]

2. Well that is very bigoted of you!

[LaydeeBug]

64. it's a racist comment to be sure, and wholly inaccurate to boot. nt

[DefenseLawyer]

3. Excellent summery

whatever the hell that is.

[Bluebear]

16. Linen, lemonade, white pants, baseball and BBQ chicken.

[DefenseLawyer]

17. I feel warmer already!

Take me out to the baaaaall game. Take me out with the crowd...

[Bluebear]

19. Now you're gettin' summery!

[Igel]

42. Obviously from Hawaii.

Even in Houston we're having some decent wintery.

[hootinholler]

21. No Sir, There's only one, I say one summery upscale garb

Seersucker and the obligatory Panama. White linnen may be an acceptable substitute.

-Hoot

[WorseBeforeBetter]

32. Better then I could have done, but than again, what do I know? (n/t)

[Onceuponalife]

35. It's the opposite of wintery, obviously.

[undeterred]

4. I forgot Obama was black.

:hide:

[treestar]

7. Hi Tweety!

[treestar]

5. I would add the Hispanic vote

In fact that may have put him over the top.

[Kaleva]

11. I did say that I expect Obama to get a majority of the Hispanic vote in 2012.

[peace13]

6. Hang on a minute, I need to go check my mirror! n/t

[lumberjack_jeff]

48. Shit! I screwed up! I forgot I was white. Too late for a do-over. n/t

[peace13]

50. : )

I checked and I'm not black yet either!

[LiberalAndProud]

9. whatever.

I wish some DUers would stop telling me I am not a part of the Democratic base. And now, because of the shade of my skin I'm not par of Obama's base.

Yeah. So whatever.

I vote for the Democrat. Every time. That makes me the BASE.

Do you hear me now?

[Kaleva]

12. In a primary, it's rather easy to vote for the Democrat every time.

What I'm trying to say is that it's going to be very hard for a primary challenger to mount a credible campaign against President Obama. And it's going to be very hard for the Republican nominee to win unless he or she wins very close to 60% of the white vote while also reducing Obama's share of the black vote below 90%.

[tblue]

10. "Democrat" is a noun. "Democratic" is an adjective.

And since it's the Republicans who, with delberate disrespect, use these words improperly, I'd advise you to kindly make a note of it. When I hear "Democrat" used as a descriptor, it kinda gets my back up and I can't get to anything else you're saying. It's pretty much taboo in these parts.

[onenote]

13. so how do democrats in districts with very small AA populations ever win?

[Tim01]

14. He won't get the same turnout next time. nt

[Bluebear]

15. Wow, McCain got 55% of the white vote and you call that a base? (PS what is "summery"?)

I think linen is summery, for example.

[Jamastiene]

20. I tend to think of temperatures hotter than Hell and

mosquitoes and gnats when I think summery. :P

[blondeatlast]

67. Not in AZ--not enough protection from smooth, blistering hot surfaces! nt

[Jamastiene]

18. So, the rest of us can fuck off and go to Hell. Got it. n/t

[hfojvt]

22. I bet that's why Republicans

have taken out Michael Jackson and Tiger Woods. Denzel needs to watch his back. :tinfoilhat:

[Rebubula]

44. LOL WUT?

The Repubs did what? They forced Tiger to whore around?

I am not what you refer to when you mention Micheal Jordon...he is out of the spotlight because he is no longer doing what makes him famous.

Save you tinfoil 4channery racism for some other time.

[BeyondGeography]

23. Kerry got less of the white vote than Obama; guess his base was the black vote

not to mention every other D that runs a national race.

But you do make a valid point re. the primaries. Many a white "insurgent" candidacy has floundered because the black vote has essentially stayed an establishment vote in the party.

[karynnj]

41. Exactly

As to the primaries, Obama's popularity among Democrats, of all races, is too high for a challenge, but none of the statistics here are what is needed to support that contention. What I think would prove it is simply the latest poll showing the percent of Democrats who approve. If you added, a poll (and I have never seen it polled) that asked Democrats whether they were "to the left of Obama", "near Obama" or "to the right of Obama", these questions would likely end.

In 1980, Carter was less popular than Obama hopefully will be, but another difference was that on the spectrum of Democrats, he was pretty far to the right. Additionally, there was a left Democrat with nearly identical name recognition, who had support. The question was whether he could win the left and enough of the middle to beat the President in the primaries - and the answer was "no".

I suspect that the pattern is different for Obama. I suspect that he is very close to the center of the party. This splits those who might be tempted to desert him and it means that the average value of the absolute value of (voter position - Obama position) is smaller than for a distribution like 1980 when the President was at one end. (Note I said that I don't think the distribution has been polled, thus the distribution I hypothesize is only my opinion and everything I wrote depends on assuming that. )

In addition, unlike in 1980, there is no obvious high power candidate. In today's environment, 2012 will PUBLICLY start at the end of this year. Who are the potential challengers?

Clinton - says she is not running and was given the position of Secretary of State. For a not insignificant number of people, quitting in the near future and announcing a run at the end of this year, will be seen by many as stabbing the President in the back and will lead to high negatives on the part of some who now approve of her. There is also the problem that their positions are pretty close, with HRC being more Hawkish. This would not be a replay of 2008, but likely a rout.

Kucinich - never got more than 5% in polling in either 2004 or 2008, both open races. Absolutely will not be higher if he ran. (In fact, doing so could cost his congressional seat as he might be challenged as a gad fly.

Dean - I doubt he would run, 2004 was grueling and, I suspect, not a pleasant experience. I could see him getting near half in DU polls, but that is his BEST population. In 2004, he was far better than half and it didn't translate to caucus or primary numbers.

Gore - Gore made it clear in the 2 open races that he had "fallen out of love with politics". I seriously doubt he would challenge a sitting President.

Kerry - a strong, loyal Obama ally who would never do that. In addition, though his positions are more consistently to the left than Obama's, his history leads him to having less support than Obama on the left - so there is absolutely no way.

A new young superstar - I think with Palin and Edwards, there might be a reluctance to go with new flash until they have compiled a record and people know them better. Obama himself was an incredible "young superstar" and he still has star quality, but people have also gotten to know him and his family and like them personally.

While I think no one could succeed, if forced to identify the most likely to be even a remote threat, I would pick Russ Feingold - as a Gene McCarthy figure. Feingold's votes and positions this Congress have been less supportive of the President than most Democrats. He has been the least supportive of the foreign policy Democrats on Afghanistan and he has voted against the budget and the supplementary budget. He has also voted against most of the climate change votes - especially if coal was threatened. Add that to his long term stands on the Patriot act and votes on things like FISA. Could this pattern appeal to the growing numbers of libertarians on both the right and the left? Would his almost non-politician like personality help those who distrust the smoothness of everyone from Obama and Clinton to the less savory examples of Palin and Edwards? If Obama did implode (which the world, country and party better pray does not happen), a logical swing of the pendulum might be to an impolitical politician.

[Warpy]

24. Do you honestly think 11% of the voters constitute the entire base?

Do you have any idea there are people who are neither European nor African in origin? Do you have any idea how Obama could have won without a hell of a lot of white voters?

I find this premise both wrong and insulting.

[UglyWarrior]

74. I think the number you should use is more like 23%

African Americans are 13% of the electorate, but since the issue here is the "Democratic base," we would have to use the percentage of Democrats (as oppose to the percentage of total electorate) who are black.

Nationally, "23 percent of Obama's votes came from black voters; only one percent of McCain's came from African American voters." http://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/archive/Young_voters_not_essential_to_Obama_win.html

[SlingBlade]

25. And that leaves Progressives & Liberals Where ?

Never mind I know, In the Fucking Retarded area, Right Rahm you fucking dink.

But No, This Sounds way to fucking simplistic to me pal.

[Odin2005]

26. Obama's base is also voters under 30yo.

[Skittles]

83. I guess this 52 year old white gal is not Obama's base?

:o

[wickerwoman]

27. Sorry, but I'd like to give African Americans and Hispanics credit for voting on issues,

not skin color.

Anything else is like running Sarah Palin on the theory that women will vote for any kind of ideological abomination as long as you wrap it in a skirt and put lipstick on it.

[Jamastiene]

28. +1

[Kaleva]

36. Alan Keyes didn't get much of any support from the black community.

So, blacks will not vote for someone just because he or she is of the same skin color. However, President Obama has and does get a great deal of support. He received 95% of the black vote in 2008 and I think it safe to say he'll get at least 90%, if not more, in the 2012 primary and general election.

[Igel]

47. And yet there was the observation

that Obama got less black support than Clinton until it was clear he was viable.

So first you'd have to show that Keyes was a viable candidate in order to test your hypothesis. Good luck with that.

Then there are issues of culture versus race, which showed up both in the Keyes and in the Obama campaign. Keyes failed it. People were quizzical about Obama, but he established his bona fides. Again, also someething that needs to be the same between the two candidates before your hypothesis can be checked.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

29. How the fuck are you not banned immediately for posting this garbage?

Afro-American hammer?

[shadowknows69]

62. +1

[democracy1st]

30. What a dumb post!

[WorseBeforeBetter]

31. One for the record books. (n/t)

[Kaleva]

33. Nothing said so far has convinced me that...

a liberal/progressive can mount a serious challenge to President Obama in a 2012 primary. The numbers just aren't there.

[Bluebear]

34. Few people probably read past your stunning racial "statistics"

[Kaleva]

37. It's from the CNN 2004 and 2008 election webpages.

Their exit poll data breaks down the voters into race, age, ideology, party, income, education, etc.. Real nasty stuff.

[Bluebear]

40. Certainly CNN didn't say Obama's "base" is black people? like your 'summery'?

[Bluebear]

78. ?

[voc]

38. op

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tydVlhvubk&feature=related

[bridgit]

39. You're no more no less than 50/50 wrong

:kick:

[CBR]

45. I do agree that the black vote makes it difficult for anyone to

primary Obama. This is fine with me because I support Obama and think a primary is silly and destructive.

[lumberjack_jeff]

46. There's more to a candidacy than simple group affinity.

Gender, Race and religion are all factors, but they are not determinants except for voters who are bigots and idiots.

[Bluenorthwest]

49. Well take a look at this:

Obama won Oregon by a huge margin. Oregon has 2% African American population. 11% Latino. Yet Obama won the primary, and the general. My district, Obama at over 90%.
The base is Democrats. Who vote for Democrats. The base is 'those who show up regularly and vote Democratic'.

[Bluebear]

52. +1

[La Lioness Priyanka]

53. yup

[blondeatlast]

68. +1. nt

[anonymous171]

51. A praire populist or a hispanic californian could probably run against him

The populist might be especially effective because of the primary delegate system.

[11 Bravo]

54. Then I need to work on my tan!

[Peacetrain]

55. The AA community is not the base of Obamas support... it is one of the bases of the Democratic party

PERIOD! Irish/Welsh/Cherokee HERE.. and I am Obamas base.. Iowa put the President in the race.. Does not get any whiter.. or older.. sooooooooo... Obamas base is pretty damn big, and much broader than that..

And thank you AA community for being the one of the major bases of the Democratic Party..

[Kaleva]

73. But which base can he count on most in 2012?

I know you've read many posts here at DU where people who claim to have been part of Obama's base now say they leaving the Party, will not support Obama in 2012, or will support a primary challenger to him but hold their noses and vote for Obama in the general election if he is the nominee.

I also know you don't care one bit for the crap that is being flung at President Obama in GD and GDP by so-called members of the Democratic Party base.

[A-Schwarzenegger]

56. Cuckoo.

:*

[Bluebear]

80. Elegant.

[KamaAina]

57. That would explain why Obama carried such African American strongholds as VT, IA, OR, etc.

:sarcasm:

[Bluerthanblue]

59. & New Hampshire-

:shrug:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/The-Vote/2008/1104/obama-wins-in-landslide-in-tiny-new-hampshire-towns

[mdmc]

58. Blacks are the base of the party

blacks and women..

[Kaleva]

71. Yes.

[Ardent15]

60. This is fucking dumb

Unrec.

[Forkboy]

61. Wait...what?

:crazy:

[Name removed]

63. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Kaleva]

70. "Nice job saying blacks only voted for him because of his race."

I never said that nor did I imply that. It's a fact that he got 95% of the black vote in the 2008 general election. and I think it's safe to say President Obama will get at least 90%, if not more, of the black vote in the 2012 primary and general election.

For those here arguing that Obama ought to face a liberal/progressive opponent in the 2012 primary, I fail to see how such a candidate can mount more then a token campaign. The numbers just aren't there. If the candidate has to concede over 90% of the black vote, a large majority of the moderate and conservative vote, and fight for the remaining liberal vote, the campaign can't be taken seriously.

[ncteechur]

65. I'm Obamasian

[Goldstein1984]

66. Reads like TS bait to me

[blondeatlast]

69. Your words are less than thoughtful, but I hope you meant well. nt

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

72. Didn't Dukakis get over 95% of the black vote?

Turnout is a huge factor. Voter turnout among black voters was probably extremely high in 2008.

[Canuckistanian]

75. Hey! Who you callin' white?

I prefer the term "Melanized-American"

[LatteLibertine]

76. President Obama

Did get 55% of young white voters and 41% of white males. Yes, there are still a good deal of white folks in the Republican party and you aren't going to win elections without them either. 55% of young white voters is a lot of people. I believe all black folks in the United States are on the order of 40million. Naturally, like white people all of them do not vote. White folks are around 66% of 309million people.

The Democratic party should focus on inclusion and building their base. Let Republicans practice dividing folks along perceived racial lines. We need to do better.

Some of the most wealthy who are crony capitalists and possibly sociopaths don't draw distinctions among the poor/middle-class people they exploit or crush.

[Warren Stupidity]

79. You probably don't want to know how stupid your analysis is.

But on the off chance that you do, go here: http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html and select the "Size bars according to share of electorate" button. Then think about your post.

[AspenRose]

81. The thinking should have taken place BEFORE the post.

Oh well.

[quaker bill]

85. After reviewing

The OP has a point.

Actions that increase turnout by caucasians reduce the probability of a Democratic Party victory, because, based on the data you so kindly provided, there is a 55 percent chance the caucasian will vote republican and only a 43 percent chance they will vote for a democrat. Those kind of odds do not qualify the group as the sort of dependable support worthy of the term "base" for a democratic candidate.

However, more than 1/3 (34.5 percent of democratic votes per the chart) of the vote that elected President Obama were minority votes. On average, minority voters supported the democratic candidate 75 percent of the time, so increasing turnout among minorities significantly enhances the probability of victory. This level of support is worthy of the term "base" for a democratic party candidate.

Yes, most folks who voted for President Obama were white, but left on their own, whites would have elected McCain / Palin by a large margin.

Now I don't particularly care for a racial analysis, as for the most part far more subtle things are at play. However, the actual data is not as conclusive as you suggest.

[Warren Stupidity]

89. The OP's assertion is 'base = blacks'

the chart I pointed you at clearly demonstrates that african americans constitute an exceedingly small slice of the electorate. The Democratic base is the 40-45% of the entire voting demographic that consistently votes Democratic. We are the base. We are women, men, blacks, urban east/west/midwest city dwellers, latinos, gays, etc. We come in all flavors.

"Yes, most folks who voted for President Obama were white, but left on their own, whites would have elected McCain / Palin by a large margin."

How silly. And again, the OP's thesis was not 'whites vs non-whites' it was 'blacks are the base'. The OP's assertion remains bullshit or at best seriously stupid.

[quaker bill]

90. I read the chart

and did the math. If the OP had instead used the qualifier that black Americans are "a very important component" (or even "critical component") of the base, the statement would have been absolutely accurate. The chart makes this much clear, roughly 25 percent of the votes that put President Obama in the Whitehouse came from black Americans.

You may wish to take these votes for granted, and might perhaps wish to see "liberals" as more critical. This would be silly.

As far as the statement of mine that you quoted, take another look at the chart. I would call a 55 to 43 McCain/Palin victory (whites alone) a rather large margin, and by no means "silly". I would choose the term "unfortunate" as opposed to "silly".

[Warren Stupidity]

91. Well then your visual comprehension is distorted so I'll do the math for you.

131M voters
56% female vote of 116.525M = 65.25M votes
95% AA vote of 15.8M = 15.05M votes

Even if you take away 12% of the women for being black, women 'are Obama's base' under the OP's bizarre theory.

*edited to remove the extra '='

[Quantess]

82. Tell that to Oregon voters

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_qFBGyY-0KLU/SDDjX-BR7aI/AAAAAAAABOk/Tok6nPZfkwI/s400/Oregonians+for+Obama+-+May+18++2008.jpg

The Obama crowd in Portland was overwhelmingly white, and Obama won in Oregon by a healthy margin. Just a quick google image search will show you that the MASSIVE crowd that day was mostly white people.

[Swede]

84. I forgot that for an hour.

:shrug:

[Iggo]

86. delete...already addressed.

[varelse]

87. I guess I don't need to vote in 2012 then

:eyes:

[AlinPA]

88. 13-14% of the population is his base? I can't buy that.