Peak Oil Demand Is Coming, But Here's Why It's Not Good News

[FarCenter]

<SNIP>
The fact is that peak demand in the OECD is not merely a function of efficiency gains and biofuels substitution, aided by a temporary recession.

Instead, peak demand will be the result of a permanent state of increasing depression in which non-OECD countries not only more than make up for the loss of OECD demand, but outbid them for the marginal barrel.

As we enter the post-peak phase of global oil supply sometime around 2012-2014, the price that heavily import-dependent countries like the U.S. would have to pay for that marginal barrel will become increasingly intolerable. In a weakened economy, $100 a barrel (or less) could be the new $120.

The true import of peak oil, therefore, may not be sustained high prices, but economic shrinkage. Demand will be destroyed long before oil gets to $200 a barrel, but it will not be destroyed by improved efficiency.

From where we stand today, it’s hard to make an argument for economic recovery. Persistently high unemployment rates, broken state and federal balance sheets, and an inflationary depression will continue to cut into petroleum demand. We spent the last several decades offshoring the fundamental value-adding sectors like energy production and manufacturing, and now our FIRE economy (finance, insurance, and real estate) rests entirely on real value created elsewhere.

<SNIP>

All of which begs a final question: If the answers are transition to renewables, and rebuilding our infrastructure for high efficiency, then where will the money and energy to do it all come from? And how long will it hold out?

Without cheap energy to fuel the growth that is hoped to pay off the accumulated debt, austerity will become an everyday reality, not a short-term fix. A reality that slowly sinks in for the rest of our lives, as net importers become progressively poorer.

The peak demand argument is a good one–but not for the nice reasons.

<SNIP>http://www.businessinsider.com/peak-demand-is-coming-but-not-the-good-kind-2010-3

[kestrel91316]

1. Peak oil has already done in the economy. This whole downhill slide began

with the run-up in gas prices in late 2006, IIRC, at least in CA. The beginnings of the housing meltdown came shortly thereafter. Homes in the 'burbs stopped selling because nobody had the money for those LONG CA commutes anymore.

[FarCenter]

2. Exactly right -- and each time the economy begins to recover, it will hit the limit again

Unless we:
- reorganize housing development around mass transit in higher density neighborhoods, and
- develop energy resources within the United States.

I don't see either of these being done with enough urgency.

[kestrel91316]

4. I've done my part. I live within walking distance of mass transit and

I use it EVERY DAY.

[taterguy]

6. So your part is just delaying the inevitable

You saved the planet a barrel or two of oil.

How long's that gonna last?

Five minutes? I don't know and I don't and I don't feel like looking it up.

But I guess five minutes is a mighty long time if you're doing something fun enough.

:toast:

[Subdivisions]

10. The world consumes 74 million barrels of crude oil per day. If you do the math,

you will discover that about 856 barrels of oil are consumed every second. A quarter of a million barrels are consumed every five minutes. And the rate of demand, though down in this country, is on a world-average increase. Production of oil, that is extraction, is on a downward trend. This is the very ROOT of the premise in kestrel91316's post above, that Peak Oil is the cause of the collapse we are currently witnessing. And it IS a COLLAPSE. First a gradual one, which will then go over a cliff. And we're heading towards that cliff at 120 miles per hour with no brakes. Thelma and Louis-like, even.

[kestrel91316]

11. What would it take to please you??? Suicide?????

WTF is wrong with you?

[taterguy]

14. There's nothing wrong with me. I'm just wondering about the efficacy of individual action

God knows I'm guilty of it myself.

Biking to work in horrendous traffic, and wondering what good it does.

The stats someone posted above seem to indicate not very much.

Maybe I'm just feeling existential.

But I'm open to discussion.

:shrug:

[Subdivisions]

16. You conserve, I conserve, kestrel conserves. It all adds up to slow the descent

that WILL happen. Perhaps working together we can make is a controlled descent and not a cliff dive. The latter, however, is unfortunately going to happen in the face of wide-spread ignorance and apathy and greed and self-absorption.

[kestrel91316]

20. Controlled descent is the name of the game, but I fear it won't happen that way.

Americans (and some other folks, too) are too greedy, blind, and self-centered to make the necessary sacrifices to prevent utter catastrophe. Sadly, many of them are Democrats.

[kestrel91316]

18. Sorry if I seem cranky. Look, I have TWO CHOICES: to use mass transit, or not.

If I don't, I cannot complain about anyone else's failure to do so.

You must BE the change you wish to see in the world.

[Subdivisions]

9. I'm glad to see someone GETTING IT. Especially the fact that, as soon

as the economy REALLY starts to recover, we will bump up against high prices and production limits once again and down we go, even further down than this time. I describe it as a "stair-step descent".

[kestrel91316]

12. Well, given that you see people like me, who are making REAL

sacrifices, as doing nothing, what do you propose? Mass suicide???

[Subdivisions]

15. Hey, wait a minute. I think we're on the same side of this issue. I have also

rearranged my life to eliminate the largest chunk of my fuel consumption. I used to work major construction projects using massive amounts of oil to do my job. Much of the time, I was travelling 100-120 miles round-trip everyday. I have semi-retired from that profession and now I sit at home and make my living selling renewable energy products. I now put less miles on my vehicle every couple of weeks than I did in one day working in construction. And, that's not all I've done.

As for your suggestion that mass suicide is the answer, no it isn't. The decline of this civilization from the efects of Peak Oil will take care of overshoot all on its own. Until then, those not paying attention or not caring will party on. And those of us who are aware will try to offset some of that partying the best we can in order to slow the impending decline of this civilization.

[kestrel91316]

19. I never have suggested mass suicide. Sheesh. I was merely wondering if

that is what it would take to please some people around here.

I am doing my part. I am nearly vegetarian, live a non-consumer lifestyle, have no children, and am car-free for the time being. Those who choose to make no changes in THEIR lives have my contempt. But I won't live to see the worst of the consequences of our society's failure to act.

[David Zephyr]

3. K&R.

Thanks for keeping this before people's eyes.

[cutlassmama]

5. More reason to use/develop alt energy sources.

[Subdivisions]

7. Yea, I read this and decided not post it because I'm sick of the

deniers here that don't have the sense to accept that our civilization is based on a finite resource. I'll still comment on it from time to time. But, I don't post OPs about it much anymore like I used to. Most of us that are PO-aware veterans face the same skepticism when we try to make an issue out of it. And most of us have decided the effort is futile. So, we leave it to the newbs.

[Mike 03]

8. I am with you 100%. It is so depressing it is hard to gather up the energy to even bother

to respond.

And now we have high profile morons like George Noory swearing that thanks to Abiotic Oil there is an infinite supply.

[kestrel91316]

13. You seem to have mistaken me for some sort of PO denier, lol.

That's the only way your nasty post makes any sense.

FYI, I have been screaming about PO for years, just not here on DU.

[Subdivisions]

17. I have not mistaken your stance on PO. I have absolutely no idea how

you got the idea that my post was meant to be nasty. In fact, I haven't posted anything nasty at all in this thread. I've known you on this forum for years and I've known your stance on PO nearly as long. We participated in threads and agreed with each other on this subject many times in the past. This is the second time you've gotten defensive with me. Now I will ask you what you asked someone earlier: What the hell is wrong with YOU?

Edit: Dude, I just went back and read my post that you think I was being nasty in. Geez, all I did was say that I saw the story in the OP and decided not to post it because I didn't have the energy to deal with the deniers who always come along to spout their denials. What gives?

[kestrel91316]

21. From the snarky response to my post about taking mass transit, I assumed

that you considered me a denier.

Me, who hangs out at the PO forum almost as much as at DU these days (but mysteriously cannot post or re-register there - forum is broken, lol)........

[kestrel91316]

22. Oh, and I'm a dudette, lol. All's forgiven.

[Subdivisions]

23. Cool. =). n/t

[kestrel91316]

24. I'm just touchy today, back from a week in exile and ten posts in,

I start getting flamed and namecalled and baited (on another thread) by an obvious troll. I just got pissy and defensive.

[Subdivisions]

25. Been there. Done that. n/t