Why The Dems Will Do Better In The Fall Than Anyone Currently Thinks

[Me.]

While this runs counter-intuitive to most prognostications, I don’t think the R’s will pick up even half the 55-60 seats Nate Silver says they have a crack at. Here’s why.

On the plus side, the D’s are finally starting to get their act together. In 6 months HCR will be starting to implement and the fear balloon is going to deflate. Paul Volcker is pushing for real financial reform and the WH is beginning to listen. Also, we will leave Iraq which will be a huge plus.

As for the R’s, I believe their ‘hell no’ strategy will fail them but as they are the stupidest bunch of politicians to enter the halls of Congress, fear will render them unable to change course or strategy. Not that they could come up with a new one even if they wanted to. Besides, the teabag devil has got them by the tail and their fearless leader, Rush, the only one in the party who is unafraid, won’t let them

And then there is the human factor to consider. People will put up with a tantrum throwing child for just so long and then they are sent to their room for an extended time out. Even today, the likes of DeMint and Bachman were on the morning shows spouting their hate and fear. The history of this country tells us that while demagoguery enthralls the nation from time to time, its life span is relatively short. Something always happens to expose these hucksters and I think that by this fall the revulsion which always follows a period such as this will rear its head.

Also, keep in mind that at this point only 25% of the country identifies themselves as Republicans and….if the D’s keep their newly found spines erect, the base will get out to vote.

[MadMaddie]

1. I agree with you.

This is why I have stopped talking to my Repug co-workers about the November elections. I am in the let's wait and see what happens....

The more Palin gets out and keeps spreading her vileness around and the more the Repug Congress folks keep talking about "No" and not talking about how to help the country people will tire of it.

[Me.]

4. As To Palin

Tina Fey is hosting the April 10 SNL. Maybe she will do another take-down of La Palin.

[Yavin4]

2. 8%

Elections are either about hope or fear.

If the UE rate is 8% or lower by the Fall, then Dem losses will be at a minimum. If it's higher than 8%, then Dem losses will be significant. If it's higher than 10%, one entire chamber of congress will turn over.

With HCR out of the way, this election turns on jobs, nothing else. UE people, like me, are living with high anxiety and fear, but unlike me, most people are not politically aware so they will gravitate to anyone who says that they will allay their fears.

However, if that rate is 8% or lower, then the election will be about hope.

[zipplewrath]

8. Bingo

The primary concern for the democrats will be the economy and jobs. If the perception is that we are doing better (8% may be more than it needs, anything below 10 might be enough) it will favor the dems. About the only thing that could really work against them is employers to use the excuse of the health insurance reforms to change salaries, benefits, or laying people off. It won't even have to be true, they'll just use it as an excuse.

I figure we were losing senate seats no matter what. 60 is just flat out alot of seats, and with the distorted distribution of seats, it was always going to be hard to hold. The house is roughly the same too, although for different reasons. There's been alot of gerrymandering out there and the GOP holds an advantage in too many states.

I also never thought we lose control of either house. It's really just a matter of WHO loses and wins. Strangely, the loss of some blue dogs, and picking up some progressives, could actually work in our favor because it establishes that trying to "play to the middle" won't get you anywhere.

[Me.]

11. 'the distorted distribution'

I read on another thread that the census may eliminate Michelle Bachman's district. Instead of making a stance against the census she should've mailed hers in. :evilgrin:

[MadMaddie]

17. Well when her district loses federal money they won't

see the correlation between the census and no dollars.

[unblock]

13. it certainly won't be 8% or below by november. but i disagree with your conclusion

unemployment under fdr was terrible yet he kept getting re-elected.

if obama does more, both from a policy and a political perspective to address jobs, he'll get credit for trying.
republicans still have the taint of having gotten us into this mess, so i don't see voters eager to give the fuck-ups another shot after basically just 2 years.

i think all he really needs is for the unemployment rate to start going down.

[Yavin4]

15. First, the Political Climate Today vs FDR's Era Is Completely Different

FDR didn't have a mass media purposely echoing hysterical right wing talking points. Yes, there were a lot of facists during his day, but they were on the fringe.

Second, trying won't be good enough to voters who are frightened.

Third, the Republican taint is all on Bush, and he won't be around this time.

Finally, a UE rate above 8% spells major trouble for the Dems. Above 10%, and one entire chamber will fall.

[unblock]

16. from just a number point of view, something between 8% and 10% is a very safe bet.

below 8% means a huge amount of jobs created in half a year. extremely unlikely.

above 10% is possible but it means things get worse in the next 6 months. the stock market has clearly said things are getting better over the next 6 months. true, the stock market is a better predictor of corporate profits than it is of domestic job creation, but there is still a fair correlation.

plus obama's stimulus spending will continue to play well as those construction jobs open up in the warmer weather.

i'd say there's:
a 5% chance of being below 8%;
a 10% chance of being above 10%; and
an 85% chance of being in between.


i hope obama really gets out and campaigns in the key races. he's got a lot to toot his horn about, including health care, the stimulus package, and various tax credits like the help america work credit.

[Jade Fox]

3. I think you are right......

media predictions to the contrary.

The media in this country continue to buy/push Right-wing talking points in the hopes that will make them come true. Look how WRONG they were about HRC.

[Me.]

7. Yep

Also, look at how proud they all are saying, 'hell no'. The sell-by date on that is going to expire. Hell no on extending benefits for jobless people...isn't that a winning position.

[Jade Fox]

10. Yes, "Hell no" is a reactionary, dead end position.....

which may make the Teabaggers happy, but not much else. It leaves only the absurd & dangerous choice of responding with violence and threats.

[yodermon]

5. FYLTGE.

:thumbsup:

[veganlush]

6. I agree with you ..and hope you are right and also hope

..that we collectively continue to push back and get the message out about the fruitcakes that are demonizing the Democrats, keep the pressure on by calling and thanking your reps, writing letters to the editor, calling radio shows, etc...

[Me.]

9. The Success Of HRC

Had an additional beneficial effect of giving the dems a 'yes we can' boost.

[Xenotime]

12. I have noticed those who were against HCR has started to shut up.

[pscot]

14. Republican stupidity is a strong argument

but we can't depend on Repukes to out-stupid the voters. The Congress and the President need to take care of business. If they prove that they're worth voting for things will turn out OK.

[Me.]

18. And Don't Forget

the old 'doing the same thing over and over, hoping for a different result'