DEVASTATING REPORT: If HCR Bill Doesn't Pass, it's Game Over by 2020

berni_mccoy

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Thu Mar-18-10 02:09 PM
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DEVASTATING REPORT: If HCR Bill Doesn't Pass, it's Game Over by 2020

An analysis by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation analyzes what happens if the currently proposed HCR does not happen. It's a frightening picture that shows only the wealthy receiving health care and the fundamental destruction of the middle class. Yes, we are in a crisis now. Without immediate reform, the consequences are a cataclysm to the unsustainable socio-economic foundation of the U.S.

Summary here: http://www.rwjf.org/healthreform/product.jsp?id=57449

Report here: http://www.rwjf.org/files/research/57449.pdf

What happens if the current HCR Bill doesn't pass? Some highlights:

-The number of uninsured Americans could grow by 10 million people in just five years, and spending on government health care programs for the poor could more than double by 2020

- By 2015, there could be 59.7 million people uninsured. The number could swell to 67.6 million by 2020.

- Middle-class households would suffer most without reform, 28% of middle-class households uninsured by 2020.

- Only 23% of employers would offer any form of coverage, and those will see an increase in costs by more than 79%.

From their conclusion:

Without significant reform that makes health insurance more accessible and affordable while reducing the rate of health care cost growth over time, the number of uninsured and health care spending would both increase dramatically. The ranks of the uninsured would increasingly be filled with middle-income, higher-income, and older individuals who have coverage now. Medicaid enrollment would increase because of the erosion of private coverage. Costs per enrollee would also increase because of medical care inflation. As a result, the cost of financing public programs would place added burden on taxpayers. The rising cost of caring for a growing number of uninsured persons through safety net programs would also add to taxpayer burdens. Employers would face sharply increasing health care premiums and as a result, many small and medium-sized firms would
stop offering coverage.
...
If reforms like those recently passed by the House and Senate are enacted, government expenditures would increase more than they would without reform because of increases in Medicaid eligibility and enrollment and subsidies to low-income people. Increases in Medicaid spending would be tempered because there would be less erosion of private insurance and coverage would be available through the exchanges. Spending on uncompensated care for the uninsured would also fall. The increases in government expenditure would also be affected by the cost containment provisions ultimately enacted. Employer spending would also grow under reform, though it should be lower for small firms who have access to exchanges and tax credits. Comprehensive health reform would stem the continuous erosion in the number of Americans with health care coverage and make coverage more affordable for a large number of lower- income families. Reform would also decrease financial pressures on the hospitals and clinics that provide care to the uninsured, reduce many system inefficiencies, and ultimately improve the health and financial security of Americans. While enacting health reform will be difficult and expensive, the cost of failure is also high and probably unsustainable.

In other words, the currently proposed reform has a cost, but that cost is:
1. Planned, budgeted and paid for
2. Provides coverage to 32 million Americans, preventing a much faster increase in costs on Medicaid and Medicare
3. Covers the poor and excluded
4. Prevents an unsustainable train-wreck that we are currently headed for if nothing is done. This disaster will lead to the unnecessary deaths of millions of people.

If we fail to pass this HCR, millions will needlessly die, the economy would utterly fail and our society would enter a disastrous condition that hasn't been seen since the great depression.

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation is the country's largest philanthropic organization dedicated solely to health and health care.