http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/03/who_is_left_uninsured_by_the_h.html<snip>Here you're seeing 159 million Americans on the employer market, 44 million on Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program, 25 million on the non-group/other market, 24 million in the exchanges, and 22 million left uninsured. The uninsured category has gone from the second largest to the absolute smallest. And though there's no public option, there are a lot more people eligible for public programs. But all in all, only 40 million Americans are in a different insurance situation than would otherwise have been the case. Three-quarters of them would've been otherwise uninsured, and a few more would've been on the individual markets or getting insurance through a small business who's now using the exchange.
But some of you have asked why there's an uninsured category at all. There are a couple of reasons. About a third of the remaining uninsured are illegal immigrants, who are ineligible for coverage through the program. Then there are some folks who have incomes below the individual mandate threshold. Under the terms of the individual mandate, if coverage would cost more than 8 percent of their monthly income, they can skip it. Other people will decide to pay the individual mandate's $750 penalty rather than purchase insurance. Still others will be eligible for public programs such as Medicaid but won't sign up.
So the population of the uninsured will be far reduced, and primarily composed of illegal immigrants, the few people who can't afford their insurance and aren't getting subsidies to help them purchase it, and people who have decided to pay the penalty rather than purchase insurance.