So what happens if we DO attack Iran?

[CoffeeCat]

What happens geopolitically, if we do attack Iran?

I'm sickened beyond repair--when I contemplate us attacking Iran. It's sad
and pathetic that the neocons are steamrolling forward. Thugs. From a
humanitarian standpoint--it's heartbreaking to think that we will destroy
another Middle Eastern country from the inside out. It's so horrific,
that I find it hard to "go there".

I am wondering--let's say we do this. We bomb Iran. What happens then?

How does the world react? How do other governments react?

Currently, the "Coalition of the Willing" could have their next meeting
in a phone booth. No one supports Iraq, so what governments would actually
stand up and praise the US attacking Iran?

What happens to the world, after we do this?

[Kagemusha]

1. The immediate problem is Iraq going up like a tinderbox

because the Madhi Army has pledged to defend Iran...

[CoffeeCat]

6. The Madhi Army...

...is the Shi'ite Army in Iraq, is that correct?

Are you saying that they would go ballistic in Iraq...and
create additional devastation in Iraq--in order to protest
an Iran invasion?

Do you think the Madhi Army would go to Iran also?

[Kagemusha]

57. It's a complicated issue and hard to simply summarize.

See, the Badr Brigade (or whatever they're calling it now besides Badr) is led by a man who not long ago, sat down with Bush and acted like they'd be allies in bringing the Mahdi Army under control. The Badr Brigade was housed and trained in Iran during the Iran-Iraq War and existed to fight Saddam's forces and bring about Islamic (Shiite) Revolution in Iraq. The political arm is called the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and is the other big militia-backed Shiite organization in the al-Maliki government, through the Dawa Party which has relied on the Mahdi Army for street muscle and protection since Dawa doesn't have its own. Dawa was linked to the creation of Hezbollah; Maliki was its man in Damascus for years.

So in other words... Bush is allied with Iran's best allies in Iraq, to fight the least Iran-allied but fastest growing and arguably most powerful on-the-streets Shiite force in Iraq.

The Mahdi Army is heavily in with urbanized Marsh Arabs (ones Saddam drove to cities by drying the marshes up) who are native Iraqis, who didn't spend time in Iran during the Iran-Iraq war, who aren't beholden to Iran... but who are getting some weapons from Iran apparently, though not lots of IED's (no point) but rather mortar rounds and RPG's, because the Mahdi Army has befriended Iran on the issue of being opposed to the Americans - though basically nothing else - and because Iran hates the Americans more than the Mahdi Army.

So.

The Mahdi Army would never go into Iran. They're Iraqis through and through. The problem is, even Bush's friends in Iraq aren't friends to the point that they should be counted on during a showdown with Iran. The Mahdi Army is not Iran's biggest friend in Iraq by a longshot; it's just the most cutthroat, and the most willing to lose men in a serious confrontation. Right now, Sadr is trying to keep the Mahdi Army out of a fight with the Americans, saving his powder so that a) he'll have the most capabilities when he needs them, b) he's not seen as the aggressor, which is smart politics. The US, on the other hand, does dumb politics as a routine matter...

[helderheid]

2. I don't have an answer. Is the UN talking about intervening any attack? If not, they should be.

[CoffeeCat]

10. That's an interesting point...

The UN has not been the leverage for the United States--that it was
during the run-up to the Iraq war. The UN kept defining the benchmarks
and demands that Saddam had to meet. He never met them, and that
gave a clear pathway to war.

We do not have this from the UN now.

It feels like we're alone--demanding that Iran stop their "nuclear
weapons program".

[coalition_unwilling]

109. Excuse me, but SH allowed UN inspectors in to his country where

they found no WMD. What else should SH have done?

[LynnTheDem]

117. Iraq did meet the UN demands, and in fact the UN said HELL NO to war.

There most certainly was not any "clear pathway to war".

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

15. How many spare divisions does the UN have?

Do they have a standing army ready to go to hotspots? Or do they have to rely on the ad-hoc participation of member nations on a per-mission basis?

I guess I'm real skeptical about how much help the UN would be.

But it's certainly worth a try. Anything to keep us from another solo act of agression that we can't afford.

[Raydawg1234]

21. They wouldn't be much help.

[Kagemusha]

58. Well because you bothered to ask...

The UN has proposed a standing rapid reaction force for years. Member nations, the US included, are unwilling and not necessarily able (with the current commitments in Afghanistan straining NATO badly for example) to fund or man such a force.

[cynatnite]

28. The UN doesn't have the troops, the will or the know-how...

to step in between the US and Iran.

[rman]

62. When's the last time the UN Security Council did something without US approval,

let alone something -against- the US?

[lvx35]

3. Isn't Russia deeply involved with Iran?

wouldn't a lot of other parties be pulled in almost instantly?

[helderheid]

4. Russia and China, right?

[Strelnikov_]

19. Russia and Chindia will take a pass

Russia stands to make a fortune. And if all the gulf oil goes off line, they become the worlds sole energy superpower. It appears to me that Russia is playing both sides.

Chindia will dig in, weather the storm, and emerge in a position to snap up all those production contracts that will no longer go to US multinationals. Also, all those dollars they are sitting on will go a long way to outbidding us on what remains of the world export market. It appears that Chindia is also playing both sides.

No, Russia and Chindia will play the "If the enemy is destroying themselves, don't get in the way" card.


The Japanese, on the other hand, are scared shitless . . .

[Gloria]

45. Just a few days ago, a Russian dep. minister said that

Russia would be the #1 oil producer, outproducing Saudi Arabia.

It's in the new World Energy Watch that will be posted tomorrow at Buzzflash.

Other interesting "power plays", too.

[itsmesgd]

5. Are we going to do something about it over here, or does an outside country

need to bring about regime change by overthrowing our dictator and occupying us for a decade or two in order to save the world from mutual assured destruction. "Mutual Assured Destruction" remember that phrase from the cold war days. Everyone had nukes, but no one was dumb enough to use them because everybody knows that if we all use the nukes, we burn the world.
The chimp thinks that if/when we launch the big nukes that his god will step in and save us all. That's not a good insurance policy for me. I'd rather we not test gwb's faith.

[bdamomma]

107. * is fanatical and we need to invoke the 25th amendment

could we start off with our local legislature and ask them to put forth a resolution to impeach this jerk. It could work if we get on the backs of our local officials. Didn't Vermont or New Hampshire put forth a resolution to impeach this SOB.

[Edweird]

7. Russia and China too

I'm no expert, but it's obvious it will turn massive and horrible instantly.

[lvx35]

11. Thus the new chinese anti satellite missile.

All of our military operations are based on satellite, it could hurt us severely. It all makes sense now, the test was about Iran.

[Edweird]

17. China made a deal with Iran for oil

and they need LOTS of oil for their budding society. This isn't gonna be pretty or easy.

[lvx35]

18. Yes, its perfectly clear.

Not pretty at all.

[EVDebs]

20. Too bad for them, it only will last until 2031. I thought the Chinese were smart.

I guess I was wrong :)

Plan B 2.0:
Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble

Ch 1 subsection, 'Learning From China'
http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/PB2ch1_ss3.htm

""The inevitable conclusion to be drawn from these projections is that there are not enough resources for China to reach U.S. consumption levels. The western economic model—the fossil-fuel-based, automobile-centered, throwaway economy—will not work for China’s 1.45 billion in 2031. If it does not work for China, it will not work for India either, which by 2031 is projected to have even more people than China. Nor will it work for the other 3 billion people in developing countries who are also dreaming the “American dream.” And in an increasingly integrated world economy, where countries everywhere are competing for the same resources—the same oil, grain, and iron ore—the existing economic model will not work for industrial countries either. 21""

[Edweird]

29. China needs infrastructure

Roads, machinery, construction materials. All of that revolves around oil. It isn't so much a consumer based need as a civil engineering requirement. I'm basing this on my experience in the construction/infrastructure industry and raw speculation. Your mileage may vary.

[Leopolds Ghost]

49. As You're aware, the roads and concrete are needed for the new automobile economy.

Which is energy-unsustainable without oil.

Besides which, every new ten-lane road in China's cities, which were formerly dominated by narrow, pedestrian-oriented streets, means a million fewer bicyclists and a million more drivers. The implications for global warming and energy consumption are frightening.

Even if we had free energy from fusion, total auto use -- of the sort that even Democrats are now advocating here at home (mandatory drivers ed for illegal immigrants, mandatory drivers licenses, a free car instead of funding transit, eliminating carpool lanes, that sort of thing) is resource-unsustainable. We would literally run out of iron ore.

China has already tripled the price of steel, which is what saved the US steel industry from total death (of course, now it is all foreign owned by union-busting Indian entrepreneurs, so that doesn't matter).

[Edweird]

56. I'm no fan of the chinese government

but I respect them enough to acknowledge that they probably have the next 50 to 100 years planned out. I think we a witnessing China's check and mate of our country to facilitate their emergence as the new world superpower. So, I'm absolutely sure that China is aware of all of this and has made some kind of contingency plan for whatever eventuality. I'm no authority of any kind, but I feel pretty confident about what I'm seeing.

[Leopolds Ghost]

59. In other words, reach critical mass, drive US broke so oil costs $10 and only costs 1 yuan

Sort of like in Tanzania, all the fish are for the export market and local stocks have been eaten by the export predator fish imported by foreign owned packaging plants to eat the local fish, so the local residents literally starve to death because they can't afford to buy their own fish -- but the export fish are cheap once they reach Europe, because of the trade imbalance.

(See the movie DARWIN'S NIGHTMARE for this story)

[Edweird]

61. I see the potential for

grinding poverty served on a base of steaming hot crushing depression sprinkled with racial/ethnic/theocratic violence for added spice. Maybe a little like Bosnia in the 90's.
But what the hell do I know?

[Kahuna]

68. Mee too. China is definately postioning itself to be the next

superpower. That day will come sooner rather than later thanks to bushco.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

75. I do enough translating of Japanese articles about Asian politics and

economics to know that all the governments in East Asia (except for the nutjobs in North Korea) are very future-oriented. They're thinking 50 years ahead and cooperating with one another on basic research, as well as building the infrastructure that will reduce their need for oil.

Efforts are still spotty, but at least they're THINKING, which is more than our government is doing.

[EVDebs]

80. So, who replaces the US as the world's "consumer" nation ?

With 28% of world GDP, and 2/3rds of that being 'consumption', that means that about 20% of world GDP is from US consumption.

Unless the Asians are brainless they won't be destroying their customer in order to satisfy some idiot's economic fantasy. It's interesting though, rephrase this and you get:

'Unless the US is brainless they won't be destroying their supplier in order to satisfy some idiot's military fantasy'

The idiots being * and his neocons and DoD...

WalMart's oligopsony vs. the Middle Easts oil oiligarchy-oligopoly sotospeak.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

81. I think it's more the case that U.S. will sink into irrelevance as a

consumer of cheap junk and producer of mindless movies and a few agricultural exports, while the upscale goods go to East Asia and Europe.

[EVDebs]

83. Congressional Research Service Report shows graphic detail

China's Trade With The US and The World
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL31403.pdf

page 13 of 51

China isn't about to risk losing its trading partner over oil. And EVERYBODY is being screwed by the low yuan values including the Europeans and China's Asian neighbors. Oddly, a higher price for oil worldwide further devalues the US dollar, something the Chinese should consider long-term, don't you think ?

[paparush]

114. Any country with 10,000+ nukes will never be irrelevant..

but I get what you are saying.

[raccoon]

103. Where in the sam hill did you hear that?

"total auto use -- of the sort that even Democrats are now advocating here at home (mandatory drivers ed for illegal immigrants, mandatory drivers licenses, a free car instead of funding transit, eliminating carpool lanes, that sort of thing)"

[Raydawg1234]

34. Interesting article. The mainstream media does not cover things like this enough.

This is the stuff that really drives foreign policy, not all this Freedom and Democracy crap.

[CoffeeCat]

24. Are you saying that China agreed to...

...get involved against the US, if the US attacks Iran?

And in exchange, Iran agreed to some kind of oil exchange to China?

[Edweird]

30. No, i'm saying

china has an interest in the well being of Iran cause they need their oil.

[Edweird]

37. And... as an addded bonus

Guess who has been financing idiots GWOT.. China. If we start messin' with their oil in Iran they might flex their debt muscle.

[tbyg52]

66. Hey, Edweird!

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[4bucksagallon]

8. One positive, they will have to bring back the draft if they plan on putting troops on the ground...

Positive in that it will make these little weasle chickenhawks sit up and take notice that they might yet have to put a dog (child) in this fight.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

14. I think if we go into Iran, there will be a draft.

Bush has held out for as long as he could.

I think Bush would have had a draft a long time ago, but chose not to -only because he'd rather spend the military budget on defense merchandise instead of paying soldiers.

[TahitiNut]

35. Profiteers prefer mercs, anyway.

Why spend a paltry amount of taxpayer dollars directly on individuals when you can spend huge amounts through companies, out of which the "ownership class" can extract their pound of flesh?

[Leopolds Ghost]

51. David Petraeus advocated the use of unlawful combatants (mercs) in his confirmation hearing

Not a single Senator called him on it.

[TahitiNut]

53. Appalling.

We've become a nation of war criminals ... without honor.

[On the Road]

91. Is Using Mercenaries Illegal?

Not doubting it -- I've just never heard of this.

[raccoon]

72. I don't think the American people would stand for a draft.

Even the Bushbots who loudly proclaim that GWB is such a good Christian would draw the line at a draft. A draft is when it really gets up close and personal.

[paparush]

115. What do you foresee the American People doing if the draft IS reinstated?

Really..what do you envision would happen. What would America's response be?

[raccoon]

116. I think even the Bushbots would be contacting their Congresspeople,

wailing and gnashing their teeth, possibly even --marching.

[CoffeeCat]

84. Another reason Junior delayed the draft...

I also think that Junior avoided the draft to keep protests and public dissent at manageable levels.

Junior and the rest of the neocons understand very well--that the draft catalyzed the
anti-war movement--which helped stop the Vietnam war.

Before Junior could enact a draft, he had to first strip away our civil rights and
make it legal to declare protesters "enemy combatants" who can be detained with
no rights.

The chess pieces are in place. The PNACers can reinstate the draft, because they
can "handle" the protesters and the dissent with barbaric means--that are legal.

Cynical, I know. However, it's most likely true.

[bdamomma]

102. he would rather play with bombs instead and nuclear arsenal.

we have to stop this maniac now. He is clearly a threat to our security, and the Constitution states if that is the case, WE THE PEOPLE CAN DO SOMETHING.

[Raydawg1234]

36. positive? The draft means that I'll probably have to go fight.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

40. God, I hope not.

I have a lot of family memebers who are just the right age. :scared:

[liberalhistorian]

100. My son, my only child, is a teenager,

and they are NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT getting their hands on him to use as a pawn in their megalomaniacal, political and imperialistic games. NO NO NO NO NO NO NO!!!! I'll hide him in fucking Tanzania and go to jail indefinitely, if I have to do so, never mind his goddamned military-obsessed freeper father and his jingoistic "I'd be proud if my son died for his country" bullshit (we've had fights over him joining the military when he's old enough, and yes, he actually said that!) Fine, then let him send his second, younger son he had with my son's stepmother into the meat grinder if he's so determined to have a child in the military. The kid's only seven, but the way things are going now, that's what he'll have to look forward to.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

101. I have nephews who are old enough...

...and a 17 year old daughter with a lots of friends who come by all of the time. I look at these kids and think, I can't believe they're old enough to drive...let alone go to war next year.

As I make my 12 year old son's bed I think, one day he could be sleeping in Iraq or Iran or....

I hope we could get rid of Bush before things get worst.

[raccoon]

104. If there is a draft (which I don't think will happen) I don't think it will be just males. nt

[Gloria]

9. Iranian leader stressing Iran-Russia ties......

Fromt the current World Media Watch up now at Buzzflash.com

http://www.irna.ir/en/news/view/line-24/0701284208194633.htm

1//Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iran
SUPREME LEADER STRESSES IMPORTANCE OF IRAN-RUSSIA COOPERATION

Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei on Sunday stressed the great importance of Tehran-Moscow cooperation and said the two sides can serve as partners in the political, economic, regional and international domains. Receiving Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov, who submitted him a message from Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ayatollah Khamenei said that Islamic Republic of Iran welcomes all-out expansion of relations with Russia. ... Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran and Russia hold half of the world's total gas reserves, adding, "The two countries through mutual cooperation can establish an organization of gas exporting countries like OPEC." ... Calling his talks in Tehran "positive," Ivanov said Moscow believes prospect of cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran is "very good and promising." Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani was also present in the meeting.

[pocoloco]

13. Surely they are smarter than trying to sell

our oil to Russia.

[ConsAreLiars]

12. The end of empire. Iran can retaliate directly and china and Russia would pile on.

Read the following two part article in Asia Times:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HJ19Ad01.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/HJ20Ad01.html

[Edweird]

39. #4 is the killer

They can destroy without ever firing a shot. "Pay Us Back NOW"

[SanCristobal]

41. France tried that back in the 70's.

Nixon just ended the gold standard so the we wouldn't have to give up our gold. I'm sure someone has a similar idea about China.

[ConsAreLiars]

43. France did not own the kind of share of US debt that Chimpy and the

multinationals have given China, and France was not at war with the US. The comparison is meaningless.

(edit to add) Your faith in the competence, concern for our welfare, and foresight of the neocon cabal is touching, but I have seen no evidence of any of those attributes thus far.

[SanCristobal]

50. It's a different circumstance, but shows how we might act.

I'm just pointing out that someone probably has a plan to dick China over if need be. I seriously doubt China would go to war with us if we attacked Iran, in fact I'd be willing to bet John Edwards house on it.

(edit to add) Don't loose faith! Remember, they gave us faith based initiatives and the chance for discount Weekly Standard cruise tickets.

[ConsAreLiars]

52. The war between state capitalism in China and Multinational Corporatism HQ'd in the US

has been underway for some time now. The PNAC plan was a childish attempt to "surround" China and Russia and control oil. They know that. I'd bet Chimpy's Paraguayan escape plan on it.

[ConsAreLiars]

42. Keep reading.

The US military and economy both run on oil. The logistical demands of imperialism is its key vulnerability, and the supply lines are exposed along the way.

[bdamomma]

106. oh for sure, China can just say to * pay up boy.

[hogwyld]

97. The American dream is finished

Hopefully, the world will show us some measure of mercy the we denied others. Karma is a B**ch ain't it?

[cynatnite]

16. Depends on how we attack...

If we do, I think it'll be an air strike here and a an air strike there. That's how it'll start, IMO. From there, I think Iran would react with sending more fighters into Iraq to go after our troops and it'll escalate.

I know bush is crazy and he'd do just about anything, but the one thing I honestly don't believe he'll do is drop a nuclear bomb on an Iranian city. He'd lose his military support. He may possibly use a nuclear bunker buster, but it's my opinion that if he dropped anything with any type of nuclear capacity he'll face worldwide condemnation from most nations except those who are too indebted to the US.

When I look at this, and I'm no expert by any stretch of the imagination, the worst case scenario in Iraq is an all out offensive on all US troops at their bases including the green zone. The militia groups, with Iran's help, could all unite and assault the troops causing massive amounts of casualties. These people aren't stupid and they know a huge number of American casualties, and I'm talking over a thousand lives, in a short time frame would insure the outcry from here in the US would be loud enough to pull out the troops.

This is what I see happening.

[CrazyOrangeCat]

22. I think he and dickweed are crazy enuf . . .

. . . to think they can get away with mini-nuking all their nuclear facilities. They are very, very deep underground, from what I've read recently--thus the "need" for nukes. I've also read some scary stuff about these small, hydrogen, 4th-generation nukes. They have no uranium/plutonium, so they don't leave an area nearly as "hot" as the bombs that we grew up hearing about. No massive mushroom-clouds either. The levels of tritium are elevated, and will give tons of innocent people cancer, but they aren't the huge events that we have embedded in our minds from childhood.

Trouble is, the NeoCons are utter incompetents. They've f*cked up everything they've ever touched. And the whole world will find out. And we'll be pariahs forever.

Hope against hope that some grown-ups intervene very very soon . . . .

[cynatnite]

26. My understanding is that the nuclear bunker busters aren't that reliable...

I don't know much about the 4th generation nukes.

Like you, I do hope grown-ups intervene as well.

[JHB]

78. That just makes it more likely that if they play that card...

...they won't just play one.

[confludemocrat]

93. It'll be a disaster beyond any previous level for the United States

and an economic hit that will stagger the U.S. and the world and unhappily for those who likely favor such a war, will kill for generations the militarism that has grown like a fungus since WWII,
And finally, there will be a day of reckoning for Israel that I hate to think about

[Raydawg1234]

23. Without nukes: regional conflict, gas shortage, draft

With nukes: World War III

[EVDebs]

25. Zero sum game for all...Remember 'A Beautiful Mind' and cooperation among all ? n/t

[CoffeeCat]

31. I remember "War Games"....

...and I'm wondering when Matthew Broderick is going to
burst through the door and save us all?

[Just-plain-Kathy]

27. If I were Iran...and getting bombed anyway...

I would bomb America’s interests...I guess that would be oil and Israel. This is all very scary.

[cynatnite]

33. Iran's best and most viable option without getting nuked...

would be a plan to get the US out of Iraq, IMO. I'm no strategist, but it seems to me that getting into Iraq and planning an all-out offensive on US troops and their bases, including the green zone, would be the best way. They would need to cause as many casualties as possible so the US will have no choice but to pull out the troops.

They'd have to pull it off working with militias and other groups. That's the only way I see them getting involved without the fear of being nuked. Going after Israel and oil would be a very foolish move on their part. I don't believe they're that stupid.

[Selatius]

46. You don't need to to that to decapitate the US occupation in Iraq.

I am almost willing to wager that Iranian agents have already inserted the coordinates of vital buildings and command bunkers in the Green Zone into the targeting computers of their scud missile launchers and various other missile launchers. The problem with these launchers is their mobility, making them difficult to destroy. We were never able to stop Saddam from raining scuds on Tel Aviv, as an example.

When the US hits, the Iranians will be given an order to unleash the missiles. Within a few minutes, a rain of scud missiles will start in the skies of the Green Zone. Because scuds are notoriously inaccurate, the Iranians will pile on many of them. If you shoot enough scuds, you're bound to level the entire area.

With the Green Zone under the gun, any US units that try to leave the Green Zone to seek shelter from the rain of scuds will necessarily have to leave their fortified positions and enter the Iraqi countryside...countryside controlled by hostile Shia militias and Sunni guerrillas.

[CoffeeCat]

85. Sounds like we're on the track...

...to hell.

Welcome to Dante's inferno.

These neocon bastards know exactly what they're doing--inciting further war.

Our soldiers are just sitting ducks--and the neocons are the ones with the orange sauce.

Sick. Twisted. Bastards.

[EVDebs]

71. If everyone would just exhibit some patience...the world's oil runs out 2031

or so anyway...why are fundumentalists of all stripes, Christian/Muslim you name it, rushing into armageddon scenarios ?

If the world were 'summitting' on energy right now we'd all be better off for it. But our 'decider' is no leader, that's for sure, and that goes for the Iranians too, who are stuck with their mahdi-crazed 'decider'.

US Must Abandon Iraqi Cities or Face Nightmare Scenario, Say Experts
By Rupert Cornwell
The Independent UK

Tuesday 30 January 2007
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/013007K.shtml

Derrrrr, they (DOD GHWB, Scowcroft, Powell) knew this going in yet went ahead anyway

That quote from A World Transformed says it all. The Powell Doctrine says it all. They shitcanned both in order to get us into this mess; Dems in Congress are going to have to revive the WarPowersResolution - their Constitutional oversight of mad executives gone amuck-- and a revisit to the Magna Carta-- and the Powell Doctrine's no war unless the public is for it and there's an exit strategy.

We should be into full GreenhouseGas/ClimateChange/EnergyConservation mode right now and leading the rest of the world to that goal. Weaning ourselves of (Saudi et al) OIL and on to a brighter future.

[Strelnikov_]

32. SUV's will be on sale

Open war in the Persian Gulf region could eliminate 18.7 Mbbl/dy, or 45% of the worlds 2005 petroleum export market.

Overnight, for all practical purposes.

Think we will still be able to import that 12.4 Mbbl/dy of SUV go-juice with the Chinese, Indians, Japanese, South Koreans, Germans, French etc. all using those dollars they have accumulated to bid against us in what remains of the export market.

On the plus side, we still produce a lot of oil (40%) domestically. We won't starve. But with a 10 gal/month gasoline ration, I think you will be able to pick up an SUV cheap . . .

Take a look at the consumption and import numbers. China still produces 55% of their oil domestically, and imports 3.1 Mbbl/dy, vs our 12.4 Mbbl/dy. Take a guess as to who will take the biggest hit (outside the Japanese) . . .

Just something to ponder.


http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy


Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market

18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region


Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0


Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0

[FrenchieCat]

38. We've got to make sure that our politicians know the answers to the "what ifs"

questions.....cause it's nice to say that we won't allow Iran to go Nuke no matter what....

But someone that's sober needs to look at the end game and ask if it's worth it!
Personally, I don't think so.

Article on point...
Iran and U.S. Politics - The Good, the Bad and the Ugly!
http://www.rapidfire-silverbullets.com/2007/01/iran_and_us_politics_the_good.html

[Phrogman]

44. See all those service stations, imagine "no gas today" signs out in front.

and the gasoline that is available going for $10 or more a gallon.

Kinda like what happened during the Arab oil embargo back during the 70's, but a whole lot worse and lasting a whole lot longer.

[lonestarnot]

47. Horses, buggies and tack will suddenly become very expensive.

[Leopolds Ghost]

48. Bad, Bad Things. Once We let the atomic genie out of its bottle there's no turning back

My predictions:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=364&topic_id=2196504

After recent thought about the situation, I stand by my pessimism about the result of a War with Iran being about as bad for this country as WWI was for Germany -- even if they had "won".

[and-justice-for-all]

54. Its not "WE" attacking Iran...

..its "THEM" attacking Iran.

[Terri S]

111. what the hell are you talking about??!!

You think anyone is going to distinguish 'we' from 'them'? If this country sits back and allows this.. the whole world sees it as WE!! It is so f'ing obvious to anyone who has been conscious for the last 6 years that the very same thing is happening now that did in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. The talking points, the propaganda..it's all the same! I was watching CNN yesterday and everyone is talking about how Americans would go along with this because they always believed we should have attacked Iran instead of Iraq... Iraq is unpopular..so let's go with the country everyone is REALLY afraid of. Dear lord! This whole f'ing country is so out of touch with reality..so easily manipulated... we probably deserve the crap that's going to come down.

Sorry...but I am sick to death of hearing it's not 'us'. I'm sick to death of hearing excuses for impeachment being 'off the table'. If this isn't reason enough to drag the administration out of it's comfy bunkers then NOTHING ELSE IS! This is total insanity!! Non-binding resolutions and rhetoric be damned! This new majority we have better amount to more than lip service or we are SCREWED!!!!

[and-justice-for-all]

113. What the fuck are you talking about?!!!!!

It is "THEM"; I didnt vote for this shit, did you!?

"WE" need to get "THEM" off the fucking Hill! I am not associated with "THEM" at all and I think people with half a brain can see that the mojority of the people in this country DO NOT SUPPORT "THEM!"

So yes, I do not consider myself apart Das FuherBush agenda and I think everyong on this board should be telling themselves the same damn thing.

"WE" = the sane majority
"THEM" = the delusional, lost in denial morons aka BushCo.

[yurbud]

55. depends on how well they stage causus belli. even many in military will wonder about another 9/11

I teach research and every semester I have students who have already voraciously consumed all the 9/11 stuff and want to find out how to get more and sift through it. I don't even really sell the topic anymore.

[Horse with no Name]

60. I'm not an authority on the Middeast

but my guess is that China and Russia will back up Iran creating a formidable superpower that we will have difficulty beating.
I wager that the Brits will remain neutral.
It'll be us against the world, literally.
I can see sanctions in our future and the possibility of us becoming very much like Cuba.
We have shipped all of our jobs overseas.

[frogcycle]

63. the fecal matter flies in to the rotating impeller blades

[pinniped]

64. The news turds are really cranking it up tonight.

They said U.S. helos were downed by RPGs made in Iraq and also claimed to have a CD containing Iranian weapon inventories meant for Iraq or some shit like that.

[Pachamama]

65. I see dead people....

...and the whole world condemning us....

:cry:

[Kahuna]

67. Russia and China will not take kindly to an attack. Some way, some

how, they will find a way to pay us back. No matter how long it takes.

[IronScorpio5]

69. Probably wont involve troops.....

but a sustained attack on the nuclear reactor facilities.

[ama]

110. remember the Iran/Iraq war scenario

Imaging waves of 14 year old Iranian martyrs charging into Iraq, followed by Revolutionary guards, followed by the regular Army taking not 444 but 140,000 + the 20,000 ¨surgers¨as hostages? you think * would step down in ´08 if he DECIDED victory was only six months away
quote
So just imagine what the Iranians, the original
Islamic suicide squads, will do when we invade.
There'll be traffic jams, ten-mile backups,
outside every US base, thousands of car bombers honking
and changing lanes trying to get to the front of the line
and make that final commute to Paradise.
It'll be like the San Diego freeway on a Monday morning,
except the fenderbenders will be a little more serious.

The Iranians, unlike the Iraqis,
have always been willing to die for their country.
In the Iran-Iraq War (1980-89) thousands of Iranians volunteered
to charge across Iraqi minefields, knowing they were going to die.

It scared the Hell out of the Iraqis. They threw everything
at those crazy Persian suicide charges, even poison gas.

...........................................
The short version is simple:
Iranians are brave, determined people. Don't mess with them.

Of course all the NeoCon crazies are peddling the old story that
"Once we invade, the people will rally to the cause of freedom."

Yeah. Just like they did in Iraq.

If we couldn't get people on our side after deposing a monster
like Saddam, what chance do you think we have of winning hearts
and minds in Iran?
The kids in Iran are #####ed off at the way the old Mullahs
won't let 'em rock and roll, but the idea that they'll support
an American invasion because they're bored is totally insane
end quote http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi?noframes;read=64478

[Just-plain-Kathy]

70. Kick...n/t

[RedStateShame]

73. Hola, Belize!!!

I've heard it's a beautiful nation, and that its parks are suitable for camping. I'll probably need to take a few language classes.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

79. Actually, it's more like "Hello there, Belize!"

It's a former Britiish colony, and they speak English.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

74. Economic sanctions on the U.S.?

Unlike, say, 50 years ago, that would hurt our economy tremendously, since we hardly make anything here anymore.

[EVDebs]

77. US-GDP/World GDP

World GDP vs US GDP
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

$12,455,068 millionUSD /$44,454,843 millionUSD -- read as 'trillions of dollars'.

So, with 28% of the world's GDP, I don't think sanctions by the UN is going to be pursued unless it leads to sustainable economic measures such as alternatives to oil and coal as fuels 'of the future'. China and India certainly seek US style economies, yet this is't feasible and is a chimera they seem to put faith in.

Everyone's running out the clock in a kind of cosmic 'two minute drill' but no one is acting in the world's collective interest. The 'A Beautiful Mind' syndrome, indeed.

[The Stranger]

76. The Democrats will pass another non-binding resolution two months later.

[spinbaby]

82. My guess

I'm betting that if we bomb Iran, Iran will swarm into Iraq. After that, it will get bad.

[XemaSab]

86. We're totally f***ed.

We're already totally f***ed, but this would be the End Of America f***ed.

What happened to the Soviet Union? What happened to the British Empire? What happened to the Romans?

We would pour our people and our resources into fighting these wars on a scale beyond the Americans in WWII. It would be closer to the response of the Germans by the end of the war... sending 14 year olds out to the front lines. And we couldn't back down, because we're living in an age where these people could theoretically attack us if we provoked them enough. Any idiot can make or buy a missile. Also, we would be totally alone. Even our closest allies, such as Canada, would blow us off, especially after waves of dissidents started flooding across the border.

Good times.

[Bushwick Bill]

87. War games show sobering results.

Soldiers, spies, and diplomats conduct a classic Pentagon war game-with sobering results.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_04/110904C.shtml

[lectrobyte]

88. Iran has 140,000 American hostages. Even American Conservative

magazine thinks it's a bad idea.

http://www.amconmag.com/2006/2006_12_18/article.html

[Norquist Nemesis]

89. The first thing that will happen is Iraq will side with Iran. n/t

[roamer65]

90. World War III.

Attacking Iran will be the catalyst for it, much like when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was killed just before World War in Bosnia. Countries just like then, will start to pick sides and begin "the rumble". Sorry, but Russia and China will not sit it out. The SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) will side with Iran. I think initially the Europeans will try to sit this one out.

[lectrobyte]

92. An oil shock even worse than the 1970s?

[dysfunctional press]

94. just make sure that your gas tank is as full as possible at all times

maybe even fill a few 5-gallon cans in the garage.

especially now, when you can find it for less than $2/gallon.

[mainer]

95. What will happen

1. We attack Iran.
2. China, pissed off, calls in U.S. debts.
3. The U.S., unable to comply, defaults.
4. The dollar plummets, world financial markets are in chaos.
5. Game over for US.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

96. We attack Iran, Iran and Syria attack Israel.

Quite possibly with chemical and biological weapons.

Israel responds with nukes.

WWIII.

Everybody dies.

[HappyWeasel]

98. The aftermath could just look like-

http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-2023790698427111488&hl=en-GB


Who knows, maybe the roots of a new civilization will emerge as this civilization is nearing its end.

[liberalhistorian]

99. Well, we make Israel happy by doing their

bidding, (never mind that we keep that nation afloat with our tax dollars), and that's all that really counts, isn't it? :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[blues90]

105. Good question , real good question

Since it looks highly likey from all the talk and bush keeps pushing the threats I suppose we will soon find out .

Perhaps it will be WW III and many of us will be vaporized or revolt and be taken to camps to spend what time we have left .

Many seem to feel we don;t already have cells within the US , well the US is a big place and we have little security measures other than air ports and this is not the only way in to this country .

[mainer]

108. China will call in US debts in response.

The question is -- will we default on our loans? And bring financial markets down around our ears? Will Bush destroy the US economy to have his little war? Will Wall Street let him?

[Disturbed]

112. It will not happen.

The Busholini Regime would be taken out of power at the first hint of an attack upon Iran. This is saber rattling in order to get Iran to compromise and negotiate.

[LynnTheDem]

118. Slaughter. Including tens of thousands of US troops.

Iran; A Bridge Too Far

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article7147.htm

[koopie57]

119. I think that is it time for impeachment

He admitted to spying without a warrant and that would be reason enough to start proceedings. And since so many seem to be jumping ship and want out of there it could be possible.

[mdmc]

120. kick