So will DOW hit 11,000 today?

[Statistical]

Poll question: So will DOW hit 11,000 today?

At 10:12 DOW is at 10,943.85. Will it hit 11K today?

[Statistical]

1. 34 views only 4 votes.

Obviously 30 people were interested enough to click on the thread but then didn't want to vote. It takes all of 2 seconds?

[safeinOhio]

3. Because you left out the obvious answer

It might or might not. Most likely bounce around that number for a while and then head up or down as investors digest more information.

[Statistical]

6. Question wasn't will it permanently stay above 11,000 but it if it hits 11,000.

If is hits 11,000 even for one tick = Yes.
If is closes the day and high is 10,999.999 or lower = No.

[Captain Hilts]

2. In celebration of Rachel Maddow's and Susan Boyle's birthdays, yes. nt

[MajorChode]

4. The bigger question is will it break 20K before Obama's 1st term is up

It wouldn't surprise me much if it did. Of course, it would be the GOPher's worst nightmare.

[Rebubula]

5. 20k

That is a very unlikely number, but it will return to around 13k - at least according to my Magic 8 Ball

[MajorChode]

7. It's not unrealistic and there's plenty of historic precedent

Significant upticks in the stock market often follow recessions. It happened both during the Raygun and Clinton presidencies. Just follow my lead and we'll all be filthy rich. No shit.

[Statistical]

10. There is no historical precedent for that kinda of "uptick".

Oct 1990. DJIA bottoms at 3831.
Oct 1994. DJIA 3831 (4 years after bottom)
Gain: 57%
Annualized: 12%

Oct 2002. DJIA bottoms at 7700.
Oct 2007. Peak is 14093 (5 years after bottom)
Gain: 83%
Annualized: 13%

Your "prediction"
March 2009. DJIA bottoms at 6626
Feb 2013. Your projected peak 20,000 (roughly 4 years from bottom)
Gain: 201%
Annualized: 32%

Markets tend to recover rapidly after recession however not that rapidly. Also we have already gained 40% from the bottom.

[MajorChode]

12. I said I wouldn't be surprised. I didn't say I thought it was likely

There have been 3 year periods where the DJIA has averaged >22% per year and a significant uptick typically happens within a few years of a recession. Whether those two events have happened in this close proximity, I don't know and really don't care to research. Even if it had or hadn't, there's too many other economic variables to consider. It's irrelevant to what I said anyway, so there's not much point into picking as many nits as you are.

[Statistical]

8. To reach 20K by end of first term would be an annualized return of >22%.

It is unlikely the market will return 22% average for next 3 years.

It likely will be broken by end of second term though, that would only require annualized return of 9%.

[NeedleCast]

9. Maybe, the market loves mile stones

It might break 11,000 today, but I think will close below it.

[Statistical]

11. If it does that I think I will lighten up.

Markets seems to be looking for an excuse for at least a minor correction.

I think there is too much money on sidelines waiting for a "deal" for market to fall much though (barring something really bad, unemployment rises, violence in oil state, etc).

[Statistical]

13. So looks like the Nos called it right. Close: 10,927.07

Still not sure why a full 1/3 thinks I don't pay enough taxes. :)