2010 election predictions?

[cecilfirefox]

I'm actually really partial to this website-

www.electionprojection.com

Part of the reason I lean towards it is because the man who runs it is actually fairly conservative- and he's not predicting enormous gains. If anything, it tells me he applies a little scrutiny to actual polls and districts he's looking at.

In short, he expects us to loose about 7 seats in the Senate and roughly around 20 in the House.

What do you guys think?

[quiller4]

1. I think it will be more like 3 Senate and 12 House and that is net

because I believe that there will be a few flips from R to D as well.

[AzNick]

3. You are right. Please, Bachmann, get your ass kicked. nt

[AzNick]

2. That would be the worst case scenario

We would still retain a majority until 2012 when Obama can carry back a lot of Dems to Congress.

Now if something major happens, like something stupid on the right, like an act of violence and the people of this great nation realizing what lunatics they are, or if the jobs numbers improve, the scenario can only get better and we may only lose 3 or 4 in the Senate, not too many in the house.

The T.P. is also likely to take a lot of their votes away.

[cecilfirefox]

4. I can handle a 20 seat loss. I couldn't stand the thought of Boehner being Speaker. nt

[bobburgster]

5. UGH! the thought makes me ill.

[PhD]

6. 8 losses in the Senate, 30ish in the House

Senate losses in order of likelihood:

North Dakota
Delaware
Indiana
Arkansas
Nevada
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Illinois or California

The last one I know is a bit of a shocker, but I live in California and am very surprised by the amount of anger/disappointment/apathy I've seen with Boxer. Especially from moderate to left-of-center friends.

I also don't see any likely pickups for Democratic senate candidates at this point. Missouri, maybe.

[dmr]

7. I watch what Nate Silver says at FiveThirtyEight

It's all subjective, and so much can happen from now til then. I think we're going to be on a wild ride while a lot of money goes out to the misbehaving T-baggers.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/democrats-now-project-to-hold-average.html

Democrats now project to hold an average of 54.0 seats when the Senate convenes in January, 2011, according to our latest forecast, and Republicans 46.0. This reflects a roughly one-seat improvement for Republicans since our previous forecast on March 10th.

Republicans now have about a 10 percent chance of taking an outright majority of Senate seats, according to the model, up slightly from before -- and about an 18 percent chance of getting to at least a tie. Democrats still have about an 8 percent chance, on the other hand, of recovering a 60-seat majority -- although obviously this would require a substantial shift in the national political environment. None of our analysis directly reflects any potential impact from the Democrats' passage of their health care bill

[RonSunn]

8. Plenty of time for voters to see the good

Unemployment goes down
Market goes up

Teabaggers keep caring racist signs to be photographed

I am not going to concede the republicans will gain anything until I see September polls.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Thank you....

and welcome to DU!

[FBaggins]

10. Market-maybe... Unemployment-no

It's possible that an improving market will aide us in November - though I think that's unlikely given how far it has already run up.

But it's just about too late for unemployment to improve substantialy. There's a delay for such improvement to impact voters' perception of the economy. You usually see numbers from July as about the last ones that signoficantly impact an election.

[Double T]

11. Losses resulting in gridlock where little or nothing important gets done.

It did not have to be this way; the opportunity of our lifetime will have been lost.

[NecklyTyler]

12. Democrats will pick up 3 seats in the House and one seat in the Senate

Don't believe the Main $tream Media lie about the Democrats losing the House in November. The M$M started this lie the day President Obama took office, and have been pounding it home for over a year. The fact is we still have the same support from the American voters we had back in 2008, and it will show in the Mid Terms. The Media can tell the big lie all they want, but the only poll that counts is the one at the ballot box in November

[struggle4progress]

13. Election predictions are typically campaign propaganda. Both demoralization

and over-confidence can be ruinous. If you want to win in 2010, don't take the polls too seriously: just get out there and do the work

[Brundle_Fly]

14. No matter how you slice it we cannot account for

32 million new healthcare recipients, and possibly 32 million swayed or new voters.

The GOP running on a repeal & hell no platform is ridiculous... without "NEW" ideas, what is there to vote for?

[ThomWV]

15. I don't think Democrats will suffer any net loss at all.