A very interesting unintentional consequence if Utah gets a 4th congressional seat.

[Drunken Irishman]

As you know, it's very likely Utah will get a 4th congressional seat when the 2010 Census is officially finished.

Most probably assume it'll automatically go Republican. It probably could. However, the current plans also suggest the current second district (represented by center-right Democrat Jim Matheson) would become far more liberal than it currently is - which would force either Matheson to the left or force him out.

Here is a map that was endorsed by our former governor, now in the Obama administration, Jon Huntsman:



I know most have no f'n clue what county is what or where even Salt Lake City is located on this map.

The 2nd district incorporates the following counties:

Morgan
Salt Lake
Summit

Salt Lake County, home to Salt Lake City, is the county that is split between the 2nd and 4th seat.

The part in the newly formed 2nd district contains the most liberal part of Salt Lake County and Utah (Salt Lake City - if you'll remember, we elected Rocky Anderson twice).

Summit County is also home to Park City - which rivals Salt Lake in terms of liberalism.

Here is the breakdown of each county and how they voted in the 2008 presidential election:

Morgan: 79% for McCain
Summit: 57% for Obama
Salt Lake: 49% for Obama

Obama won two of the three counties in this proposed second district.

Now Morgan is a very conservative county. But it's also a very tiny county. It's only got 7,129 people, compared to 29,736 for Summit and over one million for Salt Lake.

Salt Lake went 49% for Obama, but Obama generally faired worse in the south-end of the county than he did up north where Salt Lake and its older, more blue-collar suburbs are located.

The south-end isn't part of the proposed 2nd district.

The original second congressional district looked very much like the proposed one. Unfortunately, I can't find a map of what it looked like - just that it incorporated all of SLC before gerrymandering divided the city & county up. In the 1996 election, Rocky Anderson lost a race for congress in that seat 55-42. Had that race happened today, he would lose by a huge margin because most of the district today is conservative and rural (which explains Matheson's right-ward tilt).

Ideally, Matheson would decide to not run for re-election when the new congressional district is created and allow the Democrats to nominate a far more liberal candidate who could win. Then Matheson could theoretically run in the newly created fourth district, which is very similar to the makeup of the current second congressional district.

That would give Utah two Democratic congresspeople and two Republicans. One would obviously be moderate, but he could be balanced out by a far more liberal candidate (say Rocky Anderson) in the newly updated 2nd district.

I believe Salt Lake City - the city, not the county - went overwhelmingly Obama in 2008. As you can see, so did Summit County. Those vote totals would easily offset any gains made by Republicans in the minimally populated Morgan County (only 4,021 people voted in Morgan County during the 2008 presidential election).

What does this all mean? Well if the district as proposed by Republicans here in Utah happens when the state receives its fourth congressional seat - I believe it could be won by a far more liberal candidate than Matheson. It also offers up the opportunity of getting another Democrat from the state if it's a moderate with good standing state-wide (since the fourth seat would take in part of Salt Lake County). Though that might be stretching. One of the best case scenarios, though, is a more liberal member of congress.

[napi21]

1. I'm not questioning your statement, but how in the world is

Utah getting another seat? Are there really that many people moving there???? I LOVE Salt Lake, but not enough to move there!

[Drunken Irishman]

2. Utah was the fastest growing state in 2008.

[napi21]

3. Are all the Mormans mving there? If not, is it possible that

many of the new residents just might be Dems? (Hope, jope, hope!)

[Drunken Irishman]

4. It's a mix.

I think many LDS folks are leaving the state or staying put. Not many move here. A lot of our population growth has come via old folk and Hispanics.

That and the fact we have the largest baby population in the country. When you're pumping out children, your population tends to grow really quickly.

[notesdev]

5. All those people leaving CA

need to go somewhere... and Nevada and Arizona ain't looking too great

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Salt Lake is often called a suburb of LA.

Most of our Hispanic population came from SoCal.

[Hekate]

7. Niiiice. I hope that comes to pass. A couple of my nephews-in-law have moved to Utah...

... with their young families. I forget which part, but very conservative. And they've discovered their inner redneck--ugh. I don't think that makes my SIL very happy, but what can you do.

Salt Lake City, though -- they elected Rocky Anderson. They have not one but three Buddhist monasteries of various denominations. They have an active anti-war community. The Mormon Temple may dominate SLC, but it is by no means the whole story.

Hekate

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Lots of rednecks here...

Especially in the south-end of the county. Don't run into many in Salt Lake.

We're a pretty liberal city, though. Elected a Democrat as mayor since the 70s and have a very small LDS population.