The Worst Case Scenario For Healthcare Reform?

[ihavenobias]

Note: I currently don't have health insurance (BTW, I have sleep apnea for which I had surgery a couple of years ago) and as I discussed recently on TYT, my Girlfriend was just denied for a pre-existing condition. She's a 29 year old non-smoker who's not overweight, but she has a common digestive problem that affects 10-15% of Americans. There are no medications she can take or surgeries to have and all the necessary tests have already been done (it's non-fatal), so I can't imagine what expense BlueCross BlueShield of IL was worried about.

I've been arguing for some time that the worst case scenario is to pass a half-assed bill/corporate giveaway and call it reform to placate the masses and score political points in the short run. If this bill passes, the right will STILL pretend it's a Big Government, Socialist, Radical Liberal/Progressive plan when http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_oVK7iXkgo|that couldn't be further from the truth>.

The R's are fighting against this now for all the wrong reasons, but it's a http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWcCfmXqRzA#t=5m43s|political wet dream> for them if it passes because of the mandate, lack of competition and strengthening of the current system. Even the subsidies that some are cheering about will provide amazing political fodder for Republicans to rile up their base (and even many moderates/independents), not to mention the fact that they'll be easy 'cut' targets when the R's return to power at some point. When the "reform" inevitably fails to reduce costs long term, the average American will be rightfully disgusted. The right will pounce (followed by the MSM as always) and blame a failure of liberalism and government intervention (directly and indirectly). If recent history is any indication, existing http://rawstory.com/2010/01/lieberman-democrats-move-center/|Dems will feel compelled to move further right> to stay in office, and progressives and progressive solutions will be even further marginalized.

That means our goal of changing the underlying problems with our healthcare system will be even further away than it is now because while the public pressure you expect would probably come, it would likely be directed at decreasing the role of government, thus ultimately strengthening insurance companies by removing the only check we have against corporate power. Best case is it would return us to what we have now for another 2 decades, and when reform is tried in the future, everyone will point to the failure of Government and Progressive ideas. This is why I reject the argument that passing the bill now provides a base to improve upon. The base sucks, meaning it will only decrease the political will to do actual improvements in the future, because again, even moderates will start to believe inevitable arguments that government/liberal intervention only made things worse. Finally, anyone pointing to Social Security and Medicare as a case for incrementalism ignores the enormous difference in the political climate, media and level of special interest influence then Vs. today.

PS---Out of 100: "...The United States is 23 points behind five leading economic competitors: Canada, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and France. The five nations cover all their citizens, and though their systems differ, in each country the government plays a much larger role than in the U.S..." - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29641091/|The Business Roundtable Report On Healthcare>, 2009 (Represents Top CEOs).

It's not about "purity" or "ideology", it's about what's been proven to work in numerous other countries (and which could easily work here with adjustments), despite what some of our http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gtUYFROnzrg|Democratic leaders claim>.

[Edweird]

1. Worst case is where we are headed...

[Maru Kitteh]

29. Exactly. Worst case scenario is to do nothing.

[ihavenobias]

38. Strengthening the existing system is worse than doing nothing.

Re-read my post, it explains why.

[WattleBreakfast]

72. I mistakenly un-recomended this!

I could not agree more with what you laid out here ihavenobias! How to I change my "recomend"?!

I have never been more proud of this community. WE see this for what it is! Plain bad governance! This bill should not pass for the reasons you outlined. We need real reform.

[Zoeisright]

77. No. If this bill helps some people, then it's not worse than nothing.

Doing nothing will continue to kill 45,000 Americans every year.

[ihavenobias]

79. Short term vs. long term.

I agree it potentially (but not necessarily as I think we'll see) helps in the short term in some areas. The problem is accepting a short term gain for potential long term disaster which will kill far more people. We can't afford to be short-sighted.

I say this as someone with multiple pre-existing conditions and a brutal family history. And as I already stated, I am currently uninsured, as is my GF who was just denied for a BS pre-existing condition. So this isn't some idealist stand for me, this is very personal. I don't want to a short term benefit today if it means far worse disaster 5 or 10 years from now (etc.).

[RaleighNCDUer]

81. Exactly. It's like putting 10 million dollars into raising the levees in

NO six inches, rather than putting 14 million into raising them 6 feet. That extra 4 million could be real helpful in the state budget this year, but when the Cat 5 hits that 6" is not going to help while the 6' might.

This bill raises the levees 6", and worse, it prohibits them being raised any further.

[sabrina 1]

83. No, the more I've thought about it and the more I've read

about what this bill does, the more I think we were better off with what we have now.

The best the defenders of the bill have been able to do so far is to argue that 'it has some good things in it'.

The current system also has 'some good things in it'.

But, the more I understand how it will work, the mandates of course being so anti-democratic is should go without saying, how it is actually a huge transfer of public funds to Big Business, there is no way it is better than the current system for millions who at least were eligible for some public programs. Before these funds began to be transferred to private business, they worked. Now, all that will be managed by the corrupt and failed business known as the 'Health' Insurance business.

This deception will hold up real reform for decades, as it will take time before people actually see it in action.

Republicans of course are against it for all the wrong reasons. But their opposition helps Democrats for that very reason. I see now that the Political Operatives are shifting their focus from slamming Liberals, to trying to rouse up anger at the right.

I have a message for them. Anger at the right never went away. Anger at Democrats doing the dirty work that the Republicans couldn't get done, like this blatant Pro-Corporate, anti-people bill, will increase as more people begin to understand it.

[John Q. Citizen]

2. Our leaders don't want us to have the best. It's simple.

[ihavenobias]

19. Another point.

The Dems/WH proposed a half a loaf solution (public option) rather than a full loaf (single payer). Even a mediocre haggler knows you don't open with the offer you want to end with. So the fact that Dems did this is questionable at best.

You start with single payer knowing full well it would never fly. After all, politically the right and MSM reacted as if the Dems had proposed destroying private insurance, private hospitals, private drug manufacturers, etc. The rhetoric and political damage couldn't possibly have been worse, and yet in the end we get a watered down corporate giveaway/mandate. In other words, it's not only terrible policy, but also terrible politics. Even supporters of the bill have to concede this point.

[John Q. Citizen]

21. Yep, bad policy and bad politics, and they think they earn thier money. It's a joke.

[ihavenobias]

43. Well, it IS good *short term* politics.

Unfortunately some here seem to mistake that with good long term policy.

[Mithreal]

55. +1 mistake or make excuses

Keep hearing folks say if this didn't pass wouldn't revisit for a generation, but what we are being offered isn't even sustainable in the short term.

[rhett o rick]

64. They certainly do earn their money. It's not the money you and I pay them. nm

[ihavenobias]

67. Some will view that as hyperbole, but apparently they're unaware of www.opensecrets.org

www.opensecrets.org

[Skittles]

3. now THAT is someone who truly gets it

but we're fucked - see how many so-called progressives on this board are cheerleading this royal fucking

[polpilot]

26. Spot on!!!!!!

[Mari333]

53. sigh. yes,. it boils down to party politics, like Tammy Wynette standing by her man while he

beats the shit out of her.

[ihavenobias]

62. I honestly used to think that it was mostly Republicans who could be so partisan regardless of facts

Sadly the last year has shown that's not the case. It might not be 50/50, but it's clearly not the 75/25 I used to think it was.

[liberation]

76. They may call themselves "progressives," but they make great "reactionaries"

If some of the posters in DU are the "moderate" ones, I shudder to think how the extreme conservatives must be like.

At any rate, at this point it seems a lot of people have trouble distinguishing between the common good, politics, and sports.

Many people see this as a sort of team sports deal, in which the goal is for their team to "win" (whatever that means)... that does not necessarily imply that the "win" leads to the common good at all (or even close). Rather than putting pressure on our elected officials to do the right thing, these types are willing to put their effort on silencing dissent in order to allow the same public officials to score a cheap political point. It seems they are only interested in getting validation on their choice of horses, via political "victories." Whether that is in their best interest (or ours for that matter) is irrelevant to them...

[ihavenobias]

82. Yes, exactly right about the team mentality.

The key point for everyone should be that political "wins" translate to actual policy wins. If they don't, there's no point.

[jgraz]

4. Painful to read, but dead-on accurate.

Sad day for us. :banghead:

[Lorien]

13. Agreed. K & R!

[theFrankFactor]

5. Precisely! Thank you for getting this out there!

You are 100% dead on man. This is the plan and has been the plan from day 1. A good cop bad cop scenario. Democrats are playing the part perfectly.

[leftstreet]

6. K&R

[defendandprotect]

7. Kill this bill . . . meanwhile, pregnant women in America are morel likely to die

during their pregnancy or in childbirth than if they lived in any other of

40 countries.

We rank 37th in health care and infant deaths are also rising.

We have a system of slash and burn medicine!!

"For profit" health care has to go -- it's a byproduct of capitalism which already sucks!!



Imagine the Repugs getting their hands on this and the possibilities of what they could do

with it if power changes hands!!

[Lorien]

14. And the bill won't decrease that death rate, nor will it stop the families of those women from

losing their homes and filing for bankruptcy when their "bargain" insurance fails to pay for anything at all. Ultimately, it will just accelerate the fleecing without slowing the pain.

[defendandprotect]

39. Yes, yes . . . so sadly true --

[rhett o rick]

65. That's the point. "For profit" health care has to go. This bill strengthens it. nm

[OhioChick]

8. Agreed....Dead on n/t

[kath]

9. Very good post. Painfully accurate.

Any possibility of REAL reform has now been set back by AT LEAST a couple of decades.

We are so screwn.

[CrawlingChaos]

10. K&R

[MedfordTim]

11. Medicare for all

If that had been the focus, none of this circus sideshow crap would have happened.

Oh, yeah...this bill sucks...

[ShortnFiery]

12. +1

:thumbsup:

[bvar22]

15. The sad truth.

Passing this bill, as it is now, is suicide for the Democratic Party.

The bill NOW is essentially a Republican Bill (National RomneyCrae).
It is not even close to what Obama/Democrats campaigned on in 2006, and what many Americans still expect.
The Democrats have given the Republicans almost everything the wanted over the last year, and gained NOTHING...ZERO. The Republicans have gotten what they wanted, and assumed NO Political risk.

ALL they have to do NOW is simply sit back, and when Premiums continue to RISE, say, "Yep. We opposed it. The Democrats RAISED your Premiums, and shoved it down your throats.
ALL most of America will see is their thinner wallets, and they WILL blame the Democrats.

The Democrat's response of, "Yes. Your Premiums have gone up, but not as much as they would have" will be RIDICULED.

Photos of Fat Cat Health Insurance Execs standing in front of their NEW Summer Homes in Aspen won't help either.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

18. I'm surprised at how many Democratic-leaning people I've talked to

THINK this bill will bring European-style health care to the U.S. (I guess that's because the way the righties keep screaming "socialism!" has seeped into their consciousness).

They don't know what's in the bill and are surprised and appalled when I tell them about the mandate to buy private insurance.

[bvar22]

30. The SAME experience here, LL.

Many people I talk to, good, loyal Democrats who consider themselves "informed", have NO IDEA of how far this "Reform" has moved to The Right. Many are STILL under the impression that they will be able to buy in to a "government plan like Medicare". They don't believe me when I tell them.

These are intelligent people who DID due diligence during the election, but simply don't have the luxury of TIME to spend on DU, CSPAN, or other sources. THEY have jobs, and children, and "lives".
They have NOT had the time to follow the slow "Bait & Switch Ballet" performed by the Obama Administration over the last year.

They WILL "wake up" when they see what is really in this plan, and like most of America, they will blame The Democrats too.
But it will be too late.
The door to the Public Treasury will be Wide Open with NO way to close it.

But, of course, it was "All Lieberman's Fault".

You know, it has gotten sooo bad, that I've reached the stage where I'm able to laugh in awe at the precision and magnitude of the betrayal.
After a Beat Down THIS bad, all you can do IS laugh.
We never had a chance.

[laughingliberal]

33. Same here

Which is, likely, the reason for a recent post showing only 3% of liberals oppose the current HIR bill. I'm thinking those are the liberals who know what's in the bill and not in the bill.

We didn't ever have a chance. The march towards corporate fascism takes one giant step forward.

:cry:

[bvar22]

34. But, if you ask those SAME people...

..if they supportMandates without a Public Option,
LESS than 35% will say "YES!"

[laughingliberal]

35. Exactly! nt

[Lorien]

66. Just about every Liberal I know is strongly opposed to any bill without a public option

only about 3% actually favor the bill-but only because they've been working so hard that they don't have the time to really pay attention.

[Hello_Kitty]

80. As for those who support the mandate

The ones I know either have great insurance through work or are on some government plan. They think everyone will get the same quality care they get and for the same low cost.

[ihavenobias]

70. Yep.

And like I said in the OP, the right and MSM will blame the inevitable failure of this "reform" on liberals, progressives and government, when that couldn't be further from the truth. And that will make true reform impossible for decades, because sadly most Americans will be duped by the media.

[20score]

16. Bravo! I am getting more pissed off at those pushing this bill. And they're doing it with insults.

K&R

On edit: I'm floored that people, many of whom laughed at the right for buying into the tax cut BS, don't see this for it is.

[havocmom]

78. not just with insults, but adding tactics used against DEMS/LIBERALS under bush admin

And that is unforgivable to me.

[Wetzelbill]

17. I think in some ways

for some people, it is better than nothing. But really, after a bit of short term political gain, and overall for the American people, it's not remotely good enough. It may even prove to pretty damn bad.

On the politics side of it, this thing never made sense to me and you touch on why. It didn't matter what Obama did, the Republicans were going to call this a socialist, govt takeover and practically accuse the guy of being Chairman Mao and maybe toss in some Hitler allusions to boot. "Hey you know who wanted national health care? I am not saying anything, but Germany in 1933" type of stuff. Obama and congressional Dems came up with a plan more like Romney's in Mass and probably to the Right of the GOP plan in 1993, he threw in age old Republican ideas that people like Chuck Grassley have advocated forever and all of a sudden they are all against it. You knew it was coming. He started off weak by taking single-payer off the table (come on at least negotiate from a place of strength!) and capitulated to drug companies, the industry and their GOP lackeys almost the whole time, and the political opposition slapped him in the face the whole time. I would have liked to see him go for even a little bit stronger of a bill because he was going to endure the same bullshit from the other side either way, and still get zero votes from them. It makes no sense to take the same political hits with none of the added policy benefits. That's one thing that really disappoints me about Obama.

I guess it's like this too. People overwhelmingly elected the guy thinking he was some left-wing senator who had a radical pastor, might be Muslim and could be a commie pinko. I heard one guy on tv who was going to vote for Obama but he was a little worried because he was Muslim. Well, of course, he's not, but this guy and his family were hurting so bad that they wanted the change he was campaigning on and they wanted things to go back to how they had been when we had a Dem president and times were imperfect but pretty good. The American people didn't stutter, they wanted change. I, personally, never felt Obama was the change agent he claimed to be, I knew he was more to the Right than I am, and he could be frustratingly benign on big issues while in the senate. He's not a policy fighter at all. I knew that. But I thought he'd be a little tougher than this and I always basically liked the guy and agreed with his general views. Now what? It looks like he's demoralized his base and especially the energized youth vote and will come close to losing the House and Senate in the next elections. He had a golden opportunity to cement a voting block for Dems, and not he probably lost people from 20-35 years old because they worked so hard for him and now they can't believe in politics anymore. How many of them will give up voting almost altogether? Certainly many will never work that hard for him or another Dem again. This guy came into office with a mandate and lots of leeway and did some good things, but not nearly what he could have done. He's always been frustrating, I'd say get used to it, but that's not what people like us do. I guess getting back to what I started this paragraph on, I just wanted to say, if they already think you're a left-wing radical socialist and they still want you, you don't necessarily have to go out and be one, but you should definitely go out and fight for popular progressive policies that virtually everybody wants, but Obama can't even do that. It's tough to watch, makes me want to pull my hair out. He can't even fight for a compromise on a compromise like say the overwhelmingly popular public option. And why not? No valid reason. Makes no sense.

[libodem]

20. Yep

Sad but true. Money trumps humanity.

[Rhiannon12866]

22. K&R! Excellent analysis!

I don't have health insurance now, either, haven't since 2007, for the first time in my life. I was fortunate to have decent coverage when I had three surgeries between 1993-2000, but now... It's my fear that if this passes, they'll think it's all done, and will be afraid to revisit the issue for another few decades. ;(

[Faryn Balyncd]

23. K & R

:hi:


:kick:

[Kajsa]

24. This is a very good analysis of what this bill contains,IHNB.

K & R

:kick:

[OhioChick]

25. Morning Kick n/t

[pleah]

27. K AND R!

[Enthusiast]

28. ihavenobias, we all have

to judge for ourselves whether or not to support the HCR bill.

The only assholes in this discussion are Republicans and Republicans posing as Democrats.

[fascisthunter]

31. Yes, It's Been Proven to Work, yet those who are part of this corporatist coup

want none of it. They'd rather see us struggle while sick and finally die. Their own wealth is that precious to them.

[Warren Stupidity]

32. 2010-1993=17.

You want to spend another 17 years waiting for the perfect? Fine. I'll be on single payer universal health insurance by then.

[ihavenobias]

36. I don't think you read my post.

You must have stopped halfway through.

[Warren Stupidity]

42. No I read it.

There will be no redo. No reset. No do-over. No Mulligan. Either we go forward with the reconcile repaired Senate bill or we spend another 12-20 years waiting to try again.

[Mithreal]

47. 12-20? Tea leaves or tarot cards? The new will be unsustainable as well.

[FiveGoodMen]

37. Very well put.

It's horribly discouraging that more people -- especially more at this site! -- don't seem to get this.

[CherylK]

40. K & R!!!

:patriot:

[burning rain]

41. I do think some of the more popular reforms will stay.

Americans have appreciated reforms like barring insurance companies from kicking women out of the hospital the day they give birth; surely the preexisting conditions, rescissions, and annual/lifetime caps reforms, all worthwhile, will stick. Whatever happens, I doubt Americans will opt to let insurance companies have everything their own way. Perhaps Republicans will work to repeal the unpopular individual mandate. In any case, I don't buy the rosy eyeglass scenarios of those who say we're going to see improvements to health care made year after year--at least in the near and medium term. Democrats are going to lose seats in November, while we need more seats than we have now, while holding the White House, to pass meaningful improvements--a public option notably. Also, the insurance lobby will have even more incentive to fight further reforms once it has secured the legal entitlement to citizens' insurance dollars. One fights more ferociously to defend one's property than what one hopes to gain. It is difficult to picture us having both the White House and more seats in Congress than we do now in the next 15 years.

K & R, though I do think this poor bill deserves to be passed as an improvement on the even worse status quo.

[GreenArrow]

56. "I do think some of the more popular reforms will stay."

Heh heh. I'm a cynic, so I suspect that some of the more popular reforms will be the ones that get "fixed."

[ihavenobias]

84. I hope you're right.

But as I explained in the OP, I think passing this bill would NOT provide a foundation to improve upon, quite the opposite.

[SoFlaJet]

44. Fuck the republicans ihavenobias

they'll run against it no matter what happens or what DOESN'T happen. I don't believe any of this will drive the dems further to the right of center in fact what's happening is it's bringing us back to the left as evidenced by Stupak's coalition falling apart and Kucinich changing his mind. I hope your lady is helped by this bill and I hope it'll help me and my family since we have no health care insurance and I'm 54 now...getting friggin old-I'm gonna be needing it pretty soon-hell I could have used it a few times in the past. There, that's the end of the longest run-on sentence I ever wrote.

[Mithreal]

46. Stupak's coalition was smoke and mirrors.

[grahamhgreen]

74. Don't worry, when this passes, we will all be f*cked, except for big insurance. nt

[Mithreal]

45. Repuplicans could get a real win out of this.

Scaring President Obama into passing anything and allying the Dem Party with the greed driven.

While I can't say Democrats have played this well, this has been very well played by Republicans. Americans already knew who R's represent and that they have the courage of their convictions. Republican must be salivating over this. I know many R's feel that any HCR endangers their chances of repealing all the social safety nets, but Obama slew the real threat.

[SoFlaJet]

48. I think the republican party's

got NUTHIN', yea go run against insuring 95% of the country and for repealing it-great platform guys-Make Our Fucking Day and try

[Mithreal]

49. "insuring" or health care?

Don't walk into any traps.

[SoFlaJet]

51. this bill is going to help a lot of people

my family included-we're kinda poor and could use the help.

[Mithreal]

52. I can understand that. Would like to see how the following changes under the new bill.

[SoFlaJet]

54. the way I'm looking at it

is, it's a start and it can hopefully be made even better. BTW on edit; the chart made no sense to me-sorry

[Mithreal]

57. I understand what you are saying, I think anyway, can even appreciate to some extent.

The number of uninsured, underinsured is very relevant to any discussion on the effects of this health bill, no?

If medical bankruptcies aren't eliminated, meaning can't happen, then I have a hard time justifying baby steps.

The greed driven will find ways to outsmart and outmaneuver this bill, in a big way because they wrote a large part. How many people died from lack of health care today? How many health care companies died from withholding treatment or other inhumane practices? I guess we know who the real survivors will be.

It's done. Even while arguing about what looks like a done deal, I always knew the President would get what he wanted.

[SoFlaJet]

59. Let's get this thing passed

and see more democratic ideas get done. I'm a firm believer in the Voltaire saying "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good". I'm glad we can have discussions here on DU again where people can actually talk about the way they feel w/o somebody impugning their allegiance

[Mithreal]

61. I am wary of that phrase

not only because bad is indeed the enemy of the good. Perfect never had a chance. And the compromise, comprehensive quality affordable Public Option, was sacrificed by Dem Leadership as well.

Like begets like if you know what I mean.

[slipslidingaway]

50. knr nt

[Capitalocracy]

58. The status quo may be a better "base" to build on than the current bill

because in some ways, this may be a step backward, and the political climate will be affected by the passage of the current bill. The extra income from the mandate will lead to more insurance lobbyists, for one thing, and rather than building on the basis of a health care system that is long overdue for reform, we'll be building on the basis of an unsuccessful reform attempt gone awry, meaning a lot of people won't be interested in messing with it any more. I mean, if we have a mandate to buy at skyrocketing prices, who's going to want to get in the ring again and risk getting beat up even more? Without real progress, we're probably better off trying again later, and focusing on pressuring the Dems to pass real financial reform now to save their skins (ie seats) and be able to look at health care reform again from a position of strength.

[ihavenobias]

87. Exactly. n/t

[Eyerish]

60. K&R

[Turborama]

63. K&R for an interesting debate. n/t

[deaniac21]

68. We all die.

[amborin]

69. K&R

imho, Kucinich was emotionally blackmailed

this sham bill will be touted as a success by Obama and the DLC, when in fact it's a disaster

[icee]

71. Excellent post. The Repubs have checkmated the Dems and

will start collecting their winnings soon.

[RedCloud]

85. Polar opposite. They will be painted as those who tried to let Americans die!

I see an easy fight for the Democrats to win and don't forget Obama is bringing those troops back in September,

[ihavenobias]

86. In the short run I completely agree. It's a great short term political victory.

But per the OP, I've explained what I think of the medium/long term outcome will be.

[New Dawn]

73. Passing that bill = killing the Democratic Party

Anyone who doubts this will find out for themselves in the next two elections.

[Individualist]

75. Exactly.

[Cha]

88. Doom and Gloom..Yay.