http://www.workingamerica.org/blog/2010/03/23/blaming-unemployment-insurance-for-unemployment/JPMorgan Chase released what it called an economic research report (pdf) last week that purports to show that extended unemployment insurance payments cause higher unemployment and longer-term unemployment.
Seriously.
the availability of these benefits has almost certainly played a significant role in the record rise in the average duration of unemployment. Consequently, they have also had a role in the stunning rise in the unemployment rate over the last two years.
Noting the current correlation of high unemployment, longer average duration of unemployment and expanded unemployment benefits, the giant, previously bailed-out Wall Street bank asserts:
The magnitude of these effects has been the subject of a vast amount of econometric investigation. The variable most studied is the degree to which unemployment duration increases for a given change in the maximum available duration of jobless benefits. Most estimates of this elasticity have centered on a finding that an increase of one week in the availability of benefits raises the average duration of unemployment by 0.2 week.
Taking an assumed national average of an additional 47 weeks of unemployment insurance payments to jobless workers, the report continues:
Based on the widely accepted 0.2 estimate of the responsiveness of average duration to the length of benefit availability, the 47 extra weeks of benefits could be expected to increase average unemployment spells by 9.4 weeks. Since only about half of the unemployed are eligible to receive unemployment benefits (the other half generally have not met the requirements for sufficient prior employment or lost their jobs through layoffs), the total average unemployment duration would be expected to increase by 4.7 weeks.
FULL story at link.