2010 will be a great year for the GOP? Maybe...but then...

[WilliamPitt]

The Republican Party today stands on the verge of a major political comeback. Americans are frustrated with the pace of economic recovery. President Obama’s approval rating has fallen from the mid-60s to the upper-40s and despite their large majorities in the House and Senate, congressional Democrats have been unable to deliver on some of their key policy commitments including health care reform. According to the latest projections, Republicans are likely to gain at least 25 seats in the House of Representatives and 5 seats in the Senate in the midterm election. A GOP takeover of one or both chambers is no longer inconceivable.

2010 is likely to be a very good year for Republicans. Yet there is a real danger that Republican leaders and strategists will interpret a strong showing in the midterm election as vindication for a strategy based largely on energizing the Party’s conservative white base. That base is indeed energized. But it is also shrinking due to the steady growth in the size of the nonwhite electorate. By 2020 nonwhites will probably make up over a third of the American electorate. Unless Republicans can expand their support among nonwhite voters, they will have to win a much larger share of the white vote than they have in any recent presidential election in order to remain competitive. However, increasing the Republican share of the nonwhite vote would require the GOP to move closer to the ideological center on issues such as government services, health care and immigration—a shift that would be certain to arouse intense opposition from conservative pundits and activists. Regardless of what happens in this year’s midterm elections, Republican leaders will soon face a difficult choice between reaching out to nonwhite voters or continuing to cater to their Party’s shrinking base.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010031101/

The whole article goes into great detail, complete with bar graphs and pie charts and all that good political wonk shit.

I think the point made is indisputably valid. Judge for yourself.

[lame54]

but will our voters show up this time...

not much incentive to

low turnout = repug victory

[FBaggins]

3. That's what I get for typing a paragraph.

Someone with better communication skills comes along and says it as well with four words. :)

Thanks.

[liberation]

13. Exactly!

The problem is further compounded with the prevailing attitude by the DLC of trying to court moderate GOP voters who would never vote Dem no matter what, while at the same time the DLC continues to attempt to beat the liberals into submission by abusing and insulting them.

When you have a Dem administration which has absolutely no interest on standing up for anything that can remotely be construed as "liberal" and a president whose chief of staff feels that naming a big chunk of his party's base as "retarded." I fail to see what incentive any liberal would have to waste their time and effort in supporting a political platform which is not only not interested in a progressive agenda, but is down right hostile to it. And honestly the whole black mail racket of "if you don't vote for us the GOP wins booohooooo" is starting to have as much effect as when Peter cried wolf for the hundredth time.

Although, I have a morbid sense of curiosity regarding which creative excuses and escape goats the DLC et al are going to come up in order to justify the possible electoral clusterfuck they may be visiting on the Dem party. Because lord knows that at this point it is clear the DLC would never consider rethinking their "throw your base under the bus in order to appeal those who would never ever vote for you" strategy as being part of their string of electoral disasters. It must be something else, like... those pesky liberals having and their silly notion of holding politicians accountable.

[mvd]

1. The problem with this country..

is that too many STILL don't know the difference between the two Parties - and even are fooled into voting against their own interests. They vote for change sake, having no idea of the consequences. You'd think they'd know better after Bush. Yes, we'll probably lose some ground, but hopefully we can get on message and get some big accomplishments - therefore limiting the damage.

[Mithreal]

8. +1 Boots on the ground types need indisputable unspinnable big accomplishments

Decisive bold actions that support average Americans are very persuasive.

[FBaggins]

2. Republicans can "mistake" a great many things... but our problems are internal.

Sure... they could wake up with a small majority in a few months and mistake that for "vindication" of their strategy.

The problem is that the REAL reason they will have won (assuming they do) is because a heavy number of Democrats are disappointed (to say the least) with the performance of our elected representatives (sic). If that doesn't change... what does it matter what mistakes the Republicans make?

[kctim]

4. But what number is heavier?

Disappointed Democrats who would vote Republican?
OR
Disappointed Democrats who would hold their vote?

IMO, the Democrats who would vote Republican is larger and the Republican mistake would be to not try and capture that vote but moving towards the center, as is mentioned.

[Mithreal]

9. Republicans don't move toward the center. That is what "NO" means.

Their party cannot be reasoned with or persuaded otherwise. Libertarians have been marginalized and they are pretty easily kept in line.

You really should read Lakoff if you are going to talk about the center.

"There's nothing in the middle of the road but yellow stripes and dead armadillos." - Jim Hightower

The independents, especially those that are not ideological and low information concern me more. The independents that are former Dems, wouldn't doubt if their numbers grow in the shortterm.

In both the cases you described, that is one less vote for Dems.

[Johonny]

5. It's really hard to tell

If Dems pass health care and then spend all summer on economic bills they will look a lot different to voters than they do right now. Remember most voters do not read DU every day, watch the news and really vote about what is happening within the closing months of elections. Republicans tend to be good at passing bills that had negative polling away from elections and then passing bills they could use for election spin during the election season. It's not clear what will be the Democrats summer/ fall agenda. My guess is economics.

[Zoeisright]

6. Well, then the destruction of the country will continue.

They won't be celebrating long.

[opihimoimoi]

7. GOPiacs are Doomers and Gloomers ...exploitors... shallow too

Their scale/level is short term...

We Humans have a chance to survive LONG TERM as a Species

The answers are all there for us to use and implement...but we are blinded by the GOPers and their inane selfish crap most of which is counter productive as ILLustrated by the ignorant brain washed crowd..

We need more Obamas...he is only the incipient, the beginning....as the Tide Turns, the GOP will be caught with Pants Down and very little series ammo....its obvious all they got now is BULLY traits.. all too successful in recent years but failing badly of late..

Their once mighty FEAR FACTOR CARDS are diminishing in effectiveness as the TRUTH emerges...they have become DOOMERs and GLOOMERS...and worse for the GOPers and GOPiacs...Obamas Positive Mode leaves them locked into Negativity with no escape


Obama has a very good Op for addressing much more than our Nations socio/econ problemas....but the Obstinate GOP in their hateful/spiteful ways stifle/obstruct...

They are KILLING THEMSELVES with their own crappy shit...

I strongly suspect the GOP will get their anuses caught under the Rear End of a gigantic BUS this year while Obama gets a reformation/conformation of his Leadership

[deaniac21]

10. In the United States today, we have more than

our share of the nattering nabobs of negativism.

[opihimoimoi]

12. The GOPers take the Prize for Most...their entire Base/Philosophy /Goals are to win at all costs..

win to control of Powerful Positions for nefarious perps

Their lexicon is designed to FOOL

If they can FOOL, They can RULE.

In this day, what with the Internet, its getting Harder and more diff to FOOL as once before

If they cannot FOOL...their Power is diminished to the Losing Side of the Equation....

IE 06 and 08....

This year...it just could be 3 elections running ...in a row....If this Happens, the GOP will be hurt badly,,,, indicating their influence is on the wane...

[offog]

14. I dunno, opihimoimoi.

The Repugs are too good at "messaging" and the Dems are too good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The Repugs also have the money for campaigns. Remember that Supreme Court decision that said anyone can spend as much money as they want on election campaigns? That's going to seriously tilt the playing field.

The big mistake the Obama administration made was trying too hard to be bi-partisan with people who have no interest in being reasonable. For example, the Dems dropped the public option from the health care bill. Without the public option, health care reform is pretty much toothless.

[cornermouse]

11. What recovery?

There has been no recovery around here.