Bookmark This Thread: Repubs Are Going To Get Their CLOCKS CLEANED AGAIN In Nov.

[Beetwasher]

They are not going to pick up many, if any seats in Nov. They may in fact lose a few more in each chamber. That's my prediction. They may pick off a few vulnerable dems, but those will be offset by other Dem wins.

IMO, if the Dems merely hold their own in Nov., that amounts to cleaning the Repub clocks, considering it's supposed to be a bloodbath for the Dems. If it's not a bloodbath, Dems win.

[LynneSin]

1. I don't think it's going to be as bad as people want to make it out to believe...

it ain't going to be 1994, that's for sure!

[FSogol]

2. Agreed. n/t

[tridim]

3. When is the last time a party bucked the mid-term trend of losing seats?

Has it ever happened?

If it does, whoa!

[GrantDem]

5. 2002 I believe...

Dubya riding the "terrist" fear wave.

[tridim]

8. That was because of 9/11 and terra.

I guess I'm asking this question in the context of positive legislation instead of luck and fear.

[quiller4]

11. It has happened but it is rare.

[Beetwasher]

16. 2002-Though I'm Not Necessarily Saying They Will Buck The Trend

Though it is possible. I predict that it will not be a bloodbath though and that losses will be minimal.

[Hell Hath No Fury]

4. I will certainly bookmark this thread.

And I will have some crow pie ready for which of us is proven wrong.

[Individualist]

6. +1

[Beetwasher]

13. What Are Your Parameters For Being Right or Wrong?

I will say I'm wrong if Dems lose more than 2 seats in the Senate and 10 in the house.

Keep in mind, I'm not predicting they WILL gain seats (though they might), but that there will not be a bloodbath.

[rocktivity]

7. Any chance of us getting back to 60 in the Senate

or maybe beyond?

:headbang:
rocktivity

[Beetwasher]

14. I Think So

Not good odds, at least right now, but yes, I think there's an outside shot.

[Juche]

9. No, the dems will lose big in november

Sadly due to a variety of reasons. Midterms are periods when dem voters tend to stay home. Plus dems aren't as motivated as the GOP. 538 predicts about 54-55 dem senate seats and probably 225 or so house seats after 2010 for the dems. However I think/hope many of the lost house seats will be conservadems and blue dogs and not more reliable dems like the ones in the CBC, CPC, etc.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/2010

Nate Silver had extremely accurate predictions for what would happen in 2008, even predicting which senate seats would flip and what all states Obama would win. He says the dems are going to lose a good number of seats.

However if the dems focus on the close senate races to pick up a few seats in MO or NH, and keep house race losses to conservadems (who aren't very reliable anyway, I'd rather have a conservadem replaced by a GOP candidate than a member of the progressive caucus) it won't be a huge loss.


However the election is 7 months away. And Silver's predictions for Obama changed a lot in the last few months before the election.

[Beaverhausen]

10. I think they might win back a few, but nowhere near what they think

[tekisui]

12. I think the Dems will hold majorities in both houses.

Goppers will make some gains in the House, less in the Senate. It won't be a landslide for either side, though.

[kestrel91316]

15. I think you're right. I think the RW has seriously misread the American people on this.