What are the chances of a Democrat winning Bunning's relinquished KY Senate seat?

[brentspeak]

Who do the Democrats have in mind for 2010?

[ORDagnabbit]

1. kentucky is for the most part a bassackards state and the chance is little to none. n/t

[brentspeak]

2. The Democrats could have a message: "Vote GOP, and watch as your unemployment benefits are denied"

Not to mention a lot of other things.

[Warpy]

6. There are historical reasons it's solidly Republican

that go all the way back to the Civil War. They have long memories of what the local Democrats did to them if they didn't volunteer to fight for the continued wealth of the flatland slave holder.

But yes, institutionalized poverty and ignorance have kept them backwards and living in the past.

[PhilipDC]

11. Not historically Republican

"There are historical reasons it's solidly Republican that go all the way back to the Civil War."

This is completely false--KY was a solidly Democratic state until about 20 years ago. Granted most were conservative Democrats like most Southern states, but before McConnell was elected in 1984, the entire KY delegation was Democratic except Hal Rogers.

As someone living in DC, but born and raised in Louisville (one of the few somewhat progressive pockets in KY), I hope Attorney General Jack Conway beats Mongiardo in the primary and goes on to beat Paul or Grayson in the general election.

[Jennicut]

3. -15%? It's Kentucky, after all.

I have nothing against liberals who live there but it is mostly a very conservative state.

[KingFlorez]

4. I think there is an outside chance

The likely Republican nominee, Rand Paul is very libertarian and Kentucky is a state that relies on many services that he would vote to cut, if the Democrats can make an issue of that, the odds improve.

[nonconformist]

5. Our current Democratic lieutenant governor, Mongiardo, almost won that seat back in 2004

Had it in the bag until the results from western Kentucky started pouring in. He is running for Bunning's seat again.

Democrats have the governorship and the state house, but don't let that stop people from trashing Kentucky left and right on here.

[Captain Hilts]

7. They're actually surprisingly good. My firm used to do a LOT of polling in Kentucky

I refuse to say 'KY', and things have really turned.

[gmoney]

8. Didn't Nick Clooney give Bunning a pretty good run last time?

With help from doting son George? If Nick isn't fighting against incumbency, he might stand a pretty good chance.

[nonconformist]

10. No, Clooney ran for a seat in the Kentucky House, you're thinking of Daniel Mongiardo

Who is now the lieutenant Governor. Mongiardo will be running for the senate seat again.

[gmoney]

13. My bad... maybe I'm just remembering George Clooney campaigning against Bunning?

My memory is probably as bad as Bunning's these days...

[Soylent Brice]

9. after the rapture comes. n/r

[The Northerner]

12. I don't know. The polls seem to be quite disappointing

It'll take a lot more work, which I hope the KY Dems can muster:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky,_2010#General_election_polling

[TheKentuckian]

14. Not as bad as some might think

but the problem is almost all of our pols that run statewide are very similar policy-wise regardless of party, Democrats are a little bit more moderate socially and a few are nanny statish but they all are very corporate friendly.

Still, I guess it's better than reloading the GOP.