Stock Futures Surge on Retail Sales

[Elmore Furth]

Source: Wall Street Journal

US stock futures surged after US retail sales posted a surprising gain in February, despite fierce snowstorms and troubles at automaker Toyota Motor.

U.S. stocks opened higher, as investors were cheered by an unexpected jump in U.S. retail sales last month and a crowd-pleasing nomination for the Federal Reserve's vice chairman spot.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 18 points, or 0.2%, at 10631. Materials and industrials components jumped on the positive economic data. Alcoa rose 1.3%, while Caterpillar gained 1.2%. Retailers also climbed, including Procter & Gamble, up 0.2% and Home Depot, up 0.6%.

The Nasdaq Composite edged up one point, while the Standard & Poor's 500-share index rose 0.1%. Its materials and financial sectors led the climb, while health care and utilities lagged.



Read more: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704131404575117280091499778.html

[ixion]

1. LOL

A sucker born every minute. :rofl:

[NJmaverick]

2. I can't wait to see the sure to follow "ignore the good news, it's really bad" spin

With more and more good news, the spin has gotten more outrageous and amusing.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. The first post didn't even bother with spin

Sometimes, the DU Doomsters think it's sufficient to post LOL.

[AllentownJake]

9. Why is the report good news?

Tell me why this is good news. Articulate it without using the words in the WSJ article.

Tell me which part of the report you like, dislike, and are unsure about. Or does the WSJ do your thinking for you.

It is only about 3 pages, if you want to bash people, please do it intelligently.

[ixion]

11. I look around me and I see a World of Hurt

This is why I laugh, to keep from crying.

However, to articulate the motivation for the response: A (previously) 70% consumer-driven economy is not going to see a rise in retail sales when the consumer is unable to consume.

Better?

[NJmaverick]

15. Yeah that one was just phoned in

[AllentownJake]

7. Why is the report good news NJ Maverick?

Enlighten me.

I want you to tell me which part of the report you like...final number is not an answer.

[NJmaverick]

13. Now that's a novel approach

don't spin it, rather question why rising sales and stocks are good news. Points for originality.

[AllentownJake]

16. Can't answer the question can you?

Stocks rise on lay off news sometimes. That is bad news for some people.

Good is a matter of your perspective as is bad.

Now, I'll go back, please tell me what you saw in the report that gives you hope for the future in your mind, the stock market and rising sales overall is not the answer. It is in there, but let's play a critical thinking skills game.

Do you have the ability sir?

You obviously have some time right now, you are fucking around on here.

There is stuff in there you can extrapolate and say good news about, as there is stuff I can point to, to be contrary. However you always talk about raising the level of discussion...want to raise it?

[NJmaverick]

17. Let me see then if I can teach you why increased sales is good news

See if retail sales increase, then retailers increase their orders and hire more staff. Increase orders mean that manufacturers increase their staffs as well as their orders to other companies (for parts, sub-components and raw material) The increase in sales also increases the tax revenue at the state and in some cases the municipal level.
So the reason stocks rise on news like this, is that it is an indicator that economy and jobs are bouncing back. Some experts are predicting that 300,000 jobs will be created in the private sector in the month of March. With news like this, it would appear those predictions have an excellent chance of being correct.

Any questions?

[AllentownJake]

19. NJ Maverick

Did you read the report?

Seriously for someone who is so "intelligent" I find it really amusing you can't give me an explanation of which sectors saw an increase in sales.

I can make a dozen assertions on showing how increased sales is not a good thing. One would be if the CPI for a sector increases above the increase in sales, which means people paid more for less.

;-)

[NJmaverick]

20. Yes I read the report on Bloomberg, but I find it sad

that you are so blinded by agenda that you are incapable of recognizing good news (this despite claims of a background in the financial sector).

[AllentownJake]

23. I didn't see anything in there to jump up and down about

Auto sales saw a decline as well as other large capital assets.

Slight increase in electronics and furniture but year over year you have a decline.

Biggest increase was in grocery stores, which judging by the behavior I saw before both snow storms, makes the most sense. If the CPI numbers weren't calculated and adjusted right, people bought the same amount of stuff and got less.

Bars are doing good, which is normally typical of a recession/depression period.

Anything else oh wise NJ Maverick?

[AllentownJake]

26. Oh and the biggest thing in there

Kind of Business 2010 % change from 2009

Gasoline stations................................ 61,289 26.4%


;-)

What does that mean oracle.

[ixion]

33. There is no 'news' in that statement, only conjecture

That is: These jobs and sales and taxes of which you speak are purely speculative. That is, they haven't materialized yet.

[AllentownJake]

37. He didn't even bother to read the frakking report

Lazy if you ask me.

[rfranklin]

3. I think that this has more to do with options expiration than actual...

belief that a 0.3% increase in retail sales (which will be revised next month) is a sign of "recovery."

Meanwhile, on the front page of MSNBC directly below this story is

New wave of foreclosures threatens market
Up to 7 million homes are potentially eligible but haven’t been repossessed
By Renae Merle
The Washington Post
updated 5:52 a.m. ET, Fri., March. 12, 2010
WASHINGTON - The housing market is facing swelling ranks of homeowners who are seriously delinquent but have yet to lose their homes, and this is threatening a new wave of foreclosures that could hit just as the real estate market has begun to stabilize.

About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentially eligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale. Some economists project it could take nearly three years before all these homes have been put on the market and purchased by new owners.

And the number of pending foreclosures could grow much bigger over the coming year as more distressed borrowers become delinquent and then, if they can't obtain mortgage relief, wade through the foreclosure process, which often takes more than a year to complete.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35832152/ns/business-washington_post/

[PassingFair]

4. "Shadow Inventory"

In California, these "pending" foreclosures far outnumber
actual homes in foreclosure or for sale.

[AllentownJake]

8. It really isn't that much of a surge

18 points in after-hour trading? .2% is a surge in the stock market, it is generally normal days movement.

The entire article is propaganda with a few facts thrown in.

Come on, it is a Newscorp rag.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ixion]

12. Indeed. So again I say:

:rofl:

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[pampango]

10. Here's the BBC story (on retail sales not stocks): US retail sales rise boosts recovery hopes

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8564711.stm

US retail sales showed a surprise rise in February as consumers braved extreme bad weather to get to the shops. The US Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.3% last month, whereas forecasts had predicted a fall of 0.2%. Parts of America were hit by major snow storms in February, sparking concerns that consumers would remain at home.

The overall gain in sales was held back by a 2% fall in car sales, reflecting in part the recall problems at Toyota. Excluding cars, sales rose 0.8%, far better than the 0.1% rise outside of autos that economists had forecast.

Camilla Sutton, a senior strategist at Scotia Capital, said the sales figures were a further hint "that the US recovery is intact and ongoing". "There's been a lot of worry about how the economy will transition from government spending to consumer spending and we're starting to see some evidence of that," she said.

US consumer spending has been slow as because high unemployment has squeezed household income, leading to worries that the economy's recovery from the worst downturn in seven decades could falter. Higher consumer spending is vital for US recovery because it accounts for about 70% of economic activity.

[AllentownJake]

14. What sectors saw an improvement

Why are you reading the BBC, WSJ, or any other news outlets reporting on the report. It isn't that long and it is right there for you to read. It isn't that difficult to understand.

Listen, if you read the report, and can tell me why you think it is good news, I have no problem with that. Articulate and defend your position. Why are you taking someone else's word on it when it right there on the website, not that long, and not that hard to read.

[pampango]

21. Physician heal thyself. Articulate and defend your position.

In the story is the following quote: Excluding the car sector, all other retail sales rose 0.8%, more than the 0.1% forecasted increase. The retail jump was boosted by soaring electronic store sales, despite blizzards that crippled the East Coast and a 2% dive in U.S. car and parts sales in February." To answer your "what sectors saw improvement" question, electronic store sales is the only sector mentioned at the link in the OP.

If you have read the report itself, kudos to you. If you would rather not share your observations and opinion, I have no problem with that. I do not, however, feel guilt about posting links to other media and their analysis of the story. If you don't agree with them, I have no problem with that either.

Mathematically if cars and car parts sales fell 2%, but overall retail sales rose 0.8%, then there must have been many sectors that rose. "f you read the report, and can tell me why you think it is (bad) news, I have no problem with that." You seem to leave the impression that the rise in retail sales is not good news ("what sectors saw improvement"), but do not site anything from the report to back up your contention. Articulate and defend your position.

[AllentownJake]

30. Educate yourself and get back to me

http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html

People buying more groceries and the year over year numbers are scary. A glitch in the CPI calculation the grocery increase is simply inflation. That combined with the year over year gasoline station. 26.4% more purchases of Gas. Year over year, that is your biggest increase. Gas was 1.91 on average this month in 2009. Do some extrapolation. I paid 2.72 this morning.

Now you see why I think the report is funny :rofl:



NEXT.

[earthside]

22. Pretty funny, the WSJ report has changed ...

... the DOW is down and the Wall Street Journal is now downplaying the retail sales number.

Consumer sentiment is down, inventories are stagnant, retail sales up a meager .3 percent.

Not really any "good news" here ... the economy is mired in unemployment and debt, that's all there is to it.

[NJmaverick]

24. So you think it's bad news because a FAUX news publication has

put a negative spin on the news???:wow:

[AllentownJake]

25. They put a great spin on it this morning

Can't have it both ways

:rofl:

[NJmaverick]

27. Unlike you I don't put any stock in what the FAUX news owned WSJ says

then again I am trying to get to the facts and the truth, so I have no use for meaningless propaganda.

[AllentownJake]

29. I called the WSJ article bullshit first and told people to read the report

:rofl:

What the hell are you talking about.

There is a time stamp on my post, and your hip hip hooray post.

Give you a hint. Mine laughing about the WSJ and all business reporting beats yours.

I went to the report first and made my assumptions.

Now go along and tell me how smart you are some more.

[NJmaverick]

31. Bottom line is increased sales (especially in light of anticipated declines due to the weather

in the NE) is very good news, economically speaking. It's beyond absurd that there are people trying desperately to convince people that signs of an improving economy are bad.

[AllentownJake]

32. I've explained to you multiple times how that assumption is not necessarily true

You have an inability to comprehend that.

There is nothing in that report to say the sky is falling other than the gasoline year over year numbers, and there is nothing to say blue skies either.

If they did the CPI calculation wrong which is highly probable, that % disappears and can go negative.

[earthside]

28. It's bad news because ...

... there is precious little to indicate that the 'Great Recession' is anywhere near ending for working or un-working Americans.

It's not a matter of spin or which 'news' portal reports a statistic here or there, it's a matter of a real 20 percent unemployment/underemployment rate, foreclosures still rising, college tuitions still going up, health insurance premiums going up, incomes falling or flat, etc.

When unemployment/underemployment declines a percentage point in a month or so and we see that it is because manufacturers are hiring and not Wal-Mart, that will be good news.

See the difference?

[truthisfreedom]

34. While in other news, neither WSJ nor faux newz are hiring.

And are expected to be laying off more financial reporters soon.

[TwixVoy]

35. Since when is DOW up 18 a fu**ing "surge"?

[AllentownJake]

36. When the dow is at 100 points

Other than that, it is a normal day at the office.

[TexasObserver]

38. I'm very excited about this.

I've worried that with the bad winter weather so pervasive, we'd have a bad February.

We have to put more people back to work, and this bit of good news comes at an important time on the verge of springtime, when businesses are deciding whether to add personnel or not.

[AllentownJake]

39. Re-read the report

That combined with this which was done by guys smarter than me.


http://www.zerohedge.com/article/debunking-myth-us-retail-sales-improvement

[neverforget]

40. but it surged! the WSJ said so! Oh you mean they left some important

stuff out of that report? I'm shocked! :sarcasm: