Breaking - unemployment rate remains 9.7%

[malaise]

PHEW!

[babylonsister]

1. While this still is bad, I read yesterday all the dire predictions

that this was going to skyrocket. What happened? :shrug:

[lunatica]

2. Next month they'll revise the numbers upwards

like they've been doing all along. They think we won't notice, and for the most part they're probably right. Color me a bilious cynical. What in the world makes us think they're so honest that they wouldn't ever fudge the numbers?

[Statistical]

8. They actually revised the losses downwards (as in less job losses).

[AllentownJake]

15. That seems to be bullshit based on the ADP numbers which went upward

I look at income tax collections and sales tax collections, it is the one data point they haven't figured out how to 1984 yet.

[livetohike]

3. The pundits (who want bad news for the Obama administration)

were wrong as usual. A loss of 70,000 jobs was expected and it was almost half of that at 36,000 job losses. Perhaps next month, there will be positive job growth :-).

[malaise]

9. LOL

Hence the PHEW!!! They did not get what they wanted but you know them - they'll find some way to spin this for themselves and their ReTHUG bosses. :hi:

[Atman]

4. Horrible news! Devastating!

At least that's what Morning Schmoe was screaming all morning.

Also, new jobless numbers lower than expected. Do you think now Joe's going come back and say things appear to be getting better or at least stabilizing? Of course not.

In fact, he did his best to shut down Mika when she suggested that a victory for Obama on HCR would be huge and would change all the negative talk about him; nope, Joe wouldn't hear of it. That would be the WORST possible thing for the likes of Joe an his fellow Republishmucks. Must...not...Obama...succeed! What's good for America is BAD for the GOP!

.

[AllentownJake]

11. What was the numerator and the denominator

Everyone needs to realize, good or bad the percentage, is nothing but an expression of those two numbers.

Also, the BLS reporting is nothing but a large telephone survey that measures no real data other than answers to phone conversations.

[malaise]

12. Joe Scum will find some way to spin this

in his favor or move on to the next stupid prediction. He's a shameless ReTHUG hack.

[ThomWV]

5. I presume that is "seasonally adjusted" and also takes into account the February Storms

because weather held down employment during February, so if the number held fast, that means unemployment actually decreased.

[Statistical]

13. Seasonally adjusted doesn't account for weather.

So the weather probably made numbers look worse than normal. Govt couldn't say by how much though.

Seasonally adjusted is pretty simple.

They look at last 20 years on monthly basis. Then sum up all the Jan numbers, the Feb numbers, the March numbers, etc.

Some months are higher than others. They calculate the adjustment to normalize those. That adjustment is applied to current raw data.

So if (and I am just pulling this out of my hat) historically December is high employment (7% above average) they revise any Dec data down 7%. If April is low employment (4% below average) they revise any April data up 4%.

[AllentownJake]

23. The weather argument is such fucking bullshit

The PA unemployment office was open the next day after both "blizzards" which were tame to what we had in the 1990s. If anyone was stopped from being hired it was by a day. Companies were up and functioning the day after the blizzard in the mid-Atlantic including their HR departments.

Construction jobs, don't increase in that region normally in February. Simply put, no matter how much snow you get, the ground below the snow is generally hard regardless of precipitation patterns in February.

Honestly, you are smart, I expect better from you to believe this blizzard nonsense.

[KharmaTrain]

6. Mixed Emotions...

This number is good considering that there's a natural drop off in jobs between December and January and then stabilizes in February before rising again in March. So on the surface, the "bleeding" has stopped and what losses are now occuring are "seaonal" or incidental; not the large drop we saw the past two years.

The bad part is the economy remains stagnant...there are few signs that the credit crunch is letting up and money to fuel new businesses and jobs can flow. If anything, there are signs that the worst still lies ahead...the banks and government are frantically kicking cans down the road to prop up the markets. Commercial and personal defaults remain a serious problem and as long as people and businesses face bankruptcy, you can't expect an economy to grow.

The problem remains the banks and government prefer to paper over the fundamental corruption of the economy and do so at all of our peril, including their own.

[malaise]

10. We all know this is not really news

It's only important because, yet again, it fucks up the M$Greedia hacks who predicted devastating news. :hi:

[AllentownJake]

14. Like Larry Summers nt.

[malaise]

16. I didn't hear his prediction

He should know what he's talking about.

[AllentownJake]

18. Larry has failed at everything he's ever tried

but still manages to get a paycheck. The man knows nothing.

[AllentownJake]

7. Now time for AllentownJake to explain BLS statistics to idiots. nt

[ipaint]

17. The U6 number is up again to 16.8%. nt

[AllentownJake]

19. Well there is where they hid people nt.

[ipaint]

21. The numbers are getting worse for the long term unemployed,

the "part time but need full time" workers, and discouraged workers. There is an ever increasing pool of people who cannot find work or enough work.

Most jobs added where temp service jobs.

[AllentownJake]

22. Income tax collections were abysmal in January

I pretty much look for flows of revenue. The phone survey they do once a month is good for propaganda and to look at internals of the polling, after that, there is very little useful information there.

[Jakes Progress]

20. I fear that is a figure we will wish for next year. nt