Beyond 2010: Demographic Change and the Future of the Republican Party

[ccharles000]

Alan I. Abramowitz-

Less than 16 months after an election in which Republicans lost the presidency along with 8 Senate seats and 21 House seats, giving Democrats full control of the federal government for the first time since 1995, the GOP appears poised to make substantial gains in the 2010 midterm elections. In the aftermath of Republican Scott Brown’s shocking victory in a special Senate election in Massachusetts a number of prominent political forecasters including The Crystal Ball’s Larry Sabato believe that Democrats could lose at least 25 House seats and 5 Senate seats in November. And those numbers will probably go even higher if the U.S. economy fails to show meaningful growth in the months ahead or President Obama’s poll numbers fall much further. A Republican takeover of one or both chambers of Congress now looks like much less of a long shot than it did just a few weeks ago. Indeed, the closely followed pollster.com average currently shows a generic Republican defeating a generic Democrat for Congress by about 2 percentage points—a dramatic reversal from the large Democratic advantage on this question in both 2006 and 2008.

Given these trends, it is not surprising that many Republican leaders and activists are feeling a newfound sense of optimism about their party’s future. Recent election results, improved polling numbers and the energy coming from the conservative Tea Party movement have reinforced the view of some Republican strategists that the surest way for the GOP to regain its majority status is to stand up strongly for smaller government, lower taxes, and less government regulation of business and to vigorously opposing policies such as health care reform and cap-and-trade that would expand the role of the federal government in the economy.

The Tea Party movement, with its emphasis on strict adherence to conservative principles and its strong backing from Fox News and prominent right wing talk show hosts, has put additional pressure on Republican leaders to avoid any appearance of cooperation with President Obama or Democratic congressional leaders. GOP office-holders or candidates who take moderate positions or hint at any willingness to cooperate with Democrats now risk being challenged in Republican primaries by conservative Tea Party backed candidates.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010031101/

[Skink]

1. It's like we can't wait to give up power.

[woodguy]

2. Hopefully we get some help from

our new citizen immigrants and Republicans are banished forever to less than 40.

I am not loving Obama anymore but any Democrat beats a republican in my book.

[Juche]

3. Meh, it isn't just whites vs. non-whites

One of the biggest demographic challenges facing the GOP is the youth vote. Young people today are overwhelmingly likely to support progressive policy (and the concept that that is a trait of youth isn't true, youth in the 80s were republican).

Millennials make up 1/5 the electorate now (more than the elderly) and will reach 1/3 sometime in the next 10 years. At the same time, the average Fox viewer or talk radio listener is a white male in his 60s and 70s. So within 10 years many of the teabaggers will be dead, and replaced by millennial progressives.

http://www.pensitoreview.com/2009/05/05/average-age-of-fox-news-viewer-is-65/

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/05/millennial_generation.html

You take 10% of the electorate who are elderly teabaggers, and you replace them with millennial progressives and the country will change dramatically.

[Atman]

4. "Much less of a longshot" STILL MEANS A LONGSHOT!

It's all in how you present your case. A longshot is still a longshot. Good for them that it's LESS of a longshot, but it remains a longshot nonetheless. Don't get sucked in by this time of manipulation.

.

[AlinPA]

5. Our control in congress really never happened, even with a strong majority.

The timid Majority Leader hid in a hole and came out occasionally to whimper and to defer to the republicans. He tells the republicans that the senate will go with reconciliation, but they won't because he is not in control. The republicans are.

We kept hearing promises from the Speaker of the House that we were "close" on HCR or that we "had the votes" since mid August but still don't have them. It looks like the house will not move HCR.

Now the majority whip is telling senators to vote against a public option in the reconciliation process.

It will be very bad in November.