Once Again: Fewer Working But Unemployment Rate Not Up

[MannyGoldstein]

From: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4294923

"U.S. nonfarm payrolls declined for the 25th time in the past 26 months, falling by 36,000 in February to 129.5 million, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Job losses were concentrated in construction, schools, retail and publishing."

The good news is that bankers got record bonuses with our tax dollars last month - a full 1% of US GDP - so there is a silver lining, chumps.

Go ahead unrec-ers, have at it!

[Craftsman]

1. These booked are so cooked they should come with a wine recommendation

and a side order.

[NJmaverick]

2. You sound disappointed that unemployment didn't go up

[WeDidIt]

5. Either that or he doesn't understand percentages and large numbers.

:shrug:

In an available work force of over 130,000,000 workers, one tenth of one percent will be 130,000 people. 36,000 jobs lost cannot move the percentage rate a tenth of one percent unless the rate was already very close to 9.8%.

I learned this shit in the fourth fucking grade.

[bvar22]

80. Unemployment DID go UP...by 36,000 people.

I'm disappointed.
Are you?

[WeDidIt]

3. There's a reason that the unemployment rate is not up

It's called BASIC FUCKING MATHEMATICS!

In an available work force of 130,000,000 people, in order to shift the unemployment rate from 9.7% to 9.8%, 130,000 JOBS MUST BE LOST In the past two months, not even half that number have been lost.

[AllentownJake]

6. Classification

The reason we are not at 10% which we were at the end of December is how people were classified.

Want to argue math, I'm all for it. How you count someone initially is every bit as important as the numerator and denominator.

U6 number increased. Let's talk Math.

At the end of the day we are arguing over a poll. Income tax revenues were down again in January.

People are either cheating on their taxes by not making their payments or making less money.

BTW the two ton gorilla that understands this shit is here today

:hi:

[Donnachaidh]

19. isn't it funny how some posters who probably work in businesses known for cooking books

suddenly become math whizzes?

If the numbers weren't cooked, we'd be seeing much higher figures.

But if that was the case we wouldn't be seeing bailouts for all the corporations that caused the massive economic downturn because of their crooked deals.

[AllentownJake]

24. Statement of Cash flows doesn't lie

and the best measure of cash flows for the government is Sales Tax revenue and Income tax receipts. Both of which have been declining steadily for over a 2 years.

People are either cheating on their taxes or spending and making less money.

[dmallind]

And the direct link to unemployment would be......?

Is it possible to be employed for lower income (or rather more relevantly to current income tax receipts run a business that is generating less revenue)? Is it possible to spned less while still employed or in business? Is the correlation between these numbers 1.0?

[AllentownJake]

36. Deflationary debt crisis

People working harder for less...would you like to argue this is a good or bad thing.

[dmallind]

40. I'd like to argue it's not all that linked to unemployment rates, which is the topic here

Do you disagree? Show me the correlation.

[AllentownJake]

43. What I'm saying

Is that the U3 and U6 numbers don't really mean that much. There is some useful data in the report but it is not in the final number that people celebrate or get upset about on here. That number is a number for dumb people.

Anyone who reads polling data, mostly spends their time on the internals...on here we argue about the final number endlessly.

[dmallind]

49. So OK - let's talk internals

Let me guess you'll spin manufacturing gains as a blip and worry about construction as the "real" indicator, right? There is no massive move in either direction wherever you look. We aere seeing no great decline and no doom awaits. We are seeing milling about waiting for a weak recovery to strengthen.

[AllentownJake]

51. I haven't read the internals yet

and I'm not going to comment on something I haven't read. I've been too busy arguing with people like you who wish to put words into my fucking mouth over whether the final number has an relevancy.

[dmallind]

53. Of course it's OK for you to think I have "Stockholm suyndrome"

but not OK for me to ask you to define a MOE or point out that the realtive measure of a consistent telephone survey is meaningfu;?

oookayy......

[AllentownJake]

58. When I say the final number is meaningless to begin with

and the internals is where you get good information.

What does that have to do with MOE? Why would I go there, when my argument is the statistic measures little economic health to begin with.

:rofl:

Honestly, you think I'm going to get into a rhetorical trap arguing over the MOE of a number I say gives little useful information to begin with?

[dmallind]

64. Was it meaningless when it was shooting up?

Or is it only meaningless when it's not screaming "doom! Doom!! Doooommmmm!!!" like you want it to? The topic of this thread is unemployment. It always has been. Let's talk GDP if you want economic health eh?

And yes by the way you started getting all prissy about it being a manioulated telephone survey so I think you DO care about the final number as long as you can bully people who don't know about it and pretend you alone know the secrets of the real doom behind the "faked" numvbers. I just am willing to call you on that idiocy. If it doesn't matter shut up about it!

[AllentownJake]

65. If the government borrows money and spends it

GDP will go up...it has to. Was any wealth created...nope it's a loan and has to be paid back.

If the government prints money and spends it, GDP will go up. Was any wealth created..nope.

If I give a trillion dollars to Bill Gates and say build a pyramid to yourself GDP will go up. No wealth created but we will get tourism dollars in 2000 years.

Devil is in the details

:hi:

Deflationary debt crisis...bailing out the creditors is the worse thing you can do for the lower 99% of the population.

[WeDidIt]

23. The way people are classified has been in effect for years

In order to compare unemployment today to unemployment five years ago, the way workers are classified cannot be altered.

So your bullshit don't fly.

[AllentownJake]

26. Cash Flows don't lie

Are people cheating on their taxes or are they spending and making less money?

Continue to argue over your telephone poll. I'll look at revenue.

[WeDidIt]

28. Classic redirect

When called on bullshit, change the topic.

:eyes:

[AllentownJake]

32. Not a redirect

I stated you are arguing over polling data in a manipulated final statistic for propaganda purposes that has been manipulated by administrations going back to Eisenhower.

The internal information is useful, the final numbers other than to communicate to uneducated proles is toilet paper.

[WeDidIt]

37. Pure and simple, a redirect

We're talking the unemployment rate and now you're spouting conspiracy theories about data manipulation.

:eyes:

:tinfoilhat:

[AllentownJake]

42. No conspiracy theories

The final number is meaningless and has been changed for the past 60 years to make the government look better in both democratic and republican administrations.

People in power like reports they issue to make them look good...no conspiracy there.

[dmallind]

44. You'd think they would have avoided telling us about teh millions of jobs lost then eh?

I mean these same evil crooked manipulators were telling us we were losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month quite recently. Did they want to look bad then just so the current evilly crookedly manipulated numbers look good in comparison? These are particularly obtuse evil crooked manipulators aren't they?

[AllentownJake]

46. Is that what I said?

I swear the Stockholm syndrome on here is deafening at times.

[dmallind]

52. Ok so you didn't say the numbers were manipulated? Really?

By definition taht would make them at least crooked, and evil is hardly a major stretch for a government that lies to its people about something so basic for so venal a reason is it? So which part was wrong? Evil a bit strong maybe? OK we have obtuse malign crooked manipulators then.

[AllentownJake]

59. Of course the number is manipulated

The entire seasonal adjustment thing is to prevent stupid people from going crazy when they see construction jobs go down in October.

This number is a propaganda device and always has been. The useful information is in the details.

All changes in the number have been made to make the current administration look better since the 1950s. Why would the government issue reports to make itself look bad :rofl:

For some reason, they tend to be honest about what goes into the internals...probably because, the stupid like the pretty one number to understand the world and talk about it.

[conscious evolution]

62. Not exactly true

You seem to be assuming that the goverment never lies or fudges facts.
They have been fucking with the numbers and classifications since reagan.
There is a book,written back in the eighties,called Lying With Statistics.One of the case studies in this book is how reagan changed the way unemployment was calculated then used the new figures as proof that trickle down worked.
Every president since has done the same.
I highly recommend this book.It explains how goverments,institutions and people use(mangle)statitistcs to support whatever issue they are advocating.

[laughingliberal]

60. So much clearer than a screaming, profane headline. Thanks!

Amazing that Democrats perfectly well understood and, rightfully, were angered by Bush's tricks to downplay unemployment statistics but now it's A-OK.

[Subdivisions]

81. ...two ton gorilla?

That understands this shit?

Sorry, I just woke up and am a little slow on the uptake.

[dmallind]

9. Well not only that but as has been pointed out dozens of times

These numbers come from two completely different surveys with completely different methodologies. One is not "right" and the other "wrong" either. Although doomers will always pretend the worse is more real, whichever that is any given time.

Both are incomplete guesses. Jobs lost/gained comes from asking ONLY bigger companies whether they emply more or fewer people. If smaller companies are hiring more than this, jobs will be understated, If smaller companies are hiring fewer than bigger ones, jobs will be overstated. There is no consistent direction or factor to this.

Unemployment rate comes from calling tens of thousands of random households all over the couintry and asking how many people who want to work are doing. With a sample size that big the MOE is very small but of course is never zero, and all the problems of sampling exist.

[WeDidIt]

34. But the alarmists have to rail against something

Now that Bush is gone, Obama gets their ire.

Same shit, different person to direct the shit at.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. U6 Went Up From 16.3% To 16.8%

That seems to be the more meaningful number.

Could you imagine if everybody who quit looking got back on the rolls?

[dmallind]

11. Was U6 the right number when it went down too?

Used to be 17.5 right? Does that mean it's getting better still? You can't have it both ways.

[AllentownJake]

15. This is a telephone survey

You are essentially arguing over polling data, and how the pollster decides on where to put people.

Hard numbers.

Income Tax collections are still down and declining. Sales Tax revenue, still down and declining.

Either people are cheating the tax system, or less people are working and spending.

[dmallind]

17. Ermmm.. yes. A consistent telephone survey. What's the MOE in your view and why? NT

[AllentownJake]

22. The useful data in this survey is in the internals

The end statistic the U3 number, which has been manipulated in what is included by administrations dating back to IKE is propaganda for the unthinking uneducated portion of the populace.

I'll read the internals later and get back to you.

[dmallind]

25. I can read them myself. Little buit of minor good. Little bit of minor bad

Nothing dramatic either way. Which is just about the type of low level variation you get when a trend is reaching equilibrium before it changes direction.

Tell me in what DIFFERENT way is the U3 "manipulated" compared to when it was above 10% a few months ago? Are relative measures not useful? Or should we chase our tails whining about impossible to verify absolutes?

[AllentownJake]

29. It is a telephone survey

It is based on no real economic information.

Income tax receipts are down. Sales tax revenue is down.

People are either cheating their taxes, or the numbers reflect the real economy.

[dmallind]

33. Unemployment rate = tax receipts?

Ermm... I think I pointed that out first in thsi thread, why do you keep telling me as if I didn't know? What's the MOE on that sample size?

I mean sure huge changes in both probably go in the same direction but at the noise level we are at what's the coefficienmt of correlation d'ya think?

[AllentownJake]

38. I answered you up thread

Classic deflationary debt crisis.

People working harder for less money with less jobs available. The government has done the worst possible thing...it bailed out the creditors...there will be a new crisis, and it will be coming rather quickly and surprisingly.

[dmallind]

41. And again - what does that say about the topic at hand?

WHY does whatever you think is the current doom scenario mean the UE rates are incorrect in any meaningful way beyond the normal margin of error?

[conscious evolution]

70. I would have to think the MOE is very,very small

compared to the MOE of a phone survey.
Counting the number of this months tax reciepts and comparing them to last months is third grade level mathematics.

[dmallind]

12. Was U6 meaningful when it went down too?

U6 was 17.5 recently - so that means it's better now, right? Or is U6 not the meaningful number after all?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. It's Better

But when you and your fiancee are unemployed and the wolves are at your door a lot of this statistical movement is just noise.

[dmallind]

20. And of course on a personal level that's more important, but anecdotes do not refute data.

On either side. Millions of people got jobs and millions of people lost them last month. Reality is teh same for both groups regardless of their experience, however significant the latter is to them.

[MannyGoldstein]

84. Reasonable Point, But Last Month...

jobs decreased and unemployment decreased as well. That math's a little tougher to crack.

[tavalon]

87. Well, I'm sure all of those people who are no longer working

will be relieved.

[change_notfinetuning]

4. We railed at Reagan Math and Bush Math. I think we're seeing some of the

Obama Math at work. No reason to let it slide just because it's Obama or a Democrat.

Chumps, indeed!

[WeDidIt]

8. It's not Reagan Math, Bush Math, or Obama Math. IT'S BASIC MATH!

Divide 130,000,000 by 1000 to come up with the number of job losses to move the unemployment rate by one tenth of one percent.

The answer is 130,000.

36,000 jobs were lost.

Now, if they reported the unemployment rate to one one hundredth of a percentage point, we'd see some fucking movement. But that would just be silly.

[NJmaverick]

13. Yes if reality doesn't match your beliefs it must be reality must be wrong

:eyes:

[change_notfinetuning]

45. If you think 9.7% has anything to do with unemployment reality, could you

pass what you're smoking this way?

[Donnachaidh]

21. definitely seeing some math that doesn't smell right. n/t

[dmallind]

27. Which of these two completely different surveys troubles you?

Or should there be complete lockstep in both of them? Why?

[laughingliberal]

66. +1 nt

[asdjrocky]

7. Good times.

Temporary lay offs.
Good Times.
Easy credit rip offs.
Good Times.
Scratchin' and surviving.
Good Times.
Hangin in a chow line
Good Times.
Ain't we lucky we got 'em
Good Times.

I feel so lucky.

[sendero]

14. U6...

... is the only number that matters. End of story. 16.8% or 17.9% depending on whether you want seasonal adjustment or not.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

[AllentownJake]

18. None of these numbers matter

It is a fucking monthly poll. There is no real data other than telephone responses that back this data up.

[sendero]

31. In that case..

... no poll matters. Sorry, there is mathematical science behind polling.

[ShortnFiery]

39. Depends on the soundness of the methodology. Since Corporate America pulls the strings ...

I'm wary unless such information is fully published.

[AllentownJake]

48. This isn't an election

The internals are where you get good information, the final numbers are absolute meaningless except for people with damaged brain cells.

[dmallind]

55. No it's far more objective

Whether you have a job or not is much easier for even an idiot to answer than which candidate he has never heard of is the one he wants to vote for.

And teh sample sizes are much bigger too.

When can I get that MOE from you?

[AllentownJake]

57. Are we arguing employment or economic health

A person making $7.50 an hour with no benefits at Burger King has a job and have their kids on S-Chip and have no insurance.

Employment can go up to 100% if we make the unemployed slaves.

The type of jobs being created and lost actually does matter.

[dmallind]

61. Like I keep saying - the topic is unemployment.

Nobody is saying everybody is happy and employed to their fullest potential and desire. Since when was that ever true?

But if you want to discuss aggregate economic health then GDP numbers is ths metric - and that's a damn sight more positive than UE numbers so no doubt you think that's wrong too.

[AllentownJake]

68. LOL

Go thank your abusers some more, as for me, I'm stocking up for the crash that follows bailing out creditors in a deflationary debt crisis.

If I'm wrong, the homeless get canned goods.

[nadinbrzezinski]

30. I am sorry to say this, but there are days I don't get people

this is actually GOOD news... but ok. I guess unless we have a system wide collapse and wide spread anarchy some people will never be happy. I mean this means no revolution.

Now I will not be crazy to call this capitalism but that is another story.

[ShortnFiery]

35. Yes, many working Americans are UNDER-employed. But everything is FINE!

[NJmaverick]

47. There are many that stand with you are and equally sorry to see this sort of horrible thing

on a daily basis

[ipaint]

54. LOL. nt.

[ipaint]

50. Since my situation is acknowledged in the U6 number and the U3

number pretends people in my situation don't exist, I'll watch the U6. This months news is not good.

Jobs that would put the long term unemployed back to work are no where to be found. A slight increase in gov. jobs and 45,000 in temp services.

"Construction employment fell by 64,000 in February, about in line with the
average monthly job loss over the prior 6 months. Job losses were concen-
trated in nonresidential building (-10,000) and among nonresidential specialty
trade contractors (-35,000). Since December 2007, employment in construction
has fallen by 1.9 million.

Employment in the information industry dropped by 18,000 in February. Since
December 2007, job losses in information have totaled 297,000. In February,
employment in transportation and warehousing continued to trend down.

Employment in manufacturing was essentially unchanged in February. Small job
gains in a number of component industries were offset by job losses in motor
vehicles and parts and in chemicals.

Retail trade employment was unchanged in February, after a sizeable increase
in January. Over the month, job gains in building material and garden supply
stores (7,000) and in department stores (6,000) were offset by declines in
food and beverage stores (-9,000).

In February, temporary help services added 48,000 jobs. Since reaching a low
point in September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by
284,000. Health care employment continued to trend upward in February.

In February, employment in the federal government edged up. The hiring of
15,000 temporary workers for Census 2010 was partially offset by a decline
in U.S. Postal Service employment."

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[dmallind]

56. But even here good news exists

Temporary hiring is a classic precursor to permanent hiring. Has been for decades. If it were your business and you were seeing strng demand but not sure if it would continue what would you do to meet that demand? If you are rational you would work your current staff a bit longer and use temps where you have no long term commitments to fill teh gaps wouldn't you? So since hours worked and temp labor both went up, what does that mean?

[ipaint]

67. Yes, I've heard that for months now.

The answer to your last question... more workers taking former full time jobs and working harder for less with no benefits or job security.

Weak demand may necessitate a few tens of thousand temporary jobs a month. Strong demand creates real jobs. There is no strong demand. NONE.

The weak demand may come partly from the stimulus, partly from the extensions of unemployment benefits, etc. it isn't coming from any demand, strong or weak, that would result in jobs that pay well with benefits and security.

We lost 8 million jobs and we have 6 million long term unemployed. Most of those 8 million jobs where created by a gigantic credit and housing bubble that popped. There is nothing to replace the bubble. Are the jobs just going to arise from the ashes magically.

We may have reached a plateau on the way down but unless hope, wishful thinking and "look on the bright side" are important to you (stop reading now if they are) we are no where near hitting bottom. A couple more years to get there.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

69. I Think A Fair Assessment Is The Economy Is Flat

Not going up and not going down.

Wake me when employment is < 7%.


In FL they predict double digit employment to 2012.

[ipaint]

76. No jobs and no way to create them. No bubble to ride. nt

[NJmaverick]

71. THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING! THE SKY IS FALLING!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

73. What Do You Say To People Who Can't Find Work And Are In Real Pain?

~

[NJmaverick]

74. This mess was a long time in the making and it is going to take time to fix it

still there is a new job bill that will soon be passed.

[ipaint]

77. Well that oughta pay my rent in a week.

Me and tens of thousands of others. Maybe I'll just suspend existing for the next few years.

[change_notfinetuning]

82. Long time in the making, but it didn't take long for him to fix that for the

Wall St. gamblers who caused the mess.

Oh, but the jobs bill, or something called the "jobs bill", will "soon be passed." Oh, thank you, oh god of hope and change. Thank you for coming to the rescue of the ultra wealthy so they could trickle onto the rest of us and create the Jobs for Peons Program, not to be confused with the Health Care Program for Insurance Companies or the Bush Tax Cut Extension for the Wealthy Program.

[ipaint]

75. Where are the jobs coming from? nt

[invictus]

63. K&R

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

72. Simple solution: Give the bankers all the money and work for nothing.

Everybody will be employed and the politicians can boast about the "recovery".

[ipaint]

78. That's what we are doing. nt

[OhioChick]

79. K&R n/t

[amborin]

83. K&R

[Kip Humphrey]

85. death

[donheld]

86. k & R

[DisgustedInMN]

88. Anyone know if the lipstick...

.. these assholes are putting on that pig is made in China? Who the fuck do these dickheads think they're fooling? (Other than the usual useful idiots.)